39 research outputs found
Modeling freshwater quality scenarios with ecosystem-based adaptation in the headwaters of the Cantareira system, Brazil
Although hydrologic models provide hypothesis testing of complex
dynamics occurring at catchments, freshwater quality modeling is
still incipient at many subtropical headwaters. In Brazil, a few
modeling studies assess freshwater nutrients, limiting policies on
hydrologic ecosystem services. This paper aims to compare freshwater
quality scenarios under different land-use and land-cover (LULC) change,
one of them related to ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA), in
Brazilian headwaters. Using the spatially semi-distributed Soil and
Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, nitrate, total phosphorous (TP) and
sediment were modeled in catchments ranging from 7.2 to
1037 km2. These headwaters were eligible areas of the
Brazilian payment for ecosystem services (PES) projects in the
Cantareira water supply system, which had supplied water to
9 million people in the São Paulo metropolitan region (SPMR). We considered
SWAT modeling of three LULC scenarios: (i) recent past scenario
(S1), with historical LULC in 1990; (ii) current land-use
scenario (S2), with LULC for the period 2010–2015 with field
validation; and (iii) future land-use scenario with PES
(S2 + EbA). This latter scenario proposed forest cover
restoration through EbA following the river basin plan by
2035. These three LULC scenarios were tested with a selected record
of rainfall and evapotranspiration observed in 2006–2014, with the
occurrence of extreme droughts. To assess hydrologic services, we
proposed the hydrologic service index (HSI), as a new composite
metric comparing water pollution levels (WPL) for reference
catchments, related to the grey water footprint (greyWF) and water
yield. On the one hand, water quality simulations allowed for the
regionalization of greyWF at spatial scales under LULC
scenarios. According to the critical threshold, HSI identified areas
as less or more sustainable catchments. On the other hand,
conservation practices simulated through the S2 + EbA scenario
envisaged not only additional and viable best management practices (BMP),
but also preventive decision-making at the headwaters of water
supply systems.</p
Additive scales in degenerative disease - calculation of effect sizes and clinical judgment
<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The therapeutic efficacy of an intervention is often assessed in clinical trials by scales measuring multiple diverse activities that are added to produce a cumulative global score. Medical communities and health care systems subsequently use these data to calculate pooled effect sizes to compare treatments. This is done because major doubt has been cast over the clinical relevance of statistically significant findings relying on <it>p </it>values with the potential to report chance findings. Hence in an aim to overcome this pooling the results of clinical studies into a meta-analyses with a statistical calculus has been assumed to be a more definitive way of deciding of efficacy.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We simulate the therapeutic effects as measured with additive scales in patient cohorts with different disease severity and assess the limitations of an effect size calculation of additive scales which are proven mathematically.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We demonstrate that the major problem, which cannot be overcome by current numerical methods, is the complex nature and neurobiological foundation of clinical psychiatric endpoints in particular and additive scales in general. This is particularly relevant for endpoints used in dementia research. 'Cognition' is composed of functions such as memory, attention, orientation and many more. These individual functions decline in varied and non-linear ways. Here we demonstrate that with progressive diseases cumulative values from multidimensional scales are subject to distortion by the limitations of the additive scale. The non-linearity of the decline of function impedes the calculation of effect sizes based on cumulative values from these multidimensional scales.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Statistical analysis needs to be guided by boundaries of the biological condition. Alternatively, we suggest a different approach avoiding the error imposed by over-analysis of cumulative global scores from additive scales.</p
Alzheimer’s Disease Assessment Scale–Cognitive subscale variants in mild cognitive impairment and mild Alzheimer’s disease: change over time and the effect of enrichment strategies
Morphology of seeds and seedlings of four species of Vigna Savi (Leguminosae, Phaseolinae)
Integração entre curvas de permanência de quantidade e qualidade da água como uma ferramenta para a gestão eficiente dos recursos hídricos
Panta Rhei benchmark dataset: socio-hydrological data of paired events of floods and droughts
As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better
understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk
management and climate adaptation. However, there is currently a lack of comprehensive, empirical data about
the processes, interactions, and feedbacks in complex human–water systems leading to flood and drought impacts. Here we present a benchmark dataset containing socio-hydrological data of paired events, i.e. two floods
or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The 45 paired events occurred in 42 different study areas and
cover a wide range of socio-economic and hydro-climatic conditions. The dataset is unique in covering both
floods and droughts, in the number of cases assessed and in the quantity of socio-hydrological data. The benchmark dataset comprises (1) detailed review-style reports about the events and key processes between the two
events of a pair; (2) the key data table containing variables that assess the indicators which characterize management shortcomings, hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and impacts of all events; and (3) a table of the indicators
of change that indicate the differences between the first and second event of a pair. The advantages of the
dataset are that it enables comparative analyses across all the paired events based on the indicators of change
and allows for detailed context- and location-specific assessments based on the extensive data and reports of
the individual study areas. The dataset can be used by the scientific community for exploratory data analyses, e.g. focused on causal links between risk management; changes in hazard, exposure and vulnerability; and
flood or drought impacts. The data can also be used for the development, calibration, and validation of sociohydrological models. The dataset is available to the public through the GFZ Data Services (Kreibich et al., 2023,
https://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.4.4.2023.001)
Hydrologic pulses and remaining natural vegetation in Jaú and Jacaré-Pepira watersheds
The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management
Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally1,2, yet their impacts are still increasing3. An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data4,5. On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced. If the second event was much more hazardous than the first, its impact was almost always higher. This is because management was not designed to deal with such extreme events: for example, they exceeded the design levels of levees and reservoirs. In two success stories, the impact of the second, more hazardous, event was lower, as a result of improved risk management governance and high investment in integrated management. The observed difficulty of managing unprecedented events is alarming, given that more extreme hydrological events are projected owing to climate change3