Scientific and human errors in a snow model intercomparison

International audienceTwenty-seven models participated in the Earth System Model - Snow Model Intercomparison Project (ESM-SnowMIP), the most data-rich MIP dedicated to snow modelling. Our findings do not support the hypothesis advanced by previous snow MIPs: evaluating models against more variables, and providing evaluation datasets extended temporally and spatially does not facilitate identification of key new processes requiring improvement to model snow mass and energy budgets, even at point scales. In fact, the same modelling issues identified by previous snow MIPs arose: albedo is a major source of uncertainty, surface exchange parametrizations are problematic and individual model performance is inconsistent. This lack of progress is attributed partly to the large number of human errors that led to anomalous model behaviour and to numerous resubmissions. It is unclear how widespread such errors are in our field and others; dedicated time and resources will be needed to tackle this issue to prevent highly sophisticated models and their research outputs from being vulnerable because of avoidable human mistakes. The design of and the data available to successive snow MIPs were also questioned. Evaluation of models against bulk snow properties was found to be sufficient for15 some but inappropriate for more complex snow models whose skills at simulating internal snow properties remained untested. Discussions between the authors of this paper on the purpose of MIPs revealed varied, and sometimes contradictory, motivations behind their participation. These findings started a collaborative effort to adapt future snow MIPs to respond to the diverse needs of the communit

Snow cover duration trends observed at sites and predicted by multiple models

The 30-year simulations of seasonal snow cover in 22 physically based models driven with bias-corrected meteorological reanalyses are examined at four sites with long records of snow observations. Annual snow cover durations differ widely between models, but interannual variations are strongly correlated because of the common driving data. No significant trends are observed in starting dates for seasonal snow cover, but there are significant trends towards snow cover ending earlier at two of the sites in observations and most of the models. A simplified model with just two parameters controlling solar radiation and sensible heat contributions to snowmelt spans the ranges of snow cover durations and trends. This model predicts that sites where snow persists beyond annual peaks in solar radiation and air temperature will experience rapid decreases in snow cover duration with warming as snow begins to melt earlier and at times of year with more energy available for melting

Reindeer grazing increases summer albedo by reducing shrub abundance in Arctic tundra

Previous studies have shown that climate warming is causing shrub cover to increase at high latitudes. Increased shrub cover generally lowers surface albedo, which results in higher energy absorption and further warming. In parts of Fennoscandia, herbivory is known to control vegetation height and abundance, and thus preventing this positive feedback. Here, we combine field measurements of albedo, herbivory and vegetation characteristics in four topographically-defined vegetation types of varying shrub height and abundance with land surface modeling (JULES) to investigate if reindeer grazing can influence the energy balance of an arctic tundra. We find that when reindeer reduces shrub height and abundance, summer albedo increases in both Betula nana-dominated heath vegetation and Salix glauca-dominated willow depressions. Model results reveal associated lower net radiation, and latent and sensible heat fluxes in heavily-grazed sites in all shrub-dominated vegetation types. Our results also suggest that the structural shift from graminoid to shrub tundra drives the difference in summer albedo, rather than shifts from dwarf-shrub to tall-shrub tundra. Reindeer has thus a potential cooling effect on climate by increasing summer albedo and decreasing net radiation, which highlights the importance of mammalian herbivores for the earth system beyond their local grazing impacts. However, the strong effects of reindeer on albedo are probably restricted to areas with high reindeer densities, since a dramatic vegetation change is essential. The importance of these processes across the whole range of reindeer densities found in the arctic tundra needs to be further evaluated