Ecosystem modeling to understand global change effects to terrestrial and fresh water systems

2013 Spring.Includes bibliographical references.Concurrent changes in climate, atmospheric nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) deposition, and increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) affect ecosystems in complex ways. Atmospheric deposition of S and N species have the potential to acidify terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, but nitrate and ammonium are also critical nutrients for plant and microbial productivity and are a potential cause of eutrophication. Climate change and CO2 fertilization, with or without changes in N deposition, may affect rates of plant growth, water availability, soil organic matter decomposition rates, and net greenhouse gas flux. I developed a non-spatial biogeochemical model to simulate soil and surface water chemistry by linking the daily version of the CENTURY ecosystem model (DayCent) with a low temperature aqueous geochemical model, PHREEQC. The coupled model, DayCent-Chem, simulates the daily dynamics of plant production, soil organic matter, cation exchange, mineral weathering, elution, stream discharge, and solute concentrations in soil water and stream flow. The model was first validated against a rich data set for an alpine watershed in Rocky Mountain National Park, then for seven other forested montane and alpine watersheds in the United States. I modeled how much nitrogen deposition it takes to acidify an alpine watershed, and whether the rate at which deposition increases matters. I also used the model to investigate the combined effects of N deposition, warming, and increasing CO2 over the period 1980-2075 at seven forested montane and two alpine watersheds by looking at changes to net ecosystem production, soil organic C, soil nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions, and stream nitrate. I found that N was the main driver of change to net ecosystem greenhouse gas flux with warming and CO2 fertilization playing lesser roles. Overall, simulations with DayCent-Chem suggest individual site characteristics and historical patterns of N deposition are important determinants of forest or alpine ecosystem responses to global change. Both the ecological response and the hydrochemical response to these human-caused drivers of global change are of interest to scientists as well as regulatory and land management agencies. This model is appropriate for accurately describing the ecosystem and surface water chemical response of small watersheds to atmospheric deposition and climate change

Sensitivity of a high‐elevation rocky mountain watershed to altered climate and CO2

We explored the hydrologic and ecological responses of a headwater mountain catchment, Loch Vale watershed, to climate change and doubling of atmospheric CO2 scenarios using the Regional Hydro‐Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys). A slight (2°C) cooling, comparable to conditions observed over the past 40 years, led to greater snowpack and slightly less runoff, evaporation, transpiration, and plant productivity. An increase of 2°C yielded the opposite response, but model output for an increase of 4°C showed dramatic changes in timing of hydrologic responses. The snowpack was reduced by 50%, and runoff and soil water increased and occurred 4–5 weeks earlier with 4°C warming. Alpine tundra photosynthetic rates responded more to warmer and wetter conditions than subalpine forest, but subalpine forest showed a greater response to doubling of atmospheric CO2 than tundra. Even though water use efficiency increased with the double CO2 scenario, this had little effect on basin‐wide runoff because the catchment is largely unvegetated. Changes in winter and spring climate conditions were more important to hydrologic and vegetation dynamics than changes that occurred during summer

EFFECTS OF LAND COVER, WATER REDISTRIBUTION, AND TEMPERATURE ON ECOSYSTEM PROCESSES IN THE SOUTH PLATTE BASIN

Over one‐third of the land area in the South Platte Basin of Colorado, Nebraska, and Wyoming, has been converted to croplands. Irrigated cropland now comprises 8% of the basin, while dry croplands make up 31%. We used the RHESSys model to compare the changes in plant productivity and vegetation‐related hydrological processes that occurred as a result of either land cover alteration or directional temperature changes (−2°C, +4°C). Land cover change exerted more control over annual plant productivity and water fluxes for converted grasslands, while the effect of temperature changes on productivity and water fluxes was stronger in the mountain vegetation. Throughout the basin, land cover change increased the annual loss of water to the atmosphere by 114 mm via evaporation and transpiration, an increase of 37%. Both irrigated and nonirrigated grains became active earlier in the year than shortgrass steppe, leading to a seasonal shift in water losses to the atmosphere. Basin‐wide photosynthesis increased by 80% due to grain production. In contrast, a 4°C warming scenario caused annual transpiration to increase by only 3% and annual evaporation to increase by 28%, for a total increase of 71 mm. Warming decreased basin‐wide photosynthesis by 16%. There is a large elevational range from east to west in the South Platte Basin, which encompasses the western edge of the Great Plains and the eastern front of the Rocky Mountains. This elevational gain is accompanied by great changes in topographic complexity, vegetation type, and climate. Shortgrass steppe and crops found at elevations between 850 and 1800 m give way to coniferous forests and tundra between 1800 and 4000 m. Climate is increasingly dominated by winter snow precipitation with increasing elevation, and the timing of snowmelt influences tundra and forest ecosystem productivity, soil moisture, and downstream discharge. Mean annual precipitation of \u3c500 mm on the plains below 1800 m is far less than potential evapotranspiration of 1000–1500 mm and is insufficient for optimum plant productivity. The changes in water flux and photosynthesis from conversion of steppe to cropland are the result of redistribution of snowmelt water from the mountains and groundwater pumping through irrigation projects

Simulations of snow distribution and hydrology in a mountain basin

We applied a version of the Regional Hydro‐Ecologic Simulation System (RHESSys) that implements snow redistribution, elevation partitioning, and wind‐driven sublimation to Loch Vale Watershed (LVWS), an alpine‐subalpine Rocky Mountain catchment where snow accumulation and ablation dominate the hydrologic cycle. We compared simulated discharge to measured discharge and the simulated snow distribution to photogrammetrically rectified aerial (remotely sensed) images. Snow redistribution was governed by a topographic similarity index. We subdivided each hillslope into elevation bands that had homogeneous climate extrapolated from observed climate. We created a distributed wind speed field that was used in conjunction with daily measured wind speeds to estimate sublimation. Modeling snow redistribution was critical to estimating the timing and magnitude of discharge. Incorporating elevation partitioning improved estimated timing of discharge but did not improve patterns of snow cover since wind was the dominant controller of areal snow patterns. Simulating wind‐driven sublimation was necessary to predict moisture losses

Simulation of the effects of photodecay on long-term litter decay using DayCent

Recent studies have found that solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation significantly shifts the mass loss and nitrogen dynamics of plant litter decomposition in semi-arid and arid ecosystems. In this study, we examined the role of photodegradation in litter decomposition by using the DayCent-UV biogeochemical model. DayCent-UV incorporated the following mechanisms related to UV radiation: (1) direct photolysis, (2) facilitation of microbial decomposition via production of labile materials, and (3) microbial inhibition effects. We also allowed maximum photodecay rate of the structural litter pool to vary with litter\u27s initial lignin fraction in the model. We calibrated DayCent-UV with observed ecosystem variables (e.g., volumetric soil water content, live biomass, actual evapotranspiration, and net ecosystem exchange), and validated the optimized model with Long-Term Intersite Decomposition Experiment (LIDET) observations of remaining carbon and nitrogen at three semi-arid sites in Western United States. DayCent-UV better simulated the observed linear carbon loss patterns and the persistent net nitrogen mineralization in the 10-year LIDET experiment at the three sites than the model without UV decomposition. In the DayCent-UV equilibrium model runs, UV decomposition increased aboveground and belowground plant production, surface net nitrogen mineralization, and surface litter nitrogen pool, but decreased surface litter carbon, soil net nitrogen mineralization, and mineral soil carbon and nitrogen. In addition, UV decomposition had minimal impacts on trace gas emissions and biotic decomposition rates. The model results suggest that the most important ecological impact of photodecay of surface litter in dry grasslands is to increase N mineralization from the surface litter (25%), and decay rates of the surface litter (15%) and decrease the organic soil carbon and nitrogen (5%)

Metrics of biomass, live-weight gain and nitrogen loss of ryegrass sheep pasture in the 21st century

This study was partially supported by Soil to Nutrition, Rothamsted Research’s Institute Strategic Programme supported by the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBS/E/C/000I0320).The North Wyke Farm Platform is a UK National Capability, also supported by the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBS/E/C/000J0100).This study was also partially supported by the Natural Environment Research Council’s ADVENT project (NERC NE/M019691/1).Climate data were measured at the MIDAS Land Surface Station DLY3208 DEVON, UK, a weather station of the UK Meteorological Office. We would especially like to thank Dr Nadine Loick of Rothamsted Research for advice on preparation of N2O model calibration parameters, and the data team of the North Wyke Farm Platform. We owe our gratitude to the late Mr Robert Orr, grassland specialist at the North Wykesite, for his invaluable advice and information on sward growth.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Impact of historical land‐use changes on greenhouse gas exchange in the U.S. Great Plains, 1883–2003

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/117205/1/eap20112141105.pd

Advancing national greenhouse gas inventories for agriculture in developing countries : improving activity data, emission factors and software technology

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Divergent controls of soil organic carbon between observations and process-based models

The storage and cycling of soil organic carbon (SOC) are governed by multiple co-varying factors, including climate, plant productivity, edaphic properties, and disturbance history. Yet, it remains unclear which of these factors are the dominant predictors of observed SOC stocks, globally and within biomes, and how the role of these predictors varies between observations and process-based models. Here we use global observations and an ensemble of soil biogeochemical models to quantify the emergent importance of key state factors – namely, mean annual temperature, net primary productivity, and soil mineralogy – in explaining biome- to global-scale variation in SOC stocks. We use a machine-learning approach to disentangle the role of covariates and elucidate individual relationships with SOC, without imposing expected relationships a priori. While we observe qualitatively similar relationships between SOC and covariates in observations and models, the magnitude and degree of non-linearity vary substantially among the models and observations. Models appear to overemphasize the importance of temperature and primary productivity (especially in forests and herbaceous biomes, respectively), while observations suggest a greater relative importance of soil minerals. This mismatch is also evident globally. However, we observe agreement between observations and model outputs in select individual biomes – namely, temperate deciduous forests and grasslands, which both show stronger relationships of SOC stocks with temperature and productivity, respectively. This approach highlights biomes with the largest uncertainty and mismatch with observations for targeted model improvements. Understanding the role of dominant SOC controls, and the discrepancies between models and observations, globally and across biomes, is essential for improving and validating process representations in soil and ecosystem models for projections under novel future conditions

Simulating soil organic carbon in maize-based systems under improved agronomic management in Western Kenya

Improved management practices should be implemented in croplands in sub-Saharan Africa to enhance soil organic carbon (SOC) storage and/or reduce losses associated with land-use change, thereby addressing the challenge of ongoing soil degradation. DayCent, a process-based biogeochemical model, provides a useful tool for evaluating which management practices are most effective for SOC sequestration. Here, we used the DayCent model to simulate SOC using experimental data from two long-term field sites in western Kenya comprising of two widely promoted sustainable agricultural management practices: integrated nutrient management (i.e. mineral fertilizer and crop residues/farmyard manure incorporation) and conservation agriculture (i.e. minimum tillage and crop residue retention). At both sites, correlations between measured and simulated SOC were low to moderate (R2 of 0.25−0.55), and in most cases, the model produced fairly accurate prediction of the SOC trends with a low relative root mean squared error (RRMSE < 7%). Consistent with field measurements, simulated SOC declined under all improved management practices. The model projected annual SOC loss rates of between 0.32 to 0.35 Mg C ha-1 yr-1 in continuously tilled maize (Zea mays) systems without fertilizer or organic matter application over the period 2003–2050. The most effective practices in reducing the losses were the combined application of 4 Mg ha-1 of farmyard manure and 2 Mg ha-1 of maize residue retention (reducing losses up to 0.22 Mg C ha-1 yr-1), minimum tillage in combination with maize residue retention (0.21 Mg C ha-1 yr-1), and rotation of maize with soybean (Glycine max) under minimum tillage (0.17 Mg C ha-1 yr-1). Model results suggest that response of the passive SOC pool to the different management practices is a key driver of the long-term SOC trends at the two study sites. This study demonstrates the strength of the DayCent model in simulating SOC in maize systems under different agronomic management practices that are typical for western Kenya