Disease severity in hospitalized COVID-19 patients: comparing routine surveillance with cohort data from the LEOSS study in 2020 in Germany

Introduction Studies investigating risk factors for severe COVID-19 often lack information on the representativeness of the study population. Here, we investigate factors associated with severe COVID-19 and compare the representativeness of the dataset to the general population. Methods We used data from the Lean European Open Survey on SARS-CoV-2 infected patients (LEOSS) of hospitalized COVID-19 patients diagnosed in 2020 in Germany to identify associated factors for severe COVID-19, defined as progressing to a critical disease stage or death. To assess the representativeness, we compared the LEOSS cohort to cases of hospitalized patients in the German statutory notification data of the same time period. Descriptive methods and Poisson regression models were used. Results Overall, 6672 hospitalized patients from LEOSS and 132,943 hospitalized cases from the German statutory notification data were included. In LEOSS, patients above 76 years were less likely represented (34.3% vs. 44.1%). Moreover, mortality was lower (14.3% vs. 21.5%) especially among age groups above 66 years. Factors associated with a severe COVID-19 disease course in LEOSS included increasing age, male sex (adjusted risk ratio (aRR) 1.69, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.53–1.86), prior stem cell transplantation (aRR 2.27, 95% CI 1.53–3.38), and an elevated C-reactive protein at day of diagnosis (aRR 2.30, 95% CI 2.03–2.62). Conclusion We identified a broad range of factors associated with severe COVID-19 progression. However, the results may be less applicable for persons above 66 years since they experienced lower mortality in the LEOSS dataset compared to the statutory notification data.Peer Reviewe

Metabolic reconstitution of germ-free mice by a gnotobiotic microbiota varies over the circadian cycle.

The capacity of the intestinal microbiota to degrade otherwise indigestible diet components is known to greatly improve the recovery of energy from food. This has led to the hypothesis that increased digestive efficiency may underlie the contribution of the microbiota to obesity. OligoMM12-colonized gnotobiotic mice have a consistently higher fat mass than germ-free (GF) or fully colonized counterparts. We therefore investigated their food intake, digestion efficiency, energy expenditure, and respiratory quotient using a novel isolator-housed metabolic cage system, which allows long-term measurements without contamination risk. This demonstrated that microbiota-released calories are perfectly balanced by decreased food intake in fully colonized versus gnotobiotic OligoMM12 and GF mice fed a standard chow diet, i.e., microbiota-released calories can in fact be well integrated into appetite control. We also observed no significant difference in energy expenditure after normalization by lean mass between the different microbiota groups, suggesting that cumulative small differences in energy balance, or altered energy storage, must underlie fat accumulation in OligoMM12 mice. Consistent with altered energy storage, major differences were observed in the type of respiratory substrates used in metabolism over the circadian cycle: In GF mice, the respiratory exchange ratio (RER) was consistently lower than that of fully colonized mice at all times of day, indicative of more reliance on fat and less on glucose metabolism. Intriguingly, the RER of OligoMM12-colonized gnotobiotic mice phenocopied fully colonized mice during the dark (active/eating) phase but phenocopied GF mice during the light (fasting/resting) phase. Further, OligoMM12-colonized mice showed a GF-like drop in liver glycogen storage during the light phase and both liver and plasma metabolomes of OligoMM12 mice clustered closely with GF mice. This implies the existence of microbiota functions that are required to maintain normal host metabolism during the resting/fasting phase of circadian cycle and which are absent in the OligoMM12 consortium

HIV-1 drug resistance in people on dolutegravir-based antiretroviral therapy:a collaborative cohort analysis

BACKGROUND The widespread use of the integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI) dolutegravir in first-line and second-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) might facilitate emerging resistance. The DTG RESIST study combined data from HIV cohorts to examine patterns of drug resistance mutations (DRMs) and identify risk factors for dolutegravir resistance. METHODS We included cohorts with INSTI resistance data from two collaborations (ART Cohort Collaboration, International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS in Southern Africa), and the UK Collaborative HIV Cohort. Eight cohorts from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Switzerland, South Africa, and the UK contributed data on individuals who were viraemic on dolutegravir-based ART and underwent genotypic resistance testing. Individuals with unknown dolutegravir initiation date were excluded. Resistance levels were categorised using the Stanford algorithm. We identified risk factors for resistance using mixed-effects ordinal logistic regression models. FINDINGS We included 599 people with genotypic resistance testing on dolutegravir-based ART between May 22, 2013, and Dec 20, 2021. Most had HIV-1 subtype B (n=351, 59%), a third had been exposed to first-generation INSTIs (n=193, 32%), 70 (12%) were on dolutegravir dual therapy, and 18 (3%) were on dolutegravir monotherapy. INSTI DRMs were detected in 86 (14%) individuals; 20 (3%) had more than one mutation. Most (n=563, 94%) were susceptible to dolutegravir, seven (1%) had potential low, six (1%) low, 17 (3%) intermediate, and six (1%) high-level dolutegravir resistance. The risk of dolutegravir resistance was higher on dolutegravir monotherapy (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 34·1, 95% CI 9·93-117) and dolutegravir plus lamivudine dual therapy (aOR 9·21, 2·20-38·6) compared with combination ART, and in the presence of potential low or low (aOR 5·23, 1·32-20·7) or intermediate or high-level (aOR 13·4, 4·55-39·7) nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) resistance. INTERPRETATION Among people with viraemia on dolutegravir-based ART, INSTI DRMs and dolutegravir resistance were rare. NRTI resistance substantially increased the risk of dolutegravir resistance, which is of concern, notably in resource-limited settings. Monitoring is important to prevent resistance at the individual and population level and ensure the long-term sustainability of ART. FUNDING US National Institutes of Health, Swiss National Science Foundation

Machine learning based prediction of COVID-19 mortality suggests repositioning of anticancer drug for treating severe cases

Despite available vaccinations COVID-19 case numbers around the world are still growing, and effective medications against severe cases are lacking. In this work, we developed a machine learning model which predicts mortality for COVID-19 patients using data from the multi-center ‘Lean European Open Survey on SARS-CoV-2-infected patients’ (LEOSS) observational study (>100 active sites in Europe, primarily in Germany), resulting into an AUC of almost 80%. We showed that molecular mechanisms related to dementia, one of the relevant predictors in our model, intersect with those associated to COVID-19. Most notably, among these molecules was tyrosine kinase 2 (TYK2), a protein that has been patented as drug target in Alzheimer's Disease but also genetically associated with severe COVID-19 outcomes. We experimentally verified that anti-cancer drugs Sorafenib and Regorafenib showed a clear anti-cytopathic effect in Caco2 and VERO-E6 cells and can thus be regarded as potential treatments against COVID-19. Altogether, our work demonstrates that interpretation of machine learning based risk models can point towards drug targets and new treatment options, which are strongly needed for COVID-19

Hospitalized patients dying with SARS-CoV-2 infection—an analysis of patient characteristics and management in ICU and general ward of the LEOSS registry

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 is a severe disease with a high need for intensive care treatment and a high mortality rate in hospitalized patients. The objective of this study was to describe and compare the clinical characteristics and the management of patients dying with SARS-CoV-2 infection in the acute medical and intensive care setting. METHODS: Descriptive analysis of dying patients enrolled in the Lean European Open Survey on SARS-CoV-2 Infected Patients (LEOSS), a non-interventional cohort study, between March 18 and November 18, 2020. Symptoms, comorbidities and management of patients, including palliative care involvement, were compared between general ward and intensive care unit (ICU) by univariate analysis. RESULTS: 580/4310 (13%) SARS-CoV-2 infected patients died. Among 580 patients 67% were treated on ICU and 33% on a general ward. The spectrum of comorbidities and symptoms was broad with more comorbidities (≥ four comorbidities: 52% versus 25%) and a higher age distribution (>65 years: 98% versus 70%) in patients on the general ward. 69% of patients were in an at least complicated phase at diagnosis of the SARS-CoV-2 infection with a higher proportion of patients in a critical phase or dying the day of diagnosis treated on ICU (36% versus 11%). While most patients admitted to ICU came from home (71%), patients treated on the general ward came likewise from home and nursing home (44% respectively) and were more frequently on palliative care before admission (29% versus 7%). A palliative care team was involved in dying patients in 15%. Personal contacts were limited but more often documented in patients treated on ICU (68% versus 47%). CONCLUSION: Patients dying with SARS-CoV-2 infection suffer from high symptom burden and often deteriorate early with a demand for ICU treatment. Therefor a demand for palliative care expertise with early involvement seems to exist

Prognostic factors in 264 adults with invasive Scedosporium spp. and Lomentospora prolificans infection reported in the literature and FungiScope

Invasive Scedosporium spp. and Lomentospora prolificans infections are an emerging threat in immunocompromised and occasionally in healthy hosts. Scedosporium spp. is intrinsically resistant to most, L. prolificans to all the antifungal drugs currently approved, raising concerns about appropriate treatment decisions. High mortality rates of up to 90% underline the need for comprehensive diagnostic workup and even more for new, effective antifungal drugs to improve patient outcome. For a comprehensive analysis, we identified cases of severe Scedosporium spp. and L. prolificans infections from the literature diagnosed in 2000 or later and the FungiScopeVR registry. For 208 Scedosporium spp. infections solid organ transplantation (n¼58, 27.9%) and for 56 L. prolificans infection underlying malignancy (n¼28, 50.0%) were the most prevalent risk factors. L. prolificans infections frequently presented as fungemia (n¼26, 46.4% versus n¼12, 5.8% for Scedosporium spp.). Malignancy, fungemia, CNS and lung involvement predicted worse outcome for scedosporiosis and lomentosporiosis. Patients treated with voriconazole had a better overall outcome in both groups compared to treatment with amphotericin B formulations. This review discusses the epidemiology, prognostic factors, pathogen susceptibility to approved and investigational antifungals, and treatment strategies of severe infections caused by Scedosporium spp. and L. prolificansWe thank Sabine Wrackmeyer for her private donation to support the projec

Molecular Epidemiology of the HIV Epidemic in Three German Metropolitan Regions - Cologne/Bonn, Munich and Hannover, 1999-2016

Using HIV sequence data to characterize clusters of HIV transmission may provide insight into the epidemic. Phylogenetic and network analyses were performed to infer putative relationships between HIV-1 partial pol sequences from 2,774 individuals receiving care in three German regions between 1999-2016. The regions have in common that they host some of the largest annual festivals in Europe (Carnival and Oktoberfest). Putative links with sequences (n = 150,396) from the Los Alamos HIV Sequence database were evaluated. A total of 595/2,774 (21.4%) sequences linked with at least one other sequence, forming 184 transmission clusters. Clustering individuals were significantly more likely to be younger, male, and report sex with men as their main risk factor (p < 0.001 each). Most clusters (77.2%) consisted exclusively of men;41 (28.9%) of these included men reporting sex with women. Thirty-two clusters (17.4%) contained sequences from more than one region;clustering men were significantly more likely to be in a position bridging regional HIV epidemics than clustering women (p = 0.027). We found 236 clusters linking 547 sequences from our sample with sequences from the Los Alamos database (n = 1407;31% from other German centres). These results highlight the pitfalls of focusing HIV prevention efforts on specific risk groups or specific locales

COVID-19 severity and thrombo-inflammatory response linked to ethnicity

Although there is strong evidence that SARS-CoV-2 infection is associated with adverse outcomes in certain ethnic groups, the association of disease severity and risk factors such as comorbidities and biomarkers with racial disparities remains undefined. This retrospective study between March 2020 and February 2021 explores COVID-19 risk factors as predictors for patients&rsquo; disease progression through country comparison. Disease severity predictors in Germany and Japan were cardiovascular-associated comorbidities, dementia, and age. We adjusted age, sex, body mass index, and history of cardiovascular disease comorbidity in the country cohorts using a propensity score matching (PSM) technique to reduce the influence of differences in sample size and the surprisingly young, lean Japanese cohort. Analysis of the 170 PSM pairs confirmed that 65.29% of German and 85.29% of Japanese patients were in the uncomplicated phase. More German than Japanese patients were admitted in the complicated and critical phase. Ethnic differences were identified in patients without cardiovascular comorbidities. Japanese patients in the uncomplicated phase presented a suppressed inflammatory response and coagulopathy with hypocoagulation. In contrast, German patients exhibited a hyperactive inflammatory response and coagulopathy with hypercoagulation. These differences were less pronounced in patients in the complicated phase or with cardiovascular diseases. Coagulation/fibrinolysis-associated biomarkers rather than inflammatory-related biomarkers predicted disease severity in patients with cardiovascular comorbidities: platelet counts were associated with severe illness in German patients. In contrast, high D-dimer and fibrinogen levels predicted disease severity in Japanese patients. Our comparative study indicates that ethnicity influences COVID-19-associated biomarker expression linked to the inflammatory and coagulation (thrombo-inflammatory) response. Future studies will be necessary to determine whether these differences contributed to the less severe disease progression observed in Japanese COVID-19 patients compared with those in Germany