Integration of a human risk module into a risk management software

In the scientific literature and in practice, many questionnaires based on a myriad of measures have been designed and tested to measure and evaluate perceived work stress or employee involvement. The objective of our research is to identify the most significant elements of human risks and to combine them into a single score at the level of teams and departments. Indeed, for companies, what really matters are the stress or dissatisfaction factors that lead to harmful behavior that prevent managers and their teams from achieving their objectives. Based on this research, we are developing a module that will be incorporated into the Oxial software and will also be available as a stand-alone module. This module will collect and analyze the data to calculate a single score measuring the level of human risk. This aspect is very innovative, because no risk management software currently includes a module dedicated to human risks

How certain are we about the model-based estimations of global irrigation water withdrawal?

Irrigation agriculture is the most important user of the global freshwater resources worldwide, which makes it one of the key actors conditioning sustainable development and water security. The anticipated future climate change, population growth, and rapidly rising global demand for food will likely lead to agricultural expansion by allowing the development of irrigated areas. This together with the fact that irrigated crops are approximately four times more profitable than rainfed crops will place much additional pressure on water resources in the next years. Therefore, it is of vital importance to devise solutions that minimize the negative impacts of agricultural expansion, particularly on biodiversity and water use, so as to help us achieve environmental and economic sustainability. To realize such an ambition, quantifying irrigation water withdrawal at different spatio-temporal scales is essential. Global Hydrological Models (GHM) are often used to produce irrigation water withdrawal estimates. Yet GHMs questionably rely on several uncertain estimates of irrigated areas, crop evapotranspiration processes, precipitation and irrigation efficiency, which are the four main inputs in the structure of GHMs. Here we show that, once basic uncertainties regarding these estimates are properly integrated into the calculations, the point-based irrigation water withdrawal estimates actually correspond to uncertainty intervals that span several orders of magnitude already at the grid cell level. Our approach is based on the concept of sensitivity auditing, a practice of process-oriented skepticism towards mathematical models. The numerical results suggest that current estimates of global irrigation water withdrawals are spuriously accurate due to their neglect of several ambiguities/uncertainties, and thus need to be re-assessed. Our analysis highlights that models of global irrigation water demands need to better integrate uncertainties, both technical and epistemological, so as to avoid misguiding the development of strategies intended to help ensure water and food security

Design, synthesis, ADME and biological evaluation of benzylpiperidine and benzylpiperazine derivatives as novel reversible monoacylglycerol lipase (MAGL) inhibitors.

The degradation of the endocannabinoid 2-arachidonoylglycerol is mediated by the enzyme monoacylglycerol lipase (MAGL), thus generating arachidonic acid, the precursor of prostaglandins and other pro-inflammatory mediators. MAGL also contributes to the hydrolysis of monoacylglycerols into glycerol and fatty acids in peripheral body districts, which may act as pro-tumorigenic signals. For this reason, MAGL inhibitors have been considered as interesting therapeutic agents for their anti-nociceptive, anti-inflammatory, antioxidant and anti-cancer properties. So far, only a limited series of reversible MAGL inhibitors, which are devoid of side effects shown by irreversible inhibitors in animal models, have been reported. Here we optimized a class of benzylpiperidine and benzylpiperazine-based compounds for a reversible MAGL inhibition. The best MAGL inhibitors of this class, compounds 28 and 29, showed a very good inhibition potency, both on the isolated enzyme and in U937 cells, as confirmed by molecular modeling studies that predicted their binding mode into the MAGL active site. Both compounds are characterized by a high selectivity for MAGL versus other serine hydrolases including enzymes of the endocannabinoid system, as confirmed by ABPP experiments in mouse brain membranes. Moreover, very good properties concerning ADME parameters and low in vivo toxicity have been observed for both compounds

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Methods: The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk–outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk–outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk–outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk–outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. Findings: Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7–9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4–9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7–6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8–6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8–6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0–4 years and 5–14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9–27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5–28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3–56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9–21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3–12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6–1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1–1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4–78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2–72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). Interpretation: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions

Exploring human-related risks in the higher education sector ::the case of marketing educators in Switzerland and France

As a service activity, the higher education sector may suffer from human-related risks such as absenteeism, burnout, and lack of engagement or faculty turnover. Previous researches have shown that managerial reforms led to an increase of the work-related demands and a decrease of resources.An exploratory research was conducted in the French-speaking part of Switzerland and in France in order to assess the levels of motivation, stress and workloads of marketing educators and to discover possible explanations of the observed human-related risks. Our findings show that teachers are still motivated by teaching and research activities. Working conditions are deteriorating due to high pressure on the outcomes and burdensome administrative constraints

Early detection of human-related risks in an increasingly digitized work environment

Purpose – Human-related risks are practices in a given organization that lead to harmful behaviors that prevent managers and their teams from achieving goals. The purpose of this article is to enable the organization to provide a preventive and simple response to risks in the event that deterioration in employee well-being is detected. Design/methodology/approach – In the literature, many questionnaires based on a variety of metrics have been developed and tested to measure and assess the quality of work life (e.g. stress, commitment, satisfaction, etc.). The approach of this study was to identify the most meaningful items and combine them into a unique score integrated into an effective decision-making module. Findings – A long process of trial and error was necessary to collect confidential information from employees, both anonymously and longitudinally, to measure well-being in the workplace objectively and globally. The unique score generated provides an indication of potential human risk. Research limitations/implications – This research and its practical implementation have demonstrated the importance of personal-data protection and the need to work harder to maintain employees’ digital trust while using a digitized tool. Practical implications – Development of a new app that was used for the first time to regularly assess illbeing in several companies. Social implications – The social implication of this research is to contribute to health policies related to wellbeing in the workplace. Originality/value – To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first time that a software module measuring the human risk of an entire company has been embedded in Enterprise Risk Management (ERM)

Détection précoce des risques humains ::une étude de cas Suisse

Les risques liés à l’humain dans une organisation conduisent à des comportements nuisibles qui empêchent les managers et leurs équipes d'atteindre leurs objectifs. Cet article présente une étude de cas décrivant l’initiative d’une organisation qui a mis en oeuvre une réponse préventive et simple aux risques par une détection précoce d’une éventuelle détérioration du bien-être des employés. Dans la littérature et dans la pratique, de nombreux questionnaires composés d’une myriade de paramètres ont été développés et testés pour mesurer et évaluer différents aspects liés au bien-être des employés au travail. Dans le cadre de nos recherches et par le biais de méthodes statistiques, nous avions identifié les facteurs les plus significatifs et nous les avions combinés en un score unique intégré dans un module de GRC. Pour que ce score unique de risque lié à l’humain soit pertinent, il était crucial de pouvoir recueillir des informations confidentielles auprès des employés, de manière anonyme et longitudinale afin d’assurer un monitoring objectif et global. Le test grandeur nature a démontré l'importance de la protection des données personnelles, la nécessité de garantir la confiance des employés dans un contexte numérique et l’utilité d’un processus de gestion du risque humain. A la connaissance des auteurs, aucun logiciel de mesure du risque humain intégré à une démarche de gestion des risques de l'entreprise (ERM) n’a été réalisé auparavant

Les acteurs locaux de la filière agro-alimentaire et les consommateurs n’ont pas vraiment tiré de leçons de la crise liée à la Covid-19

Malgré une forte augmentation des achats de produits locaux au plus fort de la crise liée à la Covid-19, tout est revenu à la normale au déconfinement. Une étude effectuée sur près de 2000 consommateurs* observait pourtant que les consommateurs avaient modifié leurs comportements et qu’ils souhaitaient faire perdurer ces changements, avec une différence significative en fonction des revenus et de la sensibilité au prix. Une étude qualitative* auprès des acteurs locaux de l’agro-alimentaire a mis en évidence le rôle des émotions et du temps pour expliquer l’engouement envers les produits locaux pendant le confinement. En fin de compte, si les consommateurs ont le choix, ils privilégient le prix et la disponibilité des produits au grand dam des producteurs et distributeurs locaux. Alors peut-on concilier les points de vue producteurs et consommateurs en une seule communauté d'intérêts durables ? Le prix, le temps et la communication apparaissent comme les éléments de réponse à ne pas négliger