Factors affecting long-survival of patients with esophageal cancer using non-mixture cure fraction model

Objective: Esophageal cancer (EC) is one of the gastrointestinal malignancies with a very high morbidity and mortality rate due to poor prognosis. This study aims to assess the effects of risk factors on survival and cure fraction of patients with EC in a population of Iranian patients using a non-mixture cure fraction model. Methods: This retrospective cohort study was conducted on 127 patients with EC who were diagnosed during 2009-2010 and were followed up for 5 years in East-Azarbaijan, Iran. Stepwise selection and non-mixture cure fraction model were used to find the risk factors of EC survival patients. Results: The mean (±standard deviation) diagnosis age of the EC was 66.92(±11.95). One, three and five-year survival probabilities were 0.44 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.36-0.54), 0.2 (95% CI: 0.14-0.28) and 0.13 (95% CI: 0.08-0.2) respectively. Female sex (Estimate=-0.99; 95% confidence interval (CI): -1.41,-0.58; p-value<0.001), low level socioeconomic status (Estimate=0.39; 95%CI: 0.12,0.66; p-value=0.043), the group who did not do esophagectomy surgery (Estimate=0.58; 95%CI: 0.17,0.99; p-value=0.005) and unmarried group (Estimate=0.58; 95%CI: 0.11-1.05; p-value=0.015) were found as the significant predictor of survival and cure fraction of the EC patients. Population cure rate was 0.11 (95%CI: 0.07-0.19) and Cure fraction was estimated 5.11 percent. Conclusion: This study found gender, socioeconomic status, Esophagectomy surgery and marital status as the potential risk factors for survival and cure fraction of Iranian EC patients. Moreover, non- mixture cure fraction provides more accurate and more reliable insight into long-term advantages of EC therapy compared to standard classic survival analysis alternatives

Epidemiology of small intestine cancer in Iran

Background Little is known about the epidemiology of small intestine (SI) cancer in Iran, a rare cancer entity worldwide. Aims The aim of the present study was to investigate the incidence patterns and survival rates of SI cancer in Iran through a population-based study. Methods and Results Data on all reported cases of SI cancer were extracted from the Iran National Cancer Registry based on ICD-O-3 codes. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), age-specific incidence rates, standardized rate ratios (SRR), time trends, and absolute survival rates were calculated. During 2005-2015, a total of 4928 SI cancers (ASIR: 0.87/100 000) were diagnosed, including 2835 carcinomas (ASIR: 0.51), 214 neuroendocrine malignancies (ASIR: 0.04), 228 sarcomas (ASIR: 0.04), and 704 lymphomas (ASIR: 0.11). Carcinomas and lymphomas occurred more frequently in men than in women (SRR: 1.37/100 000 and 1.85/100 000, respectively), while the other two histological subtypes were almost equally distributed. 78% of carcinomas and 53% of neuroendocrine tumors were located in the duodenum. Sarcomas occurred most frequently in the jejunum (41%), while lymphomas were most frequently in the ileum (44%). From 2005 to 2015, the number of reported cases of SI cancer increased by 9.6% per year. The median age of diagnosis for women and men was 61. The absolute 5-year survival rate was 35.3%, varying by sex, age, and subtype. Carcinomas had the lowest survival rate (24.1%) while neuroendocrine carcinomas had the highest survival rate (69.7%). Conclusion Epidemiological patterns of SI cancer in Iran differed slightly from patterns in the United States and the United Kingdom. In contrast to other countries, the neuroendocrine form is presented as the rarest subtype in Iran. The overall incidence of SI cancer was lower in Iran than in high-income countries. In contrast, the average prognosis of SI cancer was worse in Iran, indicating the need to improve early detection, diagnosis, and treatment

Determining Risk Factors for Gastric and Esophageal Cancers between 2009-2015 in East-Azarbayjan, Iran Using Parametric Survival Models

BACKGROUND: Esophageal cancer (EC) and Gastric cancer (GC) have been identified as two of the most common cancers in the northeastern regions of Iran. The increasing rates of these types of cancers requires attention. This study aims to assess the potential risk factors for these two cancers and then determine shared risk factors between them in a population of Iranian patients using parametric survival models. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study was conducted using 127 patients with EC and 184 patients with GC in East Azarbaijan, Iran who were diagnosed and registered during the years 2009-2010 in Iran’s National Cancer Control Registration Program and were followed for five years. Parametric survival models were used to find the risk factors of the patients. Akaike Information Criteria was used to identify the best parametric model in this study. Interaction analysis was used to determine shared risk factors between EC and GC. RESULTS: The mean (±standard deviation) age of diagnoses for EC and GC were 66.92(±11.95) and 66.5(±11.5) respectively. The survival time ranges of GC patients was (0.07-70.33) and the survival time ranges were from 0.10 to 69.03 months for EC patients. Multivariable Log- logistic model showed that being married (OR=2.25, 95% CI: 1.33 - 3.81) for EC patients and Esophagectomy surgery for EC (OR: 1.62, 95% CI: 1.04 – 2.55) and GC (OR: 1.60, 95% CI: 1.02 – 2.53) had significant effects on survival. Age at the time of diagnosis, job status, and Esophagectomy surgery were statistically comparable regarding their magnitude of effect on survival of two cancers (all Ps>0.05). CONCLUSION: Esophagectomy surgery and being married were important risk factors in EC and GC. The log-logistic model was the most appropriate statistical approach to identify significant risk factors on survival of both cancers. Creative Commons Attribution License KEYWORDS: Esophageal neoplasm; stomach neoplasm; survival analysi

Cultural Aspects of Social Anxiety Disorder: A Qualitative Analysis of Anxiety Experiences and Interpretation

Objective: Anxiety is a complex phenomenon on which culture has a prominent influence. The present study aimed to investigate the cultural aspects of social anxiety disorder (SAD) in an Iranian population. Method: A qualitative content analysis research was done to answer the study question. A total of 16 individuals with social anxiety disorder (six men and 10 women) were selected using purposeful sampling method (M = 24.43, SD = 4.56). The study was conducted in Tehran, Urmia, and Sanandaj- Iran. Participants were from different ethnic backgrounds (LOR, FARS, TURK, and KURD). Data were analyzed by thematic analysis using an inductive method. Results: Analysis of participants’ records yielded five distinct categories with some subcategories, which are as follow: (1) anxiety experiences; (2) core beliefs; (3) reasons of being anxious; (4) effects of SAD on life aspects; and (5) coping strategies. Conclusion: It seems that symptoms of social anxiety and its underlying beliefs, causes and effects and coping strategies are almost experienced and interpreted in a way that could be the same as DSM-5 clinical presentation of social anxiety, with the exception that somatic symptoms are experienced by almost all participants

Evaluation of Neutrophil Gelatinase-Associated Lipocalin and Cystatin C in Early Diagnosis of Chronic Kidney Disease in the Absence of the Gold Standard

Background: Glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is considered as a gold standard of kidney function. However, using GFR as the gold standard is not common in clinical practice, because its direct measurement is usually expensive, cumbersome, and invasive. In the present study, we assessed the predictive power of two other biomarkers, Cystatin-C (Cys-C) and Neutrophil Gelatinase-Associated Lipocalin (NGAL) for early detection of chronic kidney diseases (CKD) in the absence of a gold standard. Materials and Methods: In this study, 72 patients who referred to the Shohadaye Tajrish Hospital of Tehran, Iran, for measuring their kidney function were studied. The ELISA method was utilized for measuring plasma NGAL (PNGAL) and serum Cys-C (SCys-C). The Bayesian latent class modeling approach was applied to asses the predictive power of these biomarkers. Results: While both the biomarkers had rather high sensitivities (PNGAL=91%, SCys-C=89%), the specificity of SCys-C biomarker was very lower than the one of PNGAL (SCys-C=56%, PNGAL=94%). The estimated area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for SCys-C as the single biomarker for the diagnosis of CKD was about 0.76, while a similar estimate for PNGAL was 0.93. The added value of PNGAL to SCys-C for the diagnosis of CKD in terms of the ROC curve was about 0.19, while the added value of SCys-C to PNGAL was less than 0.02. Conclusion: In general, our findings suggest that PNGAL can be utilized as a single reliable biomarker for early detection of CKD. In addition, results showed that when a perfect gold standard is not available, Bayesian approaches to latent class models could lead to more precise sensitivity and specificity estimates of imperfect tests. Keywords:Chronic Kidney Diseases; Neutrophil Gelatinase-Associated Lipocalin; Cystatin C; Bayesian Approach; Latent Class Model; Sensitivity; Specificit

Time-related survival prediction in molecular subtypes of breast cancer using time-to-event deep-learning-based models

BackgroundBreast cancer (BC) survival prediction can be a helpful tool for identifying important factors selecting the effective treatment reducing mortality rates. This study aims to predict the time-related survival probability of BC patients in different molecular subtypes over 30 years of follow-up.Materials and methodsThis study retrospectively analyzed 3580 patients diagnosed with invasive breast cancer (BC) from 1991 to 2021 in the Cancer Research Center of Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Science. The dataset contained 18 predictor variables and two dependent variables, which referred to the survival status of patients and the time patients survived from diagnosis. Feature importance was performed using the random forest algorithm to identify significant prognostic factors. Time-to-event deep-learning-based models, including Nnet-survival, DeepHit, DeepSurve, NMLTR and Cox-time, were developed using a grid search approach with all variables initially and then with only the most important variables selected from feature importance. The performance metrics used to determine the best-performing model were C-index and IBS. Additionally, the dataset was clustered based on molecular receptor status (i.e., luminal A, luminal B, HER2-enriched, and triple-negative), and the best-performing prediction model was used to estimate survival probability for each molecular subtype.ResultsThe random forest method identified tumor state, age at diagnosis, and lymph node status as the best subset of variables for predicting breast cancer (BC) survival probabilities. All models yielded very close performance, with Nnet-survival (C-index=0.77, IBS=0.13) slightly higher using all 18 variables or the three most important variables. The results showed that the Luminal A had the highest predicted BC survival probabilities, while triple-negative and HER2-enriched had the lowest predicted survival probabilities over time. Additionally, the luminal B subtype followed a similar trend as luminal A for the first five years, after which the predicted survival probability decreased steadily in 10- and 15-year intervals.ConclusionThis study provides valuable insight into the survival probability of patients based on their molecular receptor status, particularly for HER2-positive patients. This information can be used by healthcare providers to make informed decisions regarding the appropriateness of medical interventions for high-risk patients. Future clinical trials should further explore the response of different molecular subtypes to treatment in order to optimize the efficacy of breast cancer treatments

Transfusion-transmitted malaria : a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background : Malaria transmission through blood transfusion is an accidental but preventable cause of malaria infection and is increasingly becoming a matter of concern for blood transfusion services. This systematic review was conducted to provide a summary of evidence about the prevalence of Plasmodium infection in asymptomatic blood donors and the effectiveness of screening methods used based on the available literature. Methods : PRISMA guidelines were followed. Scopus, PubMed, Science Direct, and EMBASE were searched from 1982 to October 10, 2017. All peer-reviewed original research articles describing the prevalence of malaria parasitemia in blood donors with different diagnostic methods were included. The random-effects model was applied to assess the effects of heterogeneity among the selected studies. Incoherence and heterogeneity between studies were quantified by I2 index and Cochran's Q test. Publication and population bias was assessed with funnel plots and Egger's regression asymmetry test. All statistical analyses were performed using Stata (version 2.7.2). Results : Seventy-one studies from 21 countries, 5 continents, were included in the present systematic review. The median prevalence of malaria parasitemia among 984 975 asymptomatic healthy blood donors was 10.54%, 5.36%, and 0.38% by microscopy, molecular methods (polymerase chain reaction), and rapid diagnostic tests, respectively. The most commonly detected Plasmodium species was P. falciparum. Conclusions : This systematic review demonstrates that compared with other transfusion-linked infections, that is, HIV, HCV, and HBV, transfusion-transmitted malaria is one of the most significant transfusion-associated infections especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. Future work must aim to understand the clinical significance of transfusion-transmitted malaria in malaria-endemic settings.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Assessing sex differential in COVID-19 mortality rate by age and polymerase chain reaction test results: an Iranian multi-center study

Background The aim of this study is to evaluate the sex differential effect in the COVID-19 mortality by different age groups and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test results. Research design In a multicenter cross-sectional study from 55 hospitals in Tehran, Iran, patients were categorized as positive, negative, and suspected cases. Results A total of 25,481 cases (14,791 males) were included in the study with a mortality rate of 12.0%. The mortality rates in positive, negative, and suspected cases were 20.55%, 9.97%, and 7.31%, respectively. Using a Cox regression model, sex had a significant effect on the hazard of death due to COVID-19 in adult and senior male patients having positive and suspected PCR test results. However, sex was not found as significant factor for mortality in patients with a negative PCR test in different age groups. Conclusions Regardless of other risk factors, we found that the effect of sex on COVID-19 mortality varied significantly in different age groups. Therefore, appropriate strategies should be designed to protect adult and senior males from this deadly infectious disease. Furthermore, owing to the considerable death rate of COVID-19 patients with negative test results, new policies should be launched to increase the accuracy of diagnosis tests