Costs associated with policies regarding alcohol use during pregnancy: Results from 1972-2015 Vital Statistics.

Background and objectiveAs of 2016, 43 US states have policies regarding alcohol use during pregnancy. A recent study found that out of eight state-level alcohol/pregnancy policies, six are significantly associated with poorer birth outcomes, and two are not associated with any outcomes. Here we estimate the excess numbers of low birthweight (LBW) and preterm births (PTB) related to these policies and their associated additional costs in the first year of life.MethodsCost study using birth certificate data for 155,446,714 singleton live births in the United States between 1972-2015. Exposures were state- and month/year-specific indicators of having each of eight alcohol/pregnancy policies in place. Outcomes were excess numbers of LBW and PTB and associated costs in the first year of life. Fixed effects regressions with state-specific time trends were used for statistical analyses in 2018.ResultsIn 2015, policies mandating warning signs were associated with an excess of 7,375 LBW; policies defining alcohol use during pregnancy as child abuse/neglect were associated with an excess of 12,372 PTB; these excess adverse outcomes are associated with additional costs of $151,928,002 and$582,698,853 in the first year of life, respectively.ConclusionsMultiple state-level alcohol pregnancy policies lead to increased prevalence of LBW and PTB, which cost hundreds of millions of dollars annually. Policymakers should consider adverse public health impacts of alcohol/pregnancy policies before expanding extant policies to new substances or adopting existing policies in new states

A state space forecasting model with fiscal and monetary control

In this paper we model the U.S. economy parsimoniously in an a theoretic state space representation. We use monthly data for thirteen macroeconomic variables. We treat the federal deficit as a proxy for fiscal policy and the fed funds rate as a proxy for monetary policy and use each of them as control (exogenous) variables, and designate the rest as state variables. The output (measured) variable is the growth rate of quarterly real GDP which we interpolate to obtain a monthly equivalent. We specify a linear relation between state variables and implicitly allow for time variation of the relationship by using a recursive least squares (RLS) with forgetting factor algorithm to estimate the coefficients. The model coefficients are also estimated using ordinary least squares (OLS) and the resulting forecasts (in-sample and out-of-sample) are compared. The RLS algorithm performs better in the out-of-sample forecasts, particularly for those state variables which exhibit the greatest cyclical variations. Variables which had greater stability were forecasted more precisely with OLS estimated parameters.Forecasting ; Econometric models

Retorika Voditelja Intern Literature Sangam

Sangam literature reveals the best thoughts about ancient Tamils. The effecting usage of words according to the situation is called rhetoric. The rhetoric generally refers to those who possess commanding personality skills. Aga ilakkiya leader has profound knowledge in elaborating her thoughts to others. The literature has also stated that the Aga ilakkiya leader’s rhetoric skills have guided her friends and man in a proper way. In the literature, the Aga ilakkiya leader’s skills in handling various traits such as accepting and rejecting ambassadors are one of the main proofs. The leader’s rhetorical skill can sometimes melt down the heart of her man. In Sangam Aga literature, the chief position was meant for leaders only. Hence the chief’s wellness is significantly taken care of by her friend. Normally friend is expected to be rich in knowledge and a leader is affiliated with feelings hence friends’ quality has been spoken high. So, the friend of Aga Ilakkiya leader’s intelligence is spoken from time to time. Hence this article describes how the rhetorical skills of a leader who could actually understand the different situations and managed her friend