Understanding the transmission dynamics of Leishmania donovani to provide robust evidence for interventions to eliminate visceral leishmaniasis in Bihar, India.

Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) is a neglected vector-borne disease. In India, it is transmitted to humans by Leishmania donovani-infected Phlebotomus argentipes sand flies. In 2005, VL was targeted for elimination by the governments of India, Nepal and Bangladesh by 2015. The elimination strategy consists of rapid case detection, treatment of VL cases and vector control using indoor residual spraying (IRS). However, to achieve sustained elimination of VL, an appropriate post elimination surveillance programme should be designed, and crucial knowledge gaps in vector bionomics, human infection and transmission need to be addressed. This review examines the outstanding knowledge gaps, specifically in the context of Bihar State, India.The knowledge gaps in vector bionomics that will be of immediate benefit to current control operations include better estimates of human biting rates and natural infection rates of P. argentipes, with L. donovani, and how these vary spatially, temporally and in response to IRS. The relative importance of indoor and outdoor transmission, and how P. argentipes disperse, are also unknown. With respect to human transmission it is important to use a range of diagnostic tools to distinguish individuals in endemic communities into those who: 1) are to going to progress to clinical VL, 2) are immune/refractory to infection and 3) have had past exposure to sand flies.It is crucial to keep in mind that close to elimination, and post-elimination, VL cases will become infrequent, so it is vital to define what the surveillance programme should target and how it should be designed to prevent resurgence. Therefore, a better understanding of the transmission dynamics of VL, in particular of how rates of infection in humans and sand flies vary as functions of each other, is required to guide VL elimination efforts and ensure sustained elimination in the Indian subcontinent. By collecting contemporary entomological and human data in the same geographical locations, more precise epidemiological models can be produced. The suite of data collected can also be used to inform the national programme if supplementary vector control tools, in addition to IRS, are required to address the issues of people sleeping outside

Determination of freedom-from-rabies for small Indian mongoose populations in the United States Virgin Islands, 2019–2020

Mongooses, a nonnative species, are a known reservoir of rabies virus in the Caribbean region. A cross-sectional study of mongooses at 41 field sites on the US Virgin Islands of St. Croix, St. John, and St. Thomas captured 312 mongooses (32% capture rate). We determined the absence of rabies virus by antigen testing and rabies virus exposure by antibody testing in mongoose populations on all three islands. USVI is the first Caribbean state to determine freedom-from-rabies for its mongoose populations with a scientifically-led robust cross-sectional study. Ongoing surveillance activities will determine if other domestic and wildlife populations in USVI are rabies-free

Microwave Radiometry at Frequencies From 500 to 1400 MHz: An Emerging Technology for Earth Observations

icrowave radiometry has provided valuable spaceborne observations of Earth’s geophysical properties for decades. The recent SMOS, Aquarius, and SMAP satellites have demonstrated the value of measurements at 1400 MHz for observ- ing surface soil moisture, sea surface salinity, sea ice thickness, soil freeze/thaw state, and other geophysical variables. However, the information obtained is limited by penetration through the subsur- face at 1400 MHz and by a reduced sensitivity to surface salinity in cold or wind-roughened waters. Recent airborne experiments have shown the potential of brightness temperature measurements from 500–1400 MHz to address these limitations by enabling sensing of soil moisture and sea ice thickness to greater depths, sensing of temperature deep within ice sheets, improved sensing of sea salinity in cold waters, and enhanced sensitivity to soil moisture under veg- etation canopies. However, the absence of significant spectrum re- served for passive microwave measurements in the 500–1400 MHz band requires both an opportunistic sensing strategy and systems for reducing the impact of radio-frequency interference. Here, we summarize the potential advantages and applications of 500–1400 MHz microwave radiometry for Earth observation and review recent experiments and demonstrations of these concepts. We also describe the remaining questions and challenges to be addressed in advancing to future spaceborne operation of this technology along with recommendations for future research activities

Mongooses (\u3ci\u3eUrva auropunctata\u3c/i\u3e) as reservoir hosts of leptospira species in the United States Virgin Islands, 2019–2020

During 2019–2020, the Virgin Islands Department of Health investigated potential animal reservoirs of Leptospira spp., the bacteria that cause leptospirosis. In this cross-sectional study, we investigated Leptospira spp. exposure and carriage in the small Indian mongoose (Urva auropunctata, syn: Herpestes auropunctatus), an invasive animal species. This study was conducted across the three main islands of the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI), which are St. Croix, St. Thomas, and St. John. We used the microscopic agglutination test (MAT), fluorescent antibody test (FAT), real-time polymerase chain reaction (lipl32 rt-PCR), and bacterial culture to evaluate serum and kidney specimens and compared the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of these laboratory meth-ods. Mongooses (n = 274) were live-trapped at 31 field sites in ten regions across USVI and humanely euthanized for Leptospira spp. testing. Bacterial isolates were sequenced and evaluated for species and phylogenetic analysis using the ppk gene. Anti-Leptospira spp. antibodies were detected in 34% (87/256) of mongooses. Reactions were observed with the following serogroups: Sejroe, Icterohaemorrhagiae, Pyrogenes, Mini, Cynopteri, Australis, Hebdomadis, Autumnalis, Mankarso, Pomona, and Ballum. Of the kidney specimens exam-ined, 5.8% (16/270) were FAT-positive, 10% (27/274) were culture-positive, and 12.4% (34/ 274) were positive by rt-PCR. Of the Leptospira spp. isolated from mongooses, 25 were L. borgpetersenii, one was L. interrogans, and one was L. kirschneri. Positive predictive values of FAT and rt-PCR testing for predicting successful isolation of Leptospira by culture were 88% and 65%, respectively. The isolation and identification of Leptospira spp. in mongooses highlights the potential role of mongooses as a wildlife reservoir of leptospirosis; mongooses could be a source of Leptospira spp. infections for other wildlife, domestic animals, and humans

Quantitative analyses and modelling to support achievement of the 2020 goals for nine neglected tropical diseases

Quantitative analysis and mathematical models are useful tools in informing strategies to control or eliminate disease. Currently, there is an urgent need to develop these tools to inform policy to achieve the 2020 goals for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). In this paper we give an overview of a collection of novel model-based analyses which aim to address key questions on the dynamics of transmission and control of nine NTDs: Chagas disease, visceral leishmaniasis, human African trypanosomiasis, leprosy, soil-transmitted helminths, schistosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis and trachoma. Several common themes resonate throughout these analyses, including: the importance of epidemiological setting on the success of interventions; targeting groups who are at highest risk of infection or re-infection; and reaching populations who are not accessing interventions and may act as a reservoir for infection,. The results also highlight the challenge of maintaining elimination ‘as a public health problem’ when true elimination is not reached. The models elucidate the factors that may be contributing most to persistence of disease and discuss the requirements for eventually achieving true elimination, if that is possible. Overall this collection presents new analyses to inform current control initiatives. These papers form a base from which further development of the models and more rigorous validation against a variety of datasets can help to give more detailed advice. At the moment, the models’ predictions are being considered as the world prepares for a final push towards control or elimination of neglected tropical diseases by 2020

Quantitative analyses and modelling to support achievement of the 2020 goals for nine neglected tropical diseases

Quantitative analysis and mathematical models are useful tools in informing strategies to control or eliminate disease. Currently, there is an urgent need to develop these tools to inform policy to achieve the 2020 goals for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). In this paper we give an overview of a collection of novel model-based analyses which aim to address key questions on the dynamics of transmission and control of nine NTDs: Chagas disease, visceral leishmaniasis, human African trypanosomiasis, leprosy, soil-transmitted helminths, schistosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis and trachoma. Several common themes resonate throughout these analyses, including: the importance of epidemiological setting on the success of interventions; targeting groups who are at highest risk of infection or re-infection; and reaching populations who are not accessing interventions and may act as a reservoir for infection,. The results also highlight the challenge of maintaining elimination 'as a public health problem' when true elimination is not reached. The models elucidate the factors that may be contributing most to persistence of disease and discuss the requirements for eventually achieving true elimination, if that is possible. Overall this collection presents new analyses to inform current control initiatives. These papers form a base from which further development of the models and more rigorous validation against a variety of datasets can help to give more detailed advice. At the moment, the models' predictions are being considered as the world prepares for a final push towards control or elimination of neglected tropical diseases by 2020

A new Regional Climate Model for POLAR‐CORDEX: Evaluation of a 30‐year Hindcast with COSMO‐CLM² over Antarctica

©2019. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Continent-wide climate information over the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) is important to obtain accurate information of present climate and reduce uncertainties of the ice sheet mass balance response and resulting global sea level rise to future climate change. In this study, the COSMO-CLM 2 Regional Climate Model is applied over the AIS and adapted for the specific meteorological and climatological conditions of the region. A 30-year hindcast was performed and evaluated against observational records consisting of long-term ground-based meteorological observations, automatic weather stations, radiosoundings, satellite records, stake measurements and ice cores. Reasonable agreement regarding the surface and upper-air climate is achieved by the COSMO-CLM 2 model, comparable to the performance of other state-of-the-art climate models over the AIS. Meteorological variability of the surface climate is adequately simulated, and biases in the radiation and surface mass balance are small. The presented model therefore contributes as a new member to the COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment project over the AIS (POLAR-CORDEX) and the CORDEX-CORE initiative.status: publishe

A long-term hindcast simulation with COSMO-CLM² over Antarctica

status: publishe

Retrospective Cohort Study to Assess the Risk of Rabies in Biting Dogs, 2013–2015, Republic of Haiti

Background: In canine rabies endemic countries the World Health Organization recommends post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) be initiated immediately after exposure to an animal suspected to have rabies. Limited capacity in low and middle income countries to assess biting animals for rabies may result in the over prescription of rabies biologics. Few guidelines exist to determine the risk of whether a dog that has bitten someone is rabid. Given PEP cost and access limitations in many countries, accurate and timely assessment of dogs that have bitten people may reduce unwarranted PEP use and improve healthcare seeking behaviors. Methods: Haiti’s animal rabies surveillance program utilizes veterinary professionals to conduct rabies assessments on reported biting dogs and records characteristics of the dog, health outcomes, and laboratory results in a national database. Characteristics of rabid dogs were assessed through a retrospective cohort study of biting dogs investigated during the period from January 2013–December 2015. 1409 biting dogs were analyzed; 1361 dogs that were determined to not have rabies were compared to 48 laboratory-confirmed rabid dogs. Rate ratios, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values, negative predictive values, likelihood ratios, quarantine survival of biting dogs, and a risk matrix were developed. Findings: The assessor’s determination that the animal likely had rabies was the most significant predictive factor for a rabid dog (RR = 413.4, 95% CI 57.33–2985, Sn = 79.17, Sp = 91.92). Clinical factors significantly associated with rabid dogs included hypersalivation, paralysis, and lethargy (RR = 31.2, 19.7, 15.4, respectively). Rabid dogs were 23.2 times more likely to be found dead at the time of the investigation compared to case negative dogs (95% CI 14.0–38.6). Rabid dogs were also significantly more likely to lack a history of rabies vaccination or be unowned (RR = 10.3 95% CI 2.5–42.3 and RR = 4.5 95% CI 2.0–10.1, respectively). Rabid dogs were four times more likely to have bitten multiple people (RR = 4.0 95% CI 1.9–8.3). Most rabid dogs died or were killed before quarantine (75%) and all died by day 3 of quarantine, compared to <1% of quarantined case-negatives. The greatest risk of death was predicted to be for persons bitten on the head or neck from symptomatic dogs. Bites from dogs deemed healthy by veterinary assessors and which were available for quarantine presented less than a 0.05% risk of rabies death to the victim. Conclusions: Vaccination of all persons exposed to a suspected rabid dog is a highly effective approach to minimize human rabies deaths. However, this may place undue financial burden on bite victims that have had a low-risk exposure and over-prescription may contribute to regional supply shortages. The results here indicate that in a low-resource country such as Haiti, a well-trained veterinary assessor can provide an accurate risk assessment of biting dogs based on a standard case investigation protocol. In canine rabies endemic countries with limited access to PEP, or where PEP costs may cause undue burden on bite victims, structured risk assessments by trained professionals may be a reliable method of triaging PEP for bite victims. Evaluating rabies risk through a matrix of bite location and risk factor in the dog presents a clear delineation of high and low risk encounters and should be used to develop data-derived PEP recommendations