Interannual and Decadal Cycles in River Flows of Southeastern South America

The time series of annual streamflow of four rivers in southeastern and south-central South America (the Negro, Paraguay, Paraná, and Uruguay Rivers) for the period 1911–93 are analyzed. Application of the multitaper method shows that the following features are significant at the 95% level: 1) a nonlinear trend, 2) a near-decadal component, and 3) interannual peaks with ENSO timescales. The trend and near-decadal components are most marked in the two more central rivers, the Paraguay and Paraná, with ENSO timescale variability most pronounced in the Negro and Uruguay rivers in the southeast. Composites of SST are made for each of the statistically significant oscillatory components of river flow, by reconstructing each component using singular spectrum analysis. These composites confirm the influence of ENSO on the streamflow variability of the Negro and Uruguay Rivers, with El Niño associated with enhanced streamflow. On the decadal timescale, high river runoff is associated with anomalously cool SSTs over the tropical North Atlantic. A very similar near-decadal oscillation in SST over this region is identified separately from a rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis of gridded annual mean SSTs. The near-decadal component of the Paraguay and Paraná Rivers is strongest in the austral summer

Interannual and Interdecadal Variability of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone

Interannual variations of the summertime (January–March) atmospheric circulation over subtropical South America are examined during the period 1958–97 using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data. It is found from an empirical orthogonal function analysis that an anomalous upper-tropospheric large-scale stationary eddy in the lee of the Andes tends to accompany a dipole in anomalous vertical motion. An anomalous cyclonic (anticyclonic) eddy accompanies an intensified (diffuse) South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ), with anomalous descent (ascent) to the southwest. The cold-core equivalent barotropic vertical structure of the anomalous cyclonic eddy and the 200-hPa vorticity balance are both characteristic of a stationary Rossby wave; the tendency for the eddy to be advected downstream by the mean westerlies is compensated by meridional advection of planetary vorticity and stretching associated with vertical motion. The anomalous cyclonic flow at low levels reinforces the thermally direct circulation associated with the SACZ. A weak funneling of submonthly Rossby wave activity into this descent region is also identified. The interannual time series of the eddy is significantly correlated with north–south dipolar sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the southwest Atlantic; one standard deviation 200-hPa wind speed anomalies of up to 5 m s−1 are accompanied by SST anomalies of up to 0.3°C. A near-cyclic 15-yr component is identified, which the authors corroborate from independent analyses of southwest Atlantic SSTs and river flows; both are found to exhibit very similar oscillatory components. When the SACZ is intensified, the Paraná and Paraguay rivers in southern Brazil tend to swell, while the Uruguay and Negro rivers to the south tend to ebb; this north–south contrast in streamflow anomalies is most marked on the interdecadal timescale

Circulation Regimes and Low-Frequency Oscillations in the South Pacific Sector

The characteristics of subseasonal circulation variability over the South Pacific are examined using 10-day lowpass-filtered 700-hPa geopotential height NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data. The extent to which the variability in each season is characterized by recurrent geographically fixed circulation regimes and/or oscillatory behavior is determined. Two methods of analysis (a K-means cluster analysis and a cross-validated Gaussian mixture model) both indicate three to four geographically fixed circulation regimes in austral fall, winter, and (to some extent) spring. The spatial regime structures are found to be quite similar in each season; they resemble the so-called Pacific–South American (PSA) patterns discussed in previous studies and often referred to as PSA 1 and PSA 2. Oscillatory behavior is investigated using singular spectrum analysis. This identifies a predominantly stationary wave with a period of about 40 days and a spatial structure similar to PSA 1; it is most pronounced in winter and spring and exhibits a noticeable eastward drift as it decays. The power spectrum of variability is otherwise well approximated by a red spectrum, together with enhanced broader-band 15–30-day variability. The results presented herein indicate that low-frequency variability over the South Pacific is not dominated by a propagating wave whose quadrature phases are PSA 1 and PSA 2, as hitherto described. Rather, it is found that the variability is well described by the occurrence of three to four geographically fixed circulation regimes, with a (near) 40-day oscillation that is predominantly stationary in space. The potential subseasonal predictability implied by this duality is discussed. Only during austral spring is a strong correlation found between El Niño and the frequency of occurrence of the circulation regimes

Seasonal Dependence of ENSO Teleconnections over South America and Relationships with Precipitation in Uruguay

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has an established impact on precipitation in Uruguay during austral spring (October–December). This impact is absent in peak summer (January–February), and returns weakly in fall–winter (March–July). Interannual and intraseasonal variability of the atmospheric circulation over South America and the South Pacific is investigated using the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data for these seasons. The leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of seasonally averaged 200-hPa winds over South America is found to be associated with ENSO through a pronounced Walker cell component in all seasons. However, during spring, this pattern acquires an extratropical teleconnection that links the circulation over southeastern South America (SESA) with ENSO. This extratropical teleconnection disappears in summer, when the circulation over SESA is dominated by variability in the South Atlantic convergence zone. In fall, extratropical South America again becomes affected by a wavelike pattern that extends over the South Pacific, but it is uncorrelated with ENSO. On intraseasonal timescales, a cluster analysis of daily geopotential height fields over the South Pacific sector reveals three wave train–like circulation regimes with similar structures in all seasons. During the transition seasons (but not summer), the frequencies of occurrence of two of these regimes are found to be significantly different from normal in years when the interannual wavelike EOFs are pronounced. Interannual anomaly patterns are constructed from the intraseasonal regimes according to these changes in their frequency of occurrence, and shown to resemble quite closely the interannual EOFs over the South Pacific sector. These results provide evidence that the interannual teleconnection patterns seen over the South Pacific in austral spring and fall–winter are due to changes in the frequency of occurrence and amplitude of intraseasonal circulation regimes. The Rossby wave source composited over ENSO years suggests that ENSO heating anomalies are able to trigger these changes in regime occurrence and amplitude during October–December through Rossby wave propagation, leading to the known ENSO teleconnection in austral spring. By contrast, the interannual teleconnection over the South Pacific during fall–winter appears to be due to essentially random changes in the frequency of occurrence of the intraseasonal circulation regimes, which are found to be much larger than during austral summer when no extratropical teleconnection pattern exists

Ensembles of AGCM Two-Tier Predictions and Simulations of the Circulation Anomalies during Winter 1997–98

The impact of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on the extratropical circulation during the El Niño winter of 1997–98 is studied through atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) integrations. The model's midlatitude response is found to be very robust, of the correct amplitude, and to have a fairly realistic spatial structure. The sensitivity of the results to different aspects of the anomalous distributions of SST is analyzed. It is found that the extratropical circulation in the North Pacific–North American sector is significantly different if SST anomalies over the Indian Ocean are included. Using a comparison of observed and simulated 200-hPa streamfunction anomalies, it is argued that the modeled midlatitude impact of Indian Ocean SST anomalies is largely realistic. However, while the local sensitivity of the atmosphere to small differences in SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific can be substantial, the remote sensitivity in midlatitudes is small. Consistently, there is little difference between the simulated extratropical circulation anomalies obtained using SSTs predicted by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction in October 1997 and those obtained using observed tropical Pacific SSTs. Neither is there any detectable atmospheric signal associated with SST anomalies over the North Pacific. Analyses of the results presented here suggest that the influence of SST anomalies in the Pacific and Indian Oceans during the selected ENSO event can be interpreted as the quasi-linear superposition of Rossby wave trains emanating from the subtropics of each ocean. An inspection of intraseasonal weather regimes suggests that the influence of tropical SST anomalies can also be described as a shift in the frequency of occurrence of the model's modes of intrinsic variability and a change in their amplitude. These findings suggest the potential utility of SST forecasts for the tropical Indian Ocean

Simulations of the Atmospheric Response to South Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

The sensitivity of the atmospheric circulation to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical and subtropical South Atlantic Ocean is studied by means of simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). Two types of prescribed SST anomalies are used, motivated by previous analyses of data. The first occurs during austral summers in association with a strengthening of the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) and consists of cold SST anomalies over the subtropical South Atlantic. The second is the leading seasonally varying empirical orthogonal function of SST, consisting of warm basin-scale anomalies with maximum amplitude in the subtropics during January–March and at the equator in June. An ensemble of about 10 seasonal simulations is made using each type of anomaly, focusing on the January–March period in the first case and the January–June seasonal evolution in the second. During January–March both experiments yield a statistically significant baroclinic response over the subtropical Atlantic with dipolar SACZ-like anomalies. Some evidence of positive feedback is found. The response is shown to be fairly similar in pattern as well as amplitude to the linear regression of observed interannual low-level wind anomalies with subtropical SST anomalies. However, in the first experiment with cold SST anomalies, the simulated response contrasts with the leading interannual mode of observed SACZ variability. Warm basin-scale anomalies are found to have their largest impact during boreal summer, with a strong statistically significant equatorial baroclinic response and positive rainfall anomalies over the equatorial ocean. The latter do not extend appreciably into the adjacent continents, although there are significant positive rainfall anomalies over the Sahel in April–June and negative anomalies over the western Indian Ocean. In the upper troposphere, a statistically significant wave train extends southwestward to southern South America and northeastward to Europe in April–June, while there is some linkage between the tropically and subtropically forced responses during January–March

South Atlantic Variability Arising from Air–Sea Coupling: Local Mechanisms and Tropical–Subtropical Interactions

Interannual variability in the southern and equatorial Atlantic is investigated using an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) coupled to a slab ocean model (SOM) in the Atlantic in order to isolate features of air–sea interactions particular to this basin. Simulated covariability between sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and atmosphere is very similar to the observed non-ENSO-related covariations in both spatial structures and time scales. The leading simulated empirical coupled mode resembles the zonal mode in the tropical Atlantic, despite the lack of ocean dynamics, and is associated with baroclinic atmospheric anomalies in the Tropics and a Rossby wave train extending to the extratropics, suggesting an atmospheric response to tropical SST forcing. The second non-ENSO mode is the subtropical dipole in the SST with a mainly equivalent barotropic atmospheric anomaly centered on the subtropical high and associated with a midlatitude wave train, consistent with atmospheric forcing of the subtropical SST. The power spectrum of the tropical mode in both simulation and observation is red with two major interannual peaks near 5 and 2 yr. The quasi-biennial component exhibits a progression between the subtropics and the Tropics. It is phase locked to the seasonal cycle and owes its existence to the imbalances between SST–evaporation and SST–shortwave radiation feedbacks. These feedbacks are found to be reversed between the western and eastern South Atlantic, associated with the dominant role of deep convection in the west and that of shallow clouds in the east. A correct representation of tropical–extratropical interactions and of deep and shallow clouds may thus be crucial to the simulation of realistic interannual variability in the southern and tropical Atlantic

Interannual prediction of the Paraná River

Interannual‐to‐decadal predictability of the Paraná river in South America is investigated by extracting near‐cyclic components in summer‐season streamflows at Corrientes over the period 1904–1997. It is found that oscillatory components with periods of about 2–5, 8 and 17 years are accompanied by statistically significant changes in monthly streamflow. Autoregressive predictive models are constructed for each component. Cross‐validated categorical hindcasts based on the 8‐yr predicted component are found to yield some skill up to four years in advance for below‐average flows. A prediction based upon the 8‐ and 17‐yr components including data up to 1999 suggests increased probability of below‐average flows until 2006

ENSO coupling to the equatorial Atlantic: analysis with an extended improved recharge oscillator model

© 2023 Crespo-Miguel, Polo, Mechoso, Rodríguez-Fonseca and Cao-García. Weacknowledge Javier Jarillo and Lander R. Crespo for their help during the early stages of manuscript writing. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modeling, responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output. This work was financially supported by 817578 TRIATLAS project of the Horizon 2020 Programme (EU) and RTI2018095802-B-I00 and PID2021-125806NB-I00 of Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (Spain), Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER, EU), the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (EU-FP7/2007–2013) PREFACE (Grant Agreement No. 603521), the ERC STERCP project (grant 648982), the ARC Centre of Excellence in Climate Extremes (CE170100023) and the Spanish project (CGL201786415-R).Introduction: Observational and modeling studies have examined the interactions between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the equatorial Atlantic variability as incorporated into the classical charge-recharge oscillator model of ENSO. These studies included the role of the Atlantic in the predictability of ENSO but assumed stationarity in the relationships, i.e., that models’ coefficients do not change overtime. Arecentworkbytheauthors has challenged the stationarity assumption in the ENSO framework but without considering the equatorial Atlantic influence on ENSO. Methods: The present paper addresses the changing relationship between ENSO and the Atlantic El Niño using an extended version of the recharge oscillator model. The classical two-variable model of ENSO is extended by adding a linear coupling on the SST anomalies in the equatorial Atlantic. The model’s coefficients are computed for different periods. This calculation is done using two methods tofitthemodel tothe data: (1) the traditional method (ReOsc), and (2) a novel method (ReOsc+) based on fitting the Fisher’s Z transform of the auto and cross-correlation functions. Results: Weshowthat, duringthe 20th century, the characteristic dampingrate of the SST and thermocline depth anomalies in the Pacific have decreased in time by a factor of 2 and 3, respectively. Moreover, the damping time of the ENSO fluctuations has doubled from 10 to 20 months, and the oscillation period of ENSO has decreased from 60-70 months before the 1960s to 50 months afterward. These two changes have contributed to enhancing ENSO amplitude. The results also show that correlations between ENSO and the Atlantic SST strengthened after the 70s and the way in which the impact of the equatorial Atlantic is added to the internal ENSO variability. Conclusions: The remote effects of the equatorial Atlantic on ENSO must be considered in studies of ENSO dynamics and predictability during specific time-periods. Our results provide further insight into the evolution of the ENSO dynamics anditscoupling to the equatorial Atlantic, as well as an improved tool to study the coupling of climatic and ecological variables.Depto. de Estructura de la Materia, Física Térmica y ElectrónicaDepto. de Física de la Tierra y AstrofísicaFac. de Ciencias FísicasTRUEHorizon 2020 Programme (EU)Ministerio de Economía y CompetitividadFondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER, EU)European Union Seventh Framework ProgrammeERC STERCP projectARC Centre of Excellence in Climate ExtremesSpanish projectpu