31 research outputs found

    Religious Heterogamy and the Intergenerational Transmission of Religion in China

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    Research has long demonstrated that parents who do not share the same religious tradition produce less religious children than parents who do. Therefore, religious heterogamy has been associated with the generational decline of religion in Western societies. How about China, where religion has been resurging in the last few decades? Existing studies suggest two opposing possibilities, the restrictive and repressive national context may diminish parental impact on religious socialization, or the family of religious minorities withstands contextual pressures. Using the 2007 Spiritual Life Survey of Chinese Residents, we applied logistic regression modeling to examine patterns of association between having one or two religious parents during childhood and current religious affiliation, beliefs, behavior, and salience of the respondents in China. Analyses reveal that despite China’s atheist education system and strict religion policies, having at least one religiously affiliated parent is associated with increased religiosity compared to having two nonreligious parents. As the number of interreligious marriages rises in Chinese society, religious heterogamy contributes to the growth of religion among younger generations. Whereas religious heterogamy in the West has a secularizing effect on the next generation and contributes to religion’s decline, religious heterogamy in secular nations such as China has a religionizing effect and contributes to religion’s rise

    Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

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    Background: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Methods: The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk–outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk–outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk–outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk–outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. Findings: Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7–9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4–9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7–6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8–6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8–6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0–4 years and 5–14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9–27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5–28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3–56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9–21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3–12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6–1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1–1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4–78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2–72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). Interpretation: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions

    Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

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    Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

    Increased mitochondrial DNA diversity in ancient Columbia River basin Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha

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    The Columbia River and its tributaries provide essential spawning and rearing habitat for many salmonid species, including Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). Chinook salmon were historically abundant throughout the basin and Native Americans in the region relied heavily on these fish for thousands of years. Following the arrival of Europeans in the 1800s, salmon in the basin experienced broad declines linked to overfishing, water diversion projects, habitat destruction, connectivity reduction, introgression with hatchery-origin fish, and hydropower development. Despite historical abundance, many native salmonids are now at risk of extinction. Research and management related to Chinook salmon is usually explored under what are termed “the four H’s”: habitat, harvest, hatcheries, and hydropower; here we explore a fifth H, history. Patterns of prehistoric and contemporary mitochondrial DNA variation from Chinook salmon were analyzed to characterize and compare population genetic diversity prior to recent alterations and, thus, elucidate a deeper history for this species. A total of 346 ancient and 366 contemporary samples were processed during this study. Species was determined for 130 of the ancient samples and control region haplotypes of 84 of these were sequenced. Diversity estimates from these 84 ancient Chinook salmon were compared to 379 contemporary samples. Our analysis provides the first direct measure of reduced genetic diversity for Chinook salmon from the ancient to the contemporary period, as measured both in direct loss of mitochondrial haplotypes and reductions in haplotype and nucleotide diversity. However, these losses do not appear equal across the basin, with higher losses of diversity in the mid-Columbia than in the Snake subbasin. The results are unexpected, as the two groups were predicted to share a common history as parts of the larger Columbia River Basin, and instead indicate that Chinook salmon in these subbasins may have divergent demographic histories.Ye

    Sharing and community curation of mass spectrometry data with Global Natural Products Social Molecular Networking

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    The potential of the diverse chemistries present in natural products (NP) for biotechnology and medicine remains untapped because NP databases are not searchable with raw data and the NP community has no way to share data other than in published papers. Although mass spectrometry techniques are well-suited to high-throughput characterization of natural products, there is a pressing need for an infrastructure to enable sharing and curation of data. We present Global Natural Products Social molecular networking (GNPS, http://gnps.ucsd.edu), an open-access knowledge base for community wide organization and sharing of raw, processed or identified tandem mass (MS/MS) spectrometry data. In GNPS crowdsourced curation of freely available community-wide reference MS libraries will underpin improved annotations. Data-driven social-networking should facilitate identification of spectra and foster collaborations. We also introduce the concept of ‘living data’ through continuous reanalysis of deposited data

    The Ecological Effects of Religion on Health and Mortality in China

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    Public health research is only beginning to recognize that the demographic presence and socio-cultural influence of religion in local geographic areas affect population health and mortality. This dissertation project expands this work to mainland China where I investigate the ecological effect of religion on the physical health and mortality of China\u27s rapidly aging population. I emphasize religion as a socio-cultural characteristic of communities and incorporate theoretical explanations for the religion-health connection into social epidemiological frameworks. Using geographic data of religious sites in China merged with population census reports and a longitudinal survey of older adults, I apply statistical methods for analyzing spatial and multilevel data to identify patterns in health and mortality associated with the religious composition of local Chinese areas. Overall, these patterns indicate that religion is an important ecological factor affecting the health and mortality of Chinese people. Results show that the presence of Buddhism and Islam in Chinese counties and prefectures are associated with lower mortality rates but that this association is due to common links with ethnic minority populations. The presence of Buddhism and Islam in Chinese prefectures is associated with worse self-rated health, whereas the presence of Christianity and Daoism in prefectures is associated with better self-rated health. Daoism is also associated with fewer chronic illnesses. Mediation analyses, however, do not provide evidence that social participation, social support, and health behaviors link these associations. Using China as a comparative case, this study draws attention to the religious environment as an important socio-cultural health factor, even in one of the least religious and most highly regulated societies in the world. Understanding factors associated with who gets sick and wherecan help reduce health inequalities, identify opportunities for disease prevention, and determine where more resources are needed

    Religious Heterogamy and the Intergenerational Transmission of Religion: A Cross-National Analysis

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    This study examines the effect of religious heterogamy on the transmission of religion from one generation to the next. Using data from 37 countries in the 2008 Religion III Module of the International Social Survey Programme (ISSP), I conduct a cross-national analysis of the relationship between parents’ religious heterogamy and their adult childrens’ religious lives. By estimating fixed effects regression models, I adjust for national-level confounders to examine patterns of association between having interreligious parents during childhood and level of adult religiosity as measured by self-rated religiousness, belief in God, and frequencies of religious attendance and prayer. The results indicate that having religiously heterogamous parents or parents with dissimilar religious attendance patterns are both associated with lower overall religiosity in respondents. Parents’ religious attendance, however, mediates the relationship when each parent has a different religion. Having one unaffiliated parent is associated with lower religiosity regardless of parents’ levels of religious attendance. The negative impact of parents’ religious heterogamy on religious inheritance is independent of national-level factors and has implications for anticipating changes in the religious landscapes of societies characterized by religious diversity and growing numbers of interreligious marriages

    Targeting of HER/ErbB family proteins using broad spectrum Sec61 inhibitors coibamide A and apratoxin A

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    Coibamide A is a potent cancer cell toxin and one of a select group of natural products that inhibit protein entry into the secretory pathway via a direct inhibition of the Sec61 protein translocon. Many Sec61 client proteins are clinically relevant drug targets once trafficked to their final destination in or outside the cell, however the use of Sec61 inhibitors to block early biosynthesis of specific proteins is at a pre-clinical stage. In the present study we evaluated the action of coibamide A against human epidermal growth factor receptor (HER, ErbB) proteins in representative breast and lung cancer cell types. HERs were selected for this study as they represent a family of Sec61 clients that is frequently dysregulated in human cancers, including coibamide-sensitive cell types. Although coibamide A inhibits biogenesis of a broad range of Sec61 substrate proteins in a presumed substrate nonselective manner, endogenous HER3 (ErbB-3) and EGFR (ErbB-1) proteins were more sensitive to coibamide A, and the related Sec61 inhibitor apratoxin A, than HER2 (ErbB-2). Despite this rank order of sensitivity (HER3 > EGFR > HER2), Sec61-dependent inhibition by coibamide A was sufficient to decrease cell surface expression of HER2. We report that coibamide Aor apratoxin A-mediated block of HER3 entry into the secretory pathway is unlikely to be mediated by the HER3 signal peptide alone. HER3 (G11L/S15L), that is fully resistant to the highly substrate-selective cotransin analogue CT8, was more resistant than wild-type HER3 but only at low coibamide A (3 nM) concentrations; HER3 (G11L/S15L) expression was inhibited by higher concentrations of either natural product. Timeand concentration-dependent decreases in HER protein expression induced a commensurate reduction in AKT/MAPK signaling in breast and lung cancer cell types and loss in cell viability. Coibamide A potentiated the cytotoxic efficacy of small molecule kinase inhibitors lapatinib and erlotinib in breast and lung cancer cell types, respectively. These data indicate that natural product modulators of Sec61 function have value as chemical probes to interrogate HER/ErbB signaling in treatment-resistant human cancers.Peer reviewe
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