Syndromic surveillance using veterinary laboratory data : algorithm combination and customization of alerts

Background: Syndromic surveillance research has focused on two main themes: the search for data sources that can provide early disease detection; and the development of efficient algorithms that can detect potential outbreak signals. Methods: This work combines three algorithms that have demonstrated solid performance in detecting simulated outbreak signals of varying shapes in time series of laboratory submissions counts. These are: the Shewhart control charts designed to detect sudden spikes in counts; the EWMA control charts developed to detect slow increasing outbreaks; and the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing, which can explicitly account for temporal effects in the data stream monitored. A scoring system to detect and report alarms using these algorithms in a complementary way is proposed. Results: The use of multiple algorithms in parallel resulted in increased system sensitivity. Specificity was decreased in simulated data, but the number of false alarms per year when the approach was applied to real data was considered manageable (between 1 and 3 per year for each of ten syndromic groups monitored). The automated implementation of this approach, including a method for on-line filtering of potential outbreak signals is described. Conclusion: The developed system provides high sensitivity for detection of potential outbreak signals while also providing robustness and flexibility in establishing what signals constitute an alarm. This flexibility allows an analyst to customize the system for different syndromes

Final Report: Improved Site Characterization And Storage Prediction Through Stochastic Inversion Of Time-Lapse Geophysical And Geochemical Data

During the last months of this project, our project activities have concentrated on four areas: (1) performing a stochastic inversion of pattern 16 seismic data to deduce reservoir bulk/shear moduli and density; the need for this inversion was not anticipated in the original scope of work, (2) performing a stochastic inversion of pattern 16 seismic data to deduce reservoir porosity and permeability, (3) complete the software needed to perform geochemical inversions and (4) use the software to perform stochastic inversion of aqueous chemistry data to deduce mineral volume fractions. This report builds on work described in progress reports previously submitted (Ramirez et al., 2009, 2010, 2011 - reports fulfilled the requirements of deliverables D1-D4) and fulfills deliverable D5: Field-based single-pattern simulations work product. The main challenge with our stochastic inversion approach is its large computational expense, even for single reservoir patterns. We dedicated a significant level of effort to improve computational efficiency but inversions involving multiple patterns were still intractable by project's end. As a result, we were unable to fulfill Deliverable D6: Field-based multi-pattern simulations work product

Exploratory analysis of methods for automated classification of laboratory test orders into syndromic groups in veterinary medicine

Background: Recent focus on earlier detection of pathogen introduction in human and animal populations has led to the development of surveillance systems based on automated monitoring of health data. Real- or near real-time monitoring of pre-diagnostic data requires automated classification of records into syndromes-syndromic surveillance-using algorithms that incorporate medical knowledge in a reliable and efficient way, while remaining comprehensible to end users. Methods: This paper describes the application of two of machine learning (Naïve Bayes and Decision Trees) and rule-based methods to extract syndromic information from laboratory test requests submitted to a veterinary diagnostic laboratory. Results: High performance (F1-macro = 0.9995) was achieved through the use of a rule-based syndrome classifier, based on rule induction followed by manual modification during the construction phase, which also resulted in clear interpretability of the resulting classification process. An unmodified rule induction algorithm achieved an F1-micro score of 0.979 though this fell to 0.677 when performance for individual classes was averaged in an unweighted manner (F1-macro), due to the fact that the algorithm failed to learn 3 of the 16 classes from the training set. Decision Trees showed equal interpretability to the rule-based approaches, but achieved an F1-micro score of 0.923 (falling to 0.311 when classes are given equal weight). A Naïve Bayes classifier learned all classes and achieved high performance (F1-micro = 0.994 and F1-macro =. 955), however the classification process is not transparent to the domain experts. Conclusion: The use of a manually customised rule set allowed for the development of a system for classification of laboratory tests into syndromic groups with very high performance, and high interpretability by the domain experts. Further research is required to develop internal validation rules in order to establish automated methods to update model rules without user input

One-health simulation modelling : assessment of control strategies against the spread of influenza between swine and human populations using NAADSM

Simulation models implemented using a range of parameters offer a useful approach to identifying effective disease intervention strategies. The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of key control strategies to mitigate the simultaneous spread of influenza among and between swine and human populations. We used the pandemic H1N1 2009 virus as a case study. The study population included swine herds (488 herds) and households-of-people (29 707 households) within a county in Ontario, Canada. Households were categorized as: (i) rural households with swine workers, (ii) rural households without swine workers and (iii) urban households without swine workers. Seventy-two scenarios were investigated based on a combination of the parameters of speed of detection and control strategies, such as quarantine strategy, effectiveness of movement restriction and ring vaccination strategy, all assessed at three levels of transmissibility of the virus at the swine-human interface. Results showed that the speed of detection of the infected units combined with the quarantine strategy had the largest impact on the duration and size of outbreaks. A combination of fast to moderate speed of the detection (where infected units were detected within 5-10 days since first infection) and quarantine of the detected units alone contained the outbreak within the swine population in most of the simulated outbreaks. Ring vaccination had no added beneficial effect. In conclusion, our study suggests that the early detection (and therefore effective surveillance) and effective quarantine had the largest impact in the control of the influenza spread, consistent with earlier studies. To our knowledge, no study had previously assessed the impact of the combination of different intervention strategies involving the simultaneous spread of influenza between swine and human populations

Syndromic surveillance using veterinary laboratory data : data pre-processing and algorithm performance evaluation

Diagnostic test orders to an animal laboratory were explored as a data source for monitoring trends in the incidence of clinical syndromes in cattle. Four years of real data and over 200 simulated outbreak signals were used to compare pre-processing methods that could remove temporal effects in the data, as well as temporal aberration detection algorithms that provided high sensitivity and specificity. Weekly differencing demonstrated solid performance in removing day-of-week effects, even in series with low daily counts. For aberration detection, the results indicated that no single algorithm showed performance superior to all others across the range of outbreak scenarios simulated. Exponentially weighted moving average charts and Holt-Winters exponential smoothing demonstrated complementary performance, with the latter offering an automated method to adjust to changes in the time series that will likely occur in the future. Shewhart charts provided lower sensitivity but earlier detection in some scenarios. Cumulative sum charts did not appear to add value to the system; however, the poor performance of this algorithm was attributed to characteristics of the data monitored. These findings indicate that automated monitoring aimed at early detection of temporal aberrations will likely be most effective when a range of algorithms are implemented in parallel

Reply to “Geochemical Characteristics of Anatolian Basalts: Comment on ‘Neogene Uplift and Magmatism of Anatolia: Insights from Drainage Analysis and Basaltic Geochemistry’ by McNab et al.”

Uslular and Gençalioğlu‐Kuşcu (2018) have written a lengthy, and highly critical, comment about McNab et al. (2018, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GC007251) which states that our data compilation for Neogene (and Quaternary) volcanic rocks from Anatolia is selective, inconsistent, and not fit for purpose. We state for the record that our compilation is not based on analyses from the published GEOROC database. Uslular and Gençalioğlu‐Kuşcu (2018) also state that our subdivision of this database into three broad longitudinal categories is unrealistic since it does not consider the full range of different tectonic units. They conclude that our interpretation of the link between Neogene‐Quaternary volcanism and uplift of Anatolia is erroneous. We refute this rather strongly worded comment by carefully addressing the five substantive issues raised

Retrospective time series analysis of veterinary laboratory data : Preparing a historical baseline for cluster detection in syndromic surveillance

The practice of disease surveillance has shifted in the last two decades towards the introduction of systems capable of early detection of disease. Modern biosurveillance systems explore different sources of pre-diagnostic data, such as patient's chief complaint upon emergency visit or laboratory test orders. These sources of data can provide more rapid detection than traditional surveillance based on case confirmation, but are less specific, and therefore their use poses challenges related to the presence of background noise and unlabelled temporal aberrations in historical data. The overall goal of this study was to carry out retrospective analysis using three years of laboratory test submissions to the Animal Health Laboratory in the province of Ontario, Canada, in order to prepare the data for use in syndromic surveillance. Daily cases were grouped into syndromes and counts for each syndrome were monitored on a daily basis when medians were higher than one case per day, and weekly otherwise. Poisson regression accounting for day-of-week and month was able to capture the day-of-week effect with minimal influence from temporal aberrations. Applying Poisson regression in an iterative manner, that removed data points above the predicted 95th percentile of daily counts, allowed for the removal of these aberrations in the absence of labelled outbreaks, while maintaining the day-of-week effect that was present in the original data. This resulted in the construction of time series that represent the baseline patterns over the past three years, free of temporal aberrations. The final method was thus able to remove temporal aberrations while keeping the original explainable effects in the data, did not need a training period free of aberrations, had minimal adjustment to the aberrations present in the raw data, and did not require labelled outbreaks. Moreover, it was readily applicable to the weekly data by substituting Poisson regression with moving 95th percentiles

Dissolved gas and isotopic tracers of denitrification

We present results from field studies in California (USA) where tritium-helium age dating is used in conjunction with major gases (N{sub 2}, O{sub 2}, CH{sub 4}, CO{sub 2}), noble gases (He, Ne, Ar, Kr, Xe), and stable isotopes ({sup 15}N/{sup 14}N, {sup 18}O/{sup 16}O) in order to document nitrate loading and denitrification associated with confined animal agricultural operations and septic systems. Preliminary results show that in-field extraction of the full suite of dissolved gases will be possible using a new Gas Extraction System under development to augment the current Noble Gas Mass Spectrometry and Membrane Inlet Mass Spectrometry techniques. Ascribing observed groundwater nitrate levels to specific current and past land use practices is often complicated by uncertainty in groundwater age and the degree and locus of dentrification. Groundwater age dating at dairy field sites using the {sup 3}H-{sup 3}He method indicates that the highest nitrate concentrations (150-260 mg/L-NO3) occur in waters with apparent ages of <5 yrs, whereas older waters contain excess N{sub 2} from saturated zone denitrification [1]. At a residential septic system site in Livermore, CA, waters with young apparent ages (<1 yr) proximal to leach line drainage have lower nitrate concentrations and elevated nitrate {delta}{sup 15}N and {delta}{sup 18}O values consistent with denitrification, but little evidence for excess N{sub 2}, indicating that denitrification is occurring in the unsaturated zone. Degassing of groundwater can complicate efforts to calculate travel times [2] and to quantify denitrification. Degassed groundwater underlying dairy operations is formed by two distinct mechanisms: (1) recharge of manure lagoon water affected by biogenic gas ebullition [3] and (2) saturated zone denitrification producing N{sub 2} gas above solubility in groundwater. Gas loss due to both mechanisms is evident in the concentrations of noble gases and major gases in dairy groundwater samples

Progress Report, December 2010: Improved Site Characterization And Storage Prediction Through Stochastic Inversion Of Time-Lapse Geophysical And Geochemical Data

Over the last project six months, our project activities have concentrated on three areas: (1) performing a stochastic inversion of pattern 16 seismic data to deduce reservoir permeability, (2) development of the geochemical inversion strategy and implementation of associated software, and (3) completing the software implementation of TProGS and the geostatistical analysis that provides the information needed when using the software to produce realizations of the Midale reservoir. The report partially the following deliverables: D2: Model development: MCMC tool (synthetic fluid chemistry data); deliverable completed. D4: Model development/verification: MCMC tool (TProGS, field seismic/chemistry data) work product; deliverable requirements partially fulfilled. D5: Field-based single-pattern simulations work product; deliverable requirements partially fulfilled. When completed, our completed stochastic inversion tool will explicitly integrate reactive transport modeling, facies-based geostatistical methods, and a novel stochastic inversion technique to optimize agreement between observed and predicted storage performance. Such optimization will be accomplished through stepwise refinement of: (1) the reservoir model - principally its permeability magnitude and heterogeneity - and (2) geochemical parameters - primarily key mineral volume fractions and kinetic data. We anticipate that these refinements will facilitate significantly improved history matching and forward modeling of CO{sub 2} storage. Our tool uses the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology. Deliverable D1, previously submitted as a report titled ''Development of a Stochastic Inversion Tool To Optimize Agreement Between The Observed And Predicted Seismic Response To CO{sub 2} Injection/Migration in the Weyburn-Midale Project'' (Ramirez et al., 2009), described the stochastic inversion approach that will identify reservoir models that optimize agreement between the observed and predicted seismic response. The software that implements this approach has been completed, tested, and used to process seismic data from pattern 16. A previously submitted report titled ''Model verification: synthetic single pattern simulations using seismic reflection data'', Ramirez et al. 2010, partially fulfilled deliverable D3 by summarizing verification activities that evaluate the performance of the seismic software and its ability to recover reservoir model permeabilities using synthetic seismic reflection data. A future progress report will similarly describe summarizing verification activities of the geochemical inversion software, thereby completing deliverable D3. This document includes a chapter that shows and discusses permeability models produced by seismic inversion that used seismic data from pattern 16 in Phase 1A. It partially fulfills deliverable D5: Field-based single-pattern simulations work product. The D5 work product is supposed to summarize the results of applying NUFT/MCMC to refine the reservoir model and geochemical parameters by optimizing observation/prediction agreement for the seismic/geochemical response to CO{sub 2} injection/migration within a single pattern of Phase 1A/1B. A future progress report will show inversion results for the same pattern using geochemical data, thereby completing deliverable D5. This document also contains a chapter that fulfills deliverable D2: Model development: MCMC tool (synthetic fluid chemistry data). The chapter will summarize model development activities required to facilitate application of NUFT/MCMC to optimize agreement between the observed and predicted geochemical response to CO{sub 2} injection/migration. Lastly, this document also contains a chapter that partially fulfills deliverable D4: Model development/verification: MCMC tool (TProGS, field seismic/chemistry data) work product. This work product is supposed to summarize model development activities required for (1) application of TProGS to Weyburn, (2) use of TProGS within the MCMC tool, and (3) application of the MCMC tool to address field seismic and geochemical data. The chapter included here fulfills requirements 1 and 2. Requirement 3 will be addressed in a future progress report