Construct-level predictive validity of educational attainment and intellectual aptitude tests in medical student selection: meta-regression of six UK longitudinal studies

Background: Measures used for medical student selection should predict future performance during training. A problem for any selection study is that predictor-outcome correlations are known only in those who have been selected, whereas selectors need to know how measures would predict in the entire pool of applicants. That problem of interpretation can be solved by calculating construct-level predictive validity, an estimate of true predictor-outcome correlation across the range of applicant abilities. Methods: Construct-level predictive validities were calculated in six cohort studies of medical student selection and training (student entry, 1972 to 2009) for a range of predictors, including A-levels, General Certificates of Secondary Education (GCSEs)/O-levels, and aptitude tests (AH5 and UK Clinical Aptitude Test (UKCAT)). Outcomes included undergraduate basic medical science and finals assessments, as well as postgraduate measures of Membership of the Royal Colleges of Physicians of the United Kingdom (MRCP(UK)) performance and entry in the Specialist Register. Construct-level predictive validity was calculated with the method of Hunter, Schmidt and Le (2006), adapted to correct for right-censorship of examination results due to grade inflation. Results: Meta-regression analyzed 57 separate predictor-outcome correlations (POCs) and construct-level predictive validities (CLPVs). Mean CLPVs are substantially higher (.450) than mean POCs (.171). Mean CLPVs for first-year examinations, were high for A-levels (.809; CI: .501 to .935), and lower for GCSEs/O-levels (.332; CI: .024 to .583) and UKCAT (mean = .245; CI: .207 to .276). A-levels had higher CLPVs for all undergraduate and postgraduate assessments than did GCSEs/O-levels and intellectual aptitude tests. CLPVs of educational attainment measures decline somewhat during training, but continue to predict postgraduate performance. Intellectual aptitude tests have lower CLPVs than A-levels or GCSEs/O-levels. Conclusions: Educational attainment has strong CLPVs for undergraduate and postgraduate performance, accounting for perhaps 65% of true variance in first year performance. Such CLPVs justify the use of educational attainment measure in selection, but also raise a key theoretical question concerning the remaining 35% of variance (and measurement error, range restriction and right-censorship have been taken into account). Just as in astrophysics, ‘dark matter’ and ‘dark energy’ are posited to balance various theoretical equations, so medical student selection must also have its ‘dark variance’, whose nature is not yet properly characterized, but explains a third of the variation in performance during training. Some variance probably relates to factors which are unpredictable at selection, such as illness or other life events, but some is probably also associated with factors such as personality, motivation or study skills

Who does better for the economy? Presidents versus parliamentary democracies

Are certain forms of government associated with superior economic outcomes? This paper attempts to answer that question by examining how government systems influence macroeconomic performance. We find that presidential regimes consistently are associated with less favorable outcomes than parliamentary regimes: slower output growth, higher and more volatile inflation and greater income inequality. Moreover, the magnitude of the effect is sizable. For example, annual output growth is between 0.6 and 1.2 percentage points lower and inflation is estimated to be at least four percentage points higher under presidential regimes relative to those under parliamentary ones

Managing public debt in the UK

The Covid-19 pandemic that emerged in early 2020 quickly turned into an economic crisis of unprecedented proportions. The UK, one of the worst affected countries, suffered 9.9 per cent drop in output in 2020, the deepest recession in 300 years.4 The required public health expenditure in the fight against the coronavirus and the ballooning cost of support programs to both the households and businesses led to a sharp rise in government spending.5 When combined with the significant drop in tax revenues following the contraction in economic activity, the surge in spending pushed the debt burden to levels previously unseen in peace times. This article assesses the evolution of government debt in the UK both in recent past as well as over the last century to put the current escalation in indebtedness into context. We then present the sources of debt consolidation both in general, and in the UK context. Finally, we provide an evaluation of likely scenarios for debt management in the UK in its transitioning to a post-Covid-19 world

Determination and Occurrence of Phenoxyacetic Acid Herbicides and Their Transformation Products in Groundwater Using Ultra High Performance Liquid Chromatography Coupled to Tandem Mass Spectrometry

This research is funded by the National Development Plan, through the Research Stimulus Fund, administered by the Department of Agriculture, Food and Marine (RS-544) and the Teagasc Walsh Fellowship Scheme.peer-reviewedA sensitive method was developed and validated for ten phenoxyacetic acid herbicides, six of their main transformation products (TPs) and two benzonitrile TPs in groundwater. The parent compounds mecoprop, mecoprop-p, 2,4-D, dicamba, MCPA, triclopyr, fluroxypr, bromoxynil, bentazone, and 2,3,6-trichlorobenzoic acid (TBA) are included and a selection of their main TPs: phenoxyacetic acid (PAC), 2,4,5-trichloro-phenol (TCP), 4-chloro-2-methylphenol (4C2MP), 2,4-dichlorophenol (DCP), 3,5,6-trichloro-2-pyridinol (T2P), and 3,5-dibromo-4-hydroxybenzoic acid (BrAC), as well as the dichlobenil TPs 2,6-dichlorobenzamide (BAM) and 3,5-dichlorobenzoic acid (DBA) which have never before been determined in Irish groundwater. Water samples were analysed using an efficient ultra-high performance liquid chromatography (UHPLC) method in an 11.9 min separation time prior to detection by tandem mass spectrometry (MS/MS). The limit of detection (LOD) of the method ranged between 0.00008 and 0.0047 µg·L−1 for the 18 analytes. All compounds could be detected below the permitted limits of 0.1 µg·L−1 allowed in the European Union (EU) drinking water legislation [1]. The method was validated according to EU protocols laid out in SANCO/10232/2006 with recoveries ranging between 71% and 118% at the spiked concentration level of 0.06 µg·L−1. The method was successfully applied to 42 groundwater samples collected across several locations in Ireland in March 2012 to reveal that the TPs PAC and 4C2MP were detected just as often as their parent active ingredients (a.i.) in groundwater

Neon Nature

The goal of this work is to explore my painting of nature in our contemporary time, considering the current geological epoch termed the Anthropocene, an era I think of as postnatural. Neon Nature is a collection of portraits of hypernatural creatures I call “pseudo-specimens”. These pseudo-specimens symbolize hypernature, which describes manufactured nature as better than authentic nature. These specimens are painted in vanitas-inspired still life scenes to act as a reminder of our changing nature, or new-nature. Influenced by living in suburbia where nature is manicured and controlled, I am interested in the divide between the “born” and the “made,” the natural versus artificial, and the human urge to manipulate and control nature. I believe depictions of nature in contemporary art must reflect the new nature of the Anthropocene, or hypernature, where we now question what is truly “natural.” I paint these fictitious creatures to slow down and study my conflicted feelings on the current state of nature, and to create contemporary vanitas that serve to remind the viewer of our new, hypernatural nature

Shear-free, Irrotational, Geodesic, Anisotropic Fluid Cosmologies

General relativistic anisotropic fluid models whose fluid flow lines form a shear-free, irrotational, geodesic timelike congruence are examined. These models are of Petrov type D, and are assumed to have zero heat flux and an anisotropic stress tensor that possesses two distinct non-zero eigenvalues. Some general results concerning the form of the metric and the stress-tensor for these models are established. Furthermore, if the energy density and the isotropic pressure, as measured by a comoving observer, satisfy an equation of state of the form $p = p(\mu)$, with $\frac{dp}{d\mu} \neq -\frac{1}{3}$, then these spacetimes admit a foliation by spacelike hypersurfaces of constant Ricci scalar. In addition, models for which both the energy density and the anisotropic pressures only depend on time are investigated; both spatially homogeneous and spatially inhomogeneous models are found. A classification of these models is undertaken. Also, a particular class of anisotropic fluid models which are simple generalizations of the homogeneous isotropic cosmological models is studied.Comment: 13 pages LaTe

Self-monitoring for improving control of blood pressue in patients with hypertension

The objective of this review is to determine the effect of SBPM in adults with hypertension on blood pressure control as compared to OBPM or usual care

Schistosomiasis as a Cause of Chronic Lower Abdominal Pain

Background: Chronic intestinal schistosomiasis is rare in the United Kingdom. The symptoms are nonspecific and may mimic several other gastrointestinal conditions. We present a case of chronic intestinal schistosomiasis in a West Indian woman presenting to a genitourinary clinic