Latest climate models confirm need for urgent mitigation

Many recently updated climate models show greater future warming than previously. Separate lines of evidence suggest that their warming rates may be unrealistically high, but the risk of such eventualities only emphasizes the need for rapid and deep reductions in emissions

Stringent mitigation substantially reduces risk of unprecedented near-term warming rates

Following the Paris Agreement, many countries are enacting targets to achieve net-zero GHG emissions. Stringent mitigation will have clear societal benefits in the second half of this century by limiting peak warming and stabilizing climate. However, the near-term benefits of mitigation are generally thought to be less clear because forced surface temperature trends can be masked by internal variability. Here we use observationally constrained projections from the latest comprehensive climate models and a simple climate model emulator to show that pursuing stringent mitigation consistent with holding long-term warming below 1.5 °C reduces the risk of unprecedented warming rates in the next 20 years by a factor of 13 compared with a no mitigation scenario, even after accounting for internal variability. Therefore, in addition to long-term benefits, stringent mitigation offers substantial near-term benefits by offering societies and ecosystems a greater chance to adapt to and avoid the worst climate change impacts

Calculation of health expectancies with administrative data for North Rhine-Westphalia, a Federal State of Germany, 1999–2005

Pinheiro JP, Krämer A. Calculation of health expectancies with administrative data for North Rhine-Westphalia, a Federal State of Germany, 1999-2005. Population Health Metrics. 2009;7(1):4.OBJECTIVES: The main objectives of this study were to prove the feasibility of health expectancy analyses with regional administrative health statistics and to explore the utility of the calculated health expectancies in describing the health state of the population living in North Rhine-Westphalia, a Federal State of Germany. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Administrative population and mortality data as well as health data on disability and long-term care provided by public services were used to calculate: a) the life expectancy and b) the health expectancies Severe-Disability-Free Life Expectancy (SDFLE) and Long-Term-Care-Free Life Expectancy (LTCFLE) from 1999 to 2005. Calculations were done using the Sullivan method. RESULTS: SDFLE at birth was 69.9 years (males 66.2 and females 73.2 years) in 1999 and it increased to 71.7 years (males 68.6 and females 74.7 years) in 2005. The proportion of the SDFLE on the total life expectancy at birth was 89.8% (males 88.6 and females 90.8%) in 1999 and 90.7% (males 89.8 and females 91.4%) in 2005.LTCFLE at birth was 75.3 years (males 73.1 and females 77.5 years) in 1999 and it increased to 76.6 years (males 74.7 and females 78.6 years) in 2005. The proportion of the LTCFLE on the total life expectancy at birth was 96.8% (males 97.8 and females 96.1%) in 1999 and 96.8% (males 97.8 and females 96.2%) in 2005. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: Both health expectancies indicate an improvement in the quantity as well as in the quality of healthy life for the population living in North Rhine Westphalia and therefore suggest a compression of morbidity from 1999 to 2005. The findings however have several limitations in their sensitivity, since we applied dichotomous valuations to the health states. In addition, the results are restricted to comparisons over time because the morbidity concepts do not allow for comparisons with populations other than the German one. Refined calculations with other summary measures of population health and with health data on other morbidity concepts are therefore reasonable

Reflecting the real value of health care resources in modelling and cost-effectiveness studies-The example of viral load informed differentiated care

BACKGROUND: The WHO HIV Treatment Guidelines suggest routine viral-load monitoring can be used to differentiate antiretroviral therapy (ART) delivery and reduce the frequency of clinic visits for patients stable on ART. This recommendation was informed by economic analysis that showed the approach is very likely to be cost-effective, even in the most resource constrained of settings. The health benefits were shown to be modest but the costs of introducing and scaling up viral load monitoring can be offset by anticipated reductions in the costs of clinic visits, due to these being less frequent for many patients. KEY ISSUES FOR ECONOMIC EVALUATION: The cost-effectiveness of introducing viral-load informed differentiated care depends upon whether cost reductions are possible if the number of clinic visits is reduced and/or how freed clinic capacity is used for alternative priorities. Where freed resources, either physical or financial, generate large health gains (e.g. if committed to patients failing ART or to other high value health care interventions), the benefits of differentiated care are expected to be high; if however these freed physical resources are already under-utilized or financial resources are used less efficiently and would not be put to as beneficial an alternative use, the policy may not be cost-effective. The implication is that the use of conventional unit costs to value resources may not well reflect the latter's value in contributing to health improvement. Analyses intended to inform resource allocated decisions in a number of settings may therefore have to be interpreted with due consideration to local context. In this paper we present methods of how economic analyses can reflect the real value of health care resources rather than simply applying their unit costs. The analyses informing the WHO Guidelines are re-estimated by implementing scenarios using this framework, informing how differentiated care can be prioritized to generate greatest gains in population health. IMPLICATIONS: The findings have important implications for how economic analyses should be undertaken and reported in HIV and other disease areas. Results provide guidance on conditions under which viral load informed differentiated care will more likely prove to be cost effective when implemented

Improving the oral health of older people in care homes (TOPIC): a protocol for a feasibility study

BACKGROUND: Evidence for interventions promoting oral health amongst care home residents is weak. The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guideline NG48 aims to maintain and improve the oral health of care home residents. A co-design process that worked with residents and care home staff to understand how the NG48 guideline could be best implemented in practice has been undertaken to refine a complex intervention. The aim of this study is to assess the feasibility of the intervention to inform a future larger scale definitive trial. METHODS: This is a protocol for a pragmatic cluster randomised controlled trial with a 12-month follow-up that will be undertaken in 12 care homes across two sites (six in London, six in Northern Ireland). Care homes randomised to the intervention arm (n = 6) will receive the complex intervention based on the NG48 guideline, whilst care homes randomised to the control arm (n = 6) will continue with routine practice. The intervention will include a training package for care home staff to promote knowledge and skills in oral health promotion, the use of the Oral Health Assessment Tool on residents by trained care home staff, and a 'support worker assisted' daily tooth-brushing regime with toothpaste containing 1500 ppm fluoride. An average of ten residents, aged 65 years or over who have at least one natural tooth, will be recruited in each care home resulting in a recruited sample of 120 participants. Assessments will be undertaken at baseline, 6 months and 12 months, and will include a dental examination and questionnaires on general health and oral health administered by a research assistant. A parallel process evaluation involving semi-structured interviews will be undertaken to explore how the intervention could be embedded in standard practice. Rates of recruitment and retention, and intervention fidelity will also be recorded. A cost-consequence model will determine the relevance of different outcome measures in the decision-making context. DISCUSSION: The study will provide valuable information for trialists, policymakers, clinicians and care home staff on the feasibility and associated costs of oral health promotion in UK care homes. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN10276613. Registered on 17th April 2020. http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN10276613

Burden of disease in Thailand: changes in health gap between 1999 and 2004

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Continuing comprehensive assessment of population health gap is essential for effective health planning. This paper assessed changes in the magnitude and pattern of disease burden in Thailand between 1999 and 2004. It further drew lessons learned from applying the global burden of disease (GBD) methods to the Thai context for other developing country settings.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Multiple sources of mortality and morbidity data for both years were assessed and used to estimate Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) loss for 110 specific diseases and conditions relevant to the country's health problems. Causes of death from national vital registration were adjusted for misclassification from a verbal autopsy study.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Between 1999 and 2004, DALYs loss per 1,000 population in 2004 slightly decreased in men but a minor increase in women was observed. HIV/AIDS maintained the highest burden for men in both 1999 and 2004 while in 2004, stroke took over the 1999 first rank of HIV/AIDS in women. Among the top twenty diseases, there was a slight increase of the proportion of non-communicable diseases and two out of three infectious diseases revealed a decrease burden except for lower respiratory tract infections.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The study highlights unique pattern of disease burden in Thailand whereby epidemiological transition have occurred as non-communicable diseases were on the rise but burden from HIV/AIDS resulting from the epidemic in the 1990s remains high and injuries show negligent change. Lessons point that assessing DALY over time critically requires continuing improvement in data sources particularly on cause of death statistics, institutional capacity and long term commitments.</p