Energy End-Use : Industry

The industrial sector accounts for about 30% of the global final energy use and accounts for about 115 EJ of final energy use in 2005. 1Cement, iron and steel, chemicals, pulp and paper and aluminum are key energy intensive materials that account for more than half the global industrial use. There is a shift in the primary materials production with developing countries accounting for the majority of the production capacity. China and India have high growth rates in the production of energy intensive materials like cement, fertilizers and steel (12–20%/yr). In different economies materials demand is seen to grow initially with income and then stabilize. For instance in industrialized countries consumption of steel seems to saturate at about 500 kg/capita and 400–500 kg/capita for cement. The aggregate energy intensities in the industrial sectors in different countries have shown steady declines – due to an improvement in energy efficiency and a change in the structure of the industrial output. As an example for the EU-27 the final energy use by industry has remained almost constant (13.4 EJ) at 1990 levels. Structural changes in the economies explain 30% of the reduction in energy intensity with the remaining due to energy efficiency improvements. In different industrial sectors adopting the best achievable technology can result in a saving of 10–30% below the current average. An analysis of cost cutting measures for motors and steam systems in 2005 indicates energy savings potentials of 2.2 EJ for motors and 3.3 EJ for steam. The payback period for these measures range from less than 9 months to 4 years. A systematic analysis of materials and energy flows indicates significant potential for process integration, heat pumps and cogeneration for example savings of 30% are seen in kraft, sulfite, dairy, chocolate, ammonia, and vinyl chloride. An exergy analysis (second law of thermodynamics) reveals that the overall global industry efficiency is only 30%. It is clear that there are major energy efficiency improvements possible through research and development (R&D) in next generation processes. A comparison of energy management policies in different countries and a summary of country experiences, program impacts for Brazil, China, India, South Africa shows the features of successful policies. Energy management International Organization for Standardization (ISO) standards are likely to be effective in facilitating industrial end use efficiency. The effective use of demand side management can be facilitated by combination of mandated measures and market strategies. A frozen efficiency scenario is constructed for industry in 2030. This implies a demand of final energy of 225 EJ in 2030. This involves an increase of the industrial energy output (in terms of Manufacturing Value Added (MVA)) by 95% over its 2005 value. Due to normal efficiency improvements the Business as Usual scenario results in a final energy demand of 175 EJ. The savings possibilities in motors and steam systems, process improvements, pinch, heat pumping and cogeneration have been computed for the existing industrial stock and for the new industries. An energy efficient scenario for 2030 has been constructed with a 95% increase in the industrial output with only a 17% increase in the final energy demand (total final energy demand for industry (135 EJ)). The total direct and indirect carbon dioxide emissions from the industry sector in 2005 is about 9.9 GtCO 2 . Assuming a constant carbon intensity of energy use, the business as usual scenario results in carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions increasing to 17.8 GtCO 2 annually in 2030. In the energy efficient scenario this reduces to 11.6 GtCO 2 . Renewables account for 9% of the final energy of industry (10 EJ in 2005). If an aggressive renewables strategy resulting in an increase in renewable energy supply to 23% in 2030 is targeted (23 EJ), it is possible to have a scenario of constant greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by the industrial sector (at 2005 levels) with a 95% increase in the industrial output. Several interventions will be required to achieve the energy efficient or constant GHG emission scenario. For the existing industry measures include developing capacity for systems assessment for motors, steam systems and pinch analysis, sharing and documentation of best practices, benchmarks and roadmaps for different industry segments, access to low interest finance etc. A new energy management standard has been developed by ISO for energy management in companies. Its adoption will enable industries to systematically monitor and track energy efficiency improvements. In order to level the playing field for energy efficiency a paradigm shift is required with the focus on energy services not on energy supply per se. This requires a re-orientation of energy supply, distribution companies and energy equipment manufacturing companies. Planning for next generation processes and systems needs the development of long term research agenda and strategic collaborations between industry, academic and research institutions and governments

Simplification and analysis of a model of social interaction in voting

A recently proposed model of social interaction in voting is investigated by simplifying it down into a version that is more analytically tractable and which allows a mathematical analysis to be performed. This analysis clarifies the interplay of the different elements present in the system – social influence, heterogeneity and noise – and leads to a better understanding of its properties. The origin of a regime of bistability is identified. The insight gained in this way gives further intuition into the behaviour of the original model

Energy End-Use : Industry

The industrial sector accounts for about 30% of the global final energy use and accounts for about 115 EJ of final energy use in 2005. 1Cement, iron and steel, chemicals, pulp and paper and aluminum are key energy intensive materials that account for more than half the global industrial use. There is a shift in the primary materials production with developing countries accounting for the majority of the production capacity. China and India have high growth rates in the production of energy intensive materials like cement, fertilizers and steel (12–20%/yr). In different economies materials demand is seen to grow initially with income and then stabilize. For instance in industrialized countries consumption of steel seems to saturate at about 500 kg/capita and 400–500 kg/capita for cement. The aggregate energy intensities in the industrial sectors in different countries have shown steady declines – due to an improvement in energy efficiency and a change in the structure of the industrial output. As an example for the EU-27 the final energy use by industry has remained almost constant (13.4 EJ) at 1990 levels. Structural changes in the economies explain 30% of the reduction in energy intensity with the remaining due to energy efficiency improvements. In different industrial sectors adopting the best achievable technology can result in a saving of 10–30% below the current average. An analysis of cost cutting measures for motors and steam systems in 2005 indicates energy savings potentials of 2.2 EJ for motors and 3.3 EJ for steam. The payback period for these measures range from less than 9 months to 4 years. A systematic analysis of materials and energy flows indicates significant potential for process integration, heat pumps and cogeneration for example savings of 30% are seen in kraft, sulfite, dairy, chocolate, ammonia, and vinyl chloride. An exergy analysis (second law of thermodynamics) reveals that the overall global industry efficiency is only 30%. It is clear that there are major energy efficiency improvements possible through research and development (R&D) in next generation processes. A comparison of energy management policies in different countries and a summary of country experiences, program impacts for Brazil, China, India, South Africa shows the features of successful policies. Energy management International Organization for Standardization (ISO) standards are likely to be effective in facilitating industrial end use efficiency. The effective use of demand side management can be facilitated by combination of mandated measures and market strategies. A frozen efficiency scenario is constructed for industry in 2030. This implies a demand of final energy of 225 EJ in 2030. This involves an increase of the industrial energy output (in terms of Manufacturing Value Added (MVA)) by 95% over its 2005 value. Due to normal efficiency improvements the Business as Usual scenario results in a final energy demand of 175 EJ. The savings possibilities in motors and steam systems, process improvements, pinch, heat pumping and cogeneration have been computed for the existing industrial stock and for the new industries. An energy efficient scenario for 2030 has been constructed with a 95% increase in the industrial output with only a 17% increase in the final energy demand (total final energy demand for industry (135 EJ)). The total direct and indirect carbon dioxide emissions from the industry sector in 2005 is about 9.9 GtCO 2 . Assuming a constant carbon intensity of energy use, the business as usual scenario results in carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions increasing to 17.8 GtCO 2 annually in 2030. In the energy efficient scenario this reduces to 11.6 GtCO 2 . Renewables account for 9% of the final energy of industry (10 EJ in 2005). If an aggressive renewables strategy resulting in an increase in renewable energy supply to 23% in 2030 is targeted (23 EJ), it is possible to have a scenario of constant greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by the industrial sector (at 2005 levels) with a 95% increase in the industrial output. Several interventions will be required to achieve the energy efficient or constant GHG emission scenario. For the existing industry measures include developing capacity for systems assessment for motors, steam systems and pinch analysis, sharing and documentation of best practices, benchmarks and roadmaps for different industry segments, access to low interest finance etc. A new energy management standard has been developed by ISO for energy management in companies. Its adoption will enable industries to systematically monitor and track energy efficiency improvements. In order to level the playing field for energy efficiency a paradigm shift is required with the focus on energy services not on energy supply per se. This requires a re-orientation of energy supply, distribution companies and energy equipment manufacturing companies. Planning for next generation processes and systems needs the development of long term research agenda and strategic collaborations between industry, academic and research institutions and governments

Regional Assessment of N saturation using foliar and root d15N

N saturation induced by atmospheric N deposition can have serious consequences for forest health in many regions. In order to evaluate whether foliar may be a robust, regional-scale measure of the onset of N saturation in forest ecosystems, we assembled a large dataset on atmospheric N deposition, foliar and root and N concentration, soil C:N, mineralization and nitrification. The dataset included sites in northeastern North America, Colorado, Alaska, southern Chile and Europe. Local drivers of N cycling (net nitrification and mineralization, and forest floor and soil C:N) were more closely coupled with foliar than the regional driver of N deposition. Foliar increased non-linearly with nitrification:mineralization ratio and decreased with forest floor C:N. Foliar was more strongly related to nitrification rates than was foliar N concentration, but concentration was more strongly correlated with N deposition. Root was more tightly coupled to forest floor properties than was foliar . We observed a pattern of decreasing foliar values across the following species: American beech>yellow birch>sugar maple. Other factors that affected foliar included species composition and climate. Relationships between foliar and soil variables were stronger when analyzed on a species by species basis than when many species were lumped. European sites showed distinct patterns of lower foliar , due to the importance of ammonium deposition in this region. Our results suggest that examining values of foliage may improve understanding of how forests respond to the cascading effects of N deposition