Association between suicidal ideation and suicide: Meta-analyses of odds ratios, sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value

Background The expression of suicidal ideation is considered to be an important warning sign for suicide. However, the predictive properties of suicidal ideation as a test of later suicide are unclear.Aims To assess the strength of the association between suicidal ideation and later suicide measured by odds ratio (OR), sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value (PPV).Method We located English-language studies indexed in PubMed that reported the expression or non-expression of suicidal ideation among people who later died by suicide or did not. A random effects meta-analysis was used to assess the pooled OR, sensitivity, specificity and PPV of suicidal ideation for later suicide among groups of people from psychiatric and non-psychiatric settings.Results There was a moderately strong but highly heterogeneous association between suicidal ideation and later suicide (n = 71, OR = 3.41, 95% CI 2.59-4.49, 95% prediction interval 0.42-28.1, I2 = 89.4, Q-value = 661, d.f.(Q) = 70, P ≤0.001). Studies conducted in primary care and other non-psychiatric settings had similar pooled odds to studies of current and former psychiatric patients (OR = 3.86 v. OR = 3.23, P = 0.7). The pooled sensitivity of suicidal ideation for later suicide was 41% (95% CI 35-48) and the pooled specificity was 86% (95% CI 76-92), with high between-study heterogeneity. Studies of suicidal ideation expressed by current and former psychiatric patients had a significantly higher pooled sensitivity (46% v. 22%) and lower pooled specificity (81% v. 96%) than studies conducted in non-psychiatric settings. The PPV among non-psychiatric cohorts (0.3%, 95% CI 0.1%-0.5%) was significantly lower (Q-value = 35.6, P < 0.001) than among psychiatric samples (3.9%, 95% CI 2.2-6.6).Conclusions Estimates of the extent of the association between suicidal ideation and later suicide are limited by unexplained between-study heterogeneity. The utility of suicidal ideation as a test for later suicide is limited by a modest sensitivity and low PPV.Declaration interest M.M.L. and C.J.R. have provided expert evidence in civil, criminal and coronial matters. I.B.H. has been a Commissioner in Australia's National Mental Health Commission since 2012. He is the Co-Director, Health and Policy at the Brain and Mind Centre (BMC) University of Sydney. The BMC operates an early-intervention youth services at Camperdown under contract to Headspace. I.B.H. has previously led community-based and pharmaceutical industry-supported (Wyeth, Eli Lily, Servier, Pfizer, AstraZeneca) projects focused on the identification and better management of anxiety and depression. He is a Board Member of Psychosis Australia Trust and a member of Veterans Mental Health Clinical Reference group. He was a member of the Medical Advisory Panel for Medibank Private until October 2017. He is the Chief Scientific Advisor to, and an equity shareholder in, InnoWell. InnoWell has been formed by the University of Sydney and PricewaterhouseCoopers to administer the $30 M Australian Government Funded Project Synergy. Project Synergy is a 3-year programme for the transformation of mental health services through the use of innovative technologies

A comparison of liquid and solid culture for determining relapse and durable cure in phase III TB trials for new regimens

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis kills more people than any other infectious disease, and new regimens are essential. The primary endpoint for confirmatory phase III trials for new regimens is a composite outcome that includes bacteriological treatment failure and relapse. Culture methodology is critical to the primary trial outcome. Patients in clinical trials can have positive cultures after treatment ends that may not necessarily indicate relapse, which was ascribed previously to laboratory cross-contamination or breakdown of old lesions. Löwenstein-Jensen (LJ) medium was the previous standard in clinical trials, but almost all current and future trials will use the Mycobacteria Growth Indicator Tube (MGIT) system due to its simplicity and consistency of use, which will affect phase III trial results. LJ was used for the definition of the primary endpoint in the REMoxTB trial, but every culture was also inoculated in parallel into the MGIT system. The data from this trial, therefore, provide a unique opportunity to investigate and compare the incidence of false 'isolated positives' in liquid and solid media and their potential impact on the primary efficacy results. METHODS: All post-treatment positive cultures were reviewed in the REMoxTB clinical trial. Logistic regression models were used to model the incidence of isolated positive cultures on MGIT and LJ. RESULTS: A total of 12,209 sputum samples were available from 1652 patients; cultures were more often positive on MGIT than LJ. In 1322 patients with a favourable trial outcome, 126 (9.5%) had cultures that were positive in MGIT compared to 34 (2.6%) patients with positive cultures on LJ. Among patients with a favourable outcome, the incidence of isolated positives on MGIT differed by study laboratory (p < 0.0001) with 21.9% of these coming from one laboratory investigating only 4.9% of patients. No other baseline factors predicted isolated positives on MGIT after adjusting for laboratory. There was evidence of clustering of isolated positive cultures in some patients even after adjusting for laboratory, p < 0.0001. The incidence of isolated positives on MGIT did not differ by treatment arm (p = 0.845, unadjusted). Compared to negative MGIT cultures, positive MGIT cultures were more likely to be associated with higher grade TB symptoms reported within 7 days either side of sputum collection in patients with an unfavourable primary outcome (p < 0.0001) but not in patients with a favourable outcome (p = 0.481). CONCLUSIONS: Laboratory cross-contamination was a likely cause of isolated positive MGIT cultures which were clustered in some laboratories. Certain patients had repeated positive MGIT cultures that did not meet the definition of a relapse. This pattern was too common to be explained by cross-contamination only, suggesting that host factors were also responsible. We conclude that MGIT can replace LJ in phase III TB trials, but there are implications for the definition of the primary outcome and patient management in trials in such settings. Most importantly, the methodologies differ in the incidence of isolated positives and in their capacity for capturing non-tuberculosis mycobacteria. It emphasises the importance of effective medical monitoring after treatment ends and consideration of clinical signs and symptoms for determining treatment failure and relapse

Culture-Free Enumeration of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Mouse Tissues Using the Molecular Bacterial Load Assay for Preclinical Drug Development

BACKGROUND: The turnaround times for phenotypic tests used to monitor the bacterial load of Mycobacterium tuberculosis, in both clinical and preclinical studies, are delayed by the organism’s slow growth in culture media. The existence of differentially culturable populations of M.tuberculosis may result in an underestimate of the true number. Moreover, culture methods are susceptible to contamination resulting in loss of critical data points. Objectives: We report the adaptation of our robust, culture-free assay utilising 16S ribosomal RNA, developed for sputum, to enumerate the number of bacteria present in animal tissues as a tool to improve the read-outs in preclinical drug efficacy studies. METHODS: Initial assay adaptation was performed using naïve mouse lungs spiked with known quantities of M. tuberculosis and an internal RNA control. Tissues were homogenised, total RNA extracted, and enumeration performed using RT-qPCR. We then evaluated the utility of the assay, in comparison to bacterial counts estimated using growth assays on solid and liquid media, to accurately inform bacterial load in tissues from M. tuberculosis-infected mice before and during treatment with a panel of drug combinations. RESULTS: When tested on lung tissues derived from infected mice, the MBL assay produced comparable results to the bacterial counts in solid culture (colony forming units: CFU). Notably, under specific drug treatments, the MBL assay was able to detect a significantly higher number of M. tuberculosis compared to CFU, likely indicating the presence of bacteria that were unable to produce colonies in solid-based culture. Additionally, growth recovery in liquid media using the most probable number (MPN) assay was able to account for the discrepancy between the MBL assay and CFU number, suggesting that the MBL assay detects differentially culturable sub-populations of M. tuberculosis. CONCLUSIONS: The MBL assay can enumerate the bacterial load in animal tissues in real time without the need to wait for extended periods for cultures to grow. The readout correlates well with CFUs. Importantly, we have shown that the MBL is able to measure specific populations of bacteria not cultured on solid agar. The adaptation of this assay for preclinical studies has the potential to decrease the readout time of data acquisition from animal experiments and could represent a valuable tool for tuberculosis drug discovery and development

The widespread use of topical antimicrobials enriches for resistance in Staphylococcus aureus isolated from patients with atopic dermatitis.

BACKGROUND: Carriage rates of Staphylococcus aureus on affected skin in atopic dermatitis (AD) are approximately 70%. Increasing disease severity during flares and overall disease severity correlate with increased burden of S. aureus. Treatment in AD therefore often targets S. aureus with topical and systemic antimicrobials. OBJECTIVES: To determine whether antimicrobial sensitivities and genetic determinants of resistance differed in S. aureus isolates from the skin of children with AD and healthy child nasal carriers. METHODS: In this case-control study, we compared S. aureus isolates from children with AD (n = 50) attending a hospital dermatology department against nasal carriage isolates from children without skin disease (n = 49) attending a hospital emergency department for noninfective conditions. Using whole genome sequencing we generated a phylogenetic framework for the isolates based on variation in the core genome, then compared antimicrobial resistance phenotypes and genotypes between disease groups. RESULTS: Staphylococcus aureus from cases and controls had on average similar numbers of phenotypic resistances per isolate. Case isolates differed in their resistance patterns, with fusidic acid resistance (FusR ) being significantly more frequent in AD (P = 0·009). The genetic basis of FusR also differentiated the populations, with chromosomal mutations in fusA predominating in AD (P = 0·049). Analysis revealed that FusR evolved multiple times and via multiple mechanism in the population. Carriage of plasmid-derived qac genes, which have been associated with reduced susceptibility to antiseptics, was eight times more frequent in AD (P = 0·016). CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that strong selective pressure drives the emergence and maintenance of specific resistances in AD

Improving the Potency of N-Aryl-2,5-dimethylpyrroles against Multidrug-Resistant and Intracellular Mycobacteria

A series of N-phenyl-2,5-dimethylpyrrole derivatives, designed as hybrids of the antitubercular agents BM212 and SQ109, have been synthesized and evaluated against susceptible and drug-resistant mycobacteria strains. Compound 5d, bearing a cyclohexylmethylene side chain, showed high potency against M. tuberculosis including MDR-TB strains at submicromolar concentrations. The new compound shows bacteriostatic activity and low toxicity and proved to be effective against intracellular mycobacteria too, showing an activity profile similar to isoniazid

Spot sputum samples are at least as good as early morning samples for identifying Mycobacterium tuberculosis

Background The use of early morning sputum samples (EMS) to diagnose tuberculosis (TB) can result in treatment delay given the need for the patient to return to the clinic with the EMS, increasing the chance of patients being lost during their diagnostic workup. However, there is little evidence to support the superiority of EMS over spot sputum samples. In this new analysis of the REMoxTB study, we compare the diagnostic accuracy of EMS with spot samples for identifying Mycobacterium tuberculosis pre- and post-treatment. Methods Patients who were smear positive at screening were enrolled into the study. Paired sputum samples (one EMS and one spot) were collected at each trial visit pre- and post-treatment. Microscopy and culture on solid LJ and liquid MGIT media were performed on all samples; those missing corresponding paired results were excluded from the analyses. Results Data from 1115 pre- and 2995 post-treatment paired samples from 1931 patients enrolled in the REMoxTB study were analysed. Patients were recruited from South Africa (47%), East Africa (21%), India (20%), Asia (11%), and North America (1%); 70% were male, median age 31 years (IQR 24–41), 139 (7%) co-infected with HIV with a median CD4 cell count of 399 cells/μL (IQR 318–535). Pre-treatment spot samples had a higher yield of positive Ziehl–Neelsen smears (98% vs. 97%, P = 0.02) and LJ cultures (87% vs. 82%, P = 0.006) than EMS, but there was no difference for positivity by MGIT (93% vs. 95%, P = 0.18). Contaminated and false-positive MGIT were found more often with EMS rather than spot samples. Surprisingly, pre-treatment EMS had a higher smear grading and shorter time-to-positivity, by 1 day, than spot samples in MGIT culture (4.5 vs. 5.5 days, P < 0.001). There were no differences in time to positivity in pre-treatment LJ culture, or in post-treatment MGIT or LJ cultures. Comparing EMS and spot samples in those with unfavourable outcomes, there were no differences in smear or culture results, and positive results were not detected earlier in Kaplan–Meier analyses in either EMS or spot samples. Conclusions Our data do not support the hypothesis that EMS samples are superior to spot sputum samples in a clinical trial of patients with smear positive pulmonary TB. Observed small differences in mycobacterial burden are of uncertain significance and EMS samples do not detect post-treatment positives any sooner than spot samples

Management and control of tuberculosis control in socially complex groups: a research programme including three RCTs

Background: Socially complex groups, including people experiencing homelessness, prisoners and drug users, have very high levels of tuberculosis, often complicated by late diagnosis and difficulty in adhering to treatment. / Objective: To assess a series of interventions to improve tuberculosis control in socially complex groups. / Design: A series of observational surveys, evaluations and trials of interventions. / Setting: The pan-London Find&Treat service, which supports tuberculosis screening and case management in socially complex groups across London. / Participants: Socially complex groups with tuberculosis or at risk of tuberculosis, including people experiencing homelessness, prisoners, drug users and those at high risk of poor adherence to tuberculosis treatment. Interventions and main outcome measures We screened 491 people in homeless hostels and 511 people in prison for latent tuberculosis infection, human immunodeficiency virus, hepatitis B and hepatitis C. We evaluated an NHS-led prison radiographic screening programme. We conducted a cluster randomised controlled trial (2348 eligible people experiencing homelessness in 46 hostels) of the effectiveness of peer educators (22 hostels) compared with NHS staff (24 hostels) at encouraging the uptake of mobile radiographic screening. We initiated a trial of the use of point-of-care polymerase chain reaction diagnostics to rapidly confirm tuberculosis alongside mobile radiographic screening. We undertook a randomised controlled trial to improve treatment adherence, comparing face-to-face, directly observed treatment with video-observed treatment using a smartphone application. The primary outcome was completion of ≥ 80% of scheduled treatment observations over the first 2 months following enrolment. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of latent tuberculosis screening alongside radiographic screening of people experiencing homelessness. The costs of video-observed treatment and directly observed treatment were compared. / Results: In the homeless hostels, 16.5% of people experiencing homelessness had latent tuberculosis infection, 1.4% had current hepatitis B infection, 10.4% had hepatitis C infection and 1.0% had human immunodeficiency virus infection. When a quality-adjusted life-year is valued at £30,000, the latent tuberculosis screening of people experiencing homelessness was cost-effective provided treatment uptake was ≥ 25% (for a £20,000 quality-adjusted life-year threshold, treatment uptake would need to be > 50%). In prison, 12.6% of prisoners had latent tuberculosis infection, 1.9% had current hepatitis B infection, 4.2% had hepatitis C infection and 0.0% had human immunodeficiency virus infection. In both settings, levels of latent tuberculosis infection and blood-borne viruses were higher among injecting drug users. A total of 1484 prisoners were screened using chest radiography over a total of 112 screening days (new prisoner screening coverage was 43%). Twenty-nine radiographs were reported as potentially indicating tuberculosis. One prisoner began, and completed, antituberculosis treatment in prison. In the cluster randomised controlled trial of peer educators to increase screening uptake, the median uptake was 45% in the control arm and 40% in the intervention arm (adjusted risk ratio 0.98, 95% confidence interval 0.80 to 1.20). A rapid diagnostic service was established on the mobile radiographic unit but the trial of rapid diagnostics was abandoned because of recruitment and follow-up difficulties. We randomly assigned 112 patients to video-observed treatment and 114 patients to directly observed treatment. Fifty-eight per cent of those recruited had a history of homelessness, addiction, imprisonment or severe mental health problems. Seventy-eight (70%) of 112 patients on video-observed treatment achieved the primary outcome, compared with 35 (31%) of 114 patients on directly observed treatment (adjusted odds ratio 5.48, 95% confidence interval 3.10 to 9.68; p < 0.0001). Video-observed treatment was superior to directly observed treatment in all demographic and social risk factor subgroups. The cost for 6 months of treatment observation was £1645 for daily video-observed treatment, £3420 for directly observed treatment three times per week and £5700 for directly observed treatment five times per week. / Limitations: Recruitment was lower than anticipated for most of the studies. The peer advocate study may have been contaminated by the fact that the service was already using peer educators to support its work. / Conclusions: There are very high levels of latent tuberculosis infection among prisoners, people experiencing homelessness and drug users. Screening for latent infection in people experiencing homelessness alongside mobile radiographic screening would be cost-effective, providing the uptake of treatment was 25–50%. Despite ring-fenced funding, the NHS was unable to establish static radiographic screening programmes. Although we found no evidence that peer educators were more effective than health-care workers in encouraging the uptake of mobile radiographic screening, there may be wider benefits of including peer educators as part of the Find&Treat team. Utilising polymerase chain reaction-based rapid diagnostic testing on a mobile radiographic unit is feasible. Smartphone-enabled video-observed treatment is more effective and cheaper than directly observed treatment for ensuring that treatment is observed. / Future work: Trials of video-observed treatment in high-incidence settings are needed. / Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN17270334 and ISRCTN26184967. / Funding: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Programme Grants for Applied Research programme and will be published in full in Programme Grants for Applied Research; Vol. 8, No. 9. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information

Detecting Distributed Denial of Service Attacks in Neighbour Discovery Protocol Using Machine Learning Algorithm Based on Streams Representation

© 2018, Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature. The main protocol of the Internet protocol version 6 suites is the neighbour discovery protocol, which is geared towards substitution of address resolution protocol, router discovery, and function redirection in Internet protocol version 4. Internet protocol version 6 nodes employ neighbour discovery protocol to detect linked hosts and routers in Internet protocol version 6 network without the dependence on dynamic host configuration protocol server, which has earned the neighbour discovery protocol the title of the stateless protocol. The authentication process of the neighbour discovery protocol exhibits weaknesses that make this protocol vulnerable to attacks. Denial of service attacks can be triggered by a malicious host through the introduction of spoofed addresses in neighbour discovery protocol messages. Internet version 6 protocols are not well supported by Network Intrusion Detection System as is the case with Internet Protocol version 4 protocols. Several data mining techniques have been introduced to improve the classification mechanism of Intrusion detection system. In addition, extensive researches indicated that there is no Intrusion Detection system for Internet Protocol version 6 using advanced machine-learning techniques toward distributed denial of service attacks. This paper aims to detect Distributed Denial of Service attacks of the Neighbour Discovery protocol using machine-learning techniques, due to the severity of the attacks and the importance of Neighbour Discovery protocol in Internet Protocol version 6. Decision tree algorithm and Random Forest Algorithm showed high accuracy results in comparison to the other benchmarked algorithms