The severity of pandemic H1N1 influenza in the United States, from April to July 2009: A Bayesian analysis

Background: Accurate measures of the severity of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza (pH1N1) are needed to assess the likely impact of an anticipated resurgence in the autumn in the Northern Hemisphere. Severity has been difficult to measure because jurisdictions with large numbers of deaths and other severe outcomes have had too many cases to assess the total number with confidence. Also, detection of severe cases may be more likely, resulting in overestimation of the severity of an average case. We sought to estimate the probabilities that symptomatic infection would lead to hospitalization, ICU admission, and death by combining data from multiple sources. Methods and Findings: We used complementary data from two US cities: Milwaukee attempted to identify cases of medically attended infection whether or not they required hospitalization, while New York City focused on the identification of hospitalizations, intensive care admission or mechanical ventilation (hereafter, ICU), and deaths. New York data were used to estimate numerators for ICU and death, and two sources of data - medically attended cases in Milwaukee or self-reported influenza-like illness (ILI) in New York - were used to estimate ratios of symptomatic cases to hospitalizations. Combining these data with estimates of the fraction detected for each level of severity, we estimated the proportion of symptomatic patients who died (symptomatic case-fatality ratio, sCFR), required ICU (sCIR), and required hospitalization (sCHR), overall and by age category. Evidence, prior information, and associated uncertainty were analyzed in a Bayesian evidence synthesis framework. Using medically attended cases and estimates of the proportion of symptomatic cases medically attended, we estimated an sCFR of 0.048% (95% credible interval [CI] 0.026%-0.096%), sCIR of 0.239% (0.134%-0.458%), and sCHR of 1.44% (0.83%-2.64%). Using self-reported ILI, we obtained estimates approximately 7-96lower. sCFR and sCIR appear to be highest in persons aged 18 y and older, and lowest in children aged 5-17 y. sCHR appears to be lowest in persons aged 5-17; our data were too sparse to allow us to determine the group in which it was the highest. Conclusions: These estimates suggest that an autumn-winter pandemic wave of pH1N1 with comparable severity per case could lead to a number of deaths in the range from considerably below that associated with seasonal influenza to slightly higher, but with the greatest impact in children aged 0-4 and adults 18-64. These estimates of impact depend on assumptions about total incidence of infection and would be larger if incidence of symptomatic infection were higher or shifted toward adults, if viral virulence increased, or if suboptimal treatment resulted from stress on the health care system; numbers would decrease if the total proportion of the population symptomatically infected were lower than assumed.published_or_final_versio

Tai Chi for osteopenic women: design and rationale of a pragmatic randomized controlled trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Post-menopausal osteopenic women are at increased risk for skeletal fractures. Current osteopenia treatment guidelines include exercise, however, optimal exercise regimens for attenuating bone mineral density (BMD) loss, or for addressing other fracture-related risk factors (e.g. poor balance, decreased muscle strength) are not well-defined. Tai Chi is an increasingly popular weight bearing mind-body exercise that has been reported to positively impact BMD dynamics and improve postural control, however, current evidence is inconclusive. This study will determine the effectiveness of Tai Chi in reducing rates of bone turnover in post-menopausal osteopenic women, compared with standard care, and will preliminarily explore biomechanical processes that might inform how Tai Chi impacts BMD and associated fracture risks.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>A total of 86 post-menopausal women, aged 45-70y, T-score of the hip and/or spine -1.0 and -2.5, have been recruited from primary care clinics of a large healthcare system based in Boston. They have been randomized to a group-based 9-month Tai Chi program plus standard care or to standard care only. A unique aspect of this trial is its pragmatic design, which allows participants randomized to Tai Chi to choose from a pre-screened list of community-based Tai Chi programs. Interviewers masked to participants' treatment group assess outcomes at baseline and 3 and 9 months after randomization. Primary outcomes are serum markers of bone resorption (C-terminal cross linking telopeptide of type I collagen), bone formation (osteocalcin), and BMD of the lumbar spine and proximal femur (dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry). Secondary outcomes include health-related quality-of-life, exercise behavior, and psychological well-being. In addition, kinetic and kinematic characterization of gait, standing, and rising from a chair are assessed in subset of participants (n = 16) to explore the feasibility of modeling skeletal mechanical loads and postural control as mediators of fracture risk.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Results of this study will provide preliminary evidence regarding the value of Tai Chi as an intervention for decreasing fracture risk in osteopenic women. They will also inform the feasibility, value and potential limitations related to the use of pragmatic designs for the study of Tai Chi and related mind-body exercise. If the results are positive, this will help focus future, more in-depth, research on the most promising potential mechanisms of action identified by this study.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>This trial is registered in Clinical Trials.gov, with the ID number of NCT01039012.</p

A dual role for the N-terminal domain of the IL-3 receptor in cell signalling

The interleukin-3 (IL-3) receptor is a cell-surface heterodimer that links the haemopoietic, vascular and immune systems and is overexpressed in acute and chronic myeloid leukaemia progenitor cells. It belongs to the type I cytokine receptor family in which the α-subunits consist of two fibronectin III-like domains that bind cytokine, and a third, evolutionarily unrelated and topologically conserved, N-terminal domain (NTD) with unknown function. Here we show by crystallography that, while the NTD of IL3Rα is highly mobile in the presence of IL-3, it becomes surprisingly rigid in the presence of IL-3 K116W. Mutagenesis, biochemical and functional studies show that the NTD of IL3Rα regulates IL-3 binding and signalling and reveal an unexpected role in preventing spontaneous receptor dimerisation. Our work identifies a dual role for the NTD in this cytokine receptor family, protecting against inappropriate signalling and dynamically regulating cytokine receptor binding and function.Sophie E. Broughton, Timothy R. Hercus, Tracy L. Nero, Winnie L. Kan ... Timothy P. Hughes, Angel F. Lopez ... et al

Validação e confiabilidade de um instrumento de avaliação de feridas Validación y confiabilidad de un instrumento de evaluación de heridas Validity and reliability of an instrument for wound evaluation

OBJETIVO: este estudo teve como objetivos validar e verificar a confiabilidade de um instrumento elaborado para a avaliação de feridas. MÉTODOS: o estudo foi desenvolvido num hospital universitário. A validade do instrumento foi apreciada por juízes e para avaliar a confiabilidade foi realizada a análise de concordância entre observadores em relação aos dados da ferida. RESULTADOS: indicam que os juízes compreenderam a maioria dos itens do instrumento com 71% de respostas positivas e os níveis de concordância entre observadores foram regulares e excelentes. CONCLUSÃO: sugere-se a aplicação do instrumento pelos profissionais, pois acredita-se na sua praticidade.<br>OBJETIVO: en este estudio se tuvo como objetivo validar y verificar la confiabilidad de un instrumento elaborado para la evaluación de heridas. MÉTODOS: el estudio fue desarrollado en un hospital universitario. La validación del instrumento fue realizada por jueces y para evaluar la confiabilidad se efectuó el análisis de concordancia entre observadores en relación a los datos de la herida. RESULTADOS: indican que los jueces comprendieron la mayoría de los items del instrumento con el 71% de respuestas positivas y, los niveles de concordancia entre observadores fueron regulares y excelentes. CONCLUSIÓN: se sugiere la aplicación del instrumento por los profesionales, pues se cree en su practicidad.<br>OBJECTIVE: to determine the reliability and validity of a new instrument for wound evaluation. METHODS: this methodological study was conducted in a Brazilian university hospital. Data analysis consisted of content validity by a panel of judges and equivalency among observers. RESULTS: the new instrument had a good validity; the level of agreement among the judges was 71%. And, the interrater reliability and the agreement between observers were regular to excellent. CONCLUSION: this instrument has the potential to be used by nurses in clinical practice