Statistical challenges in assessing potential efficacy of complex interventions in pilot or feasibility studies

Early phase trials of complex interventions currently focus on assessing the feasibility of a large RCT and on conducting pilot work. Assessing the efficacy of the proposed intervention is generally discouraged, due to concerns of underpowered hypothesis testing. In contrast, early assessment of efficacy is common for drug therapies, where phase II trials are often used as a screening mechanism to identify promising treatments. In this paper we outline the challenges encountered in extending ideas developed in the phase II drug trial literature to the complex intervention setting. The prevalence of multiple endpoints and clustering of outcome data are identified as important considerations, having implications for timely and robust determination of optimal trial design parameters. The potential for Bayesian methods to help to identify robust trial designs and optimal decision rules is also explored

Paediatric radiology seen from Africa. Part I: providing diagnostic imaging to a young population

Article approval pendingPaediatric radiology requires dedicated equipment, specific precautions related to ionising radiation, and specialist knowledge. Developing countries face difficulties in providing adequate imaging services for children. In many African countries, children represent an increasing proportion of the population, and additional challenges follow from extreme living conditions, poverty, lack of parental care, and exposure to tuberculosis, HIV, pneumonia, diarrhoea and violent trauma. Imaging plays a critical role in the treatment of these children, but is expensive and difficult to provide. The World Health Organisation initiatives, of which the World Health Imaging System for Radiography (WHIS-RAD) unit is one result, needs to expand into other areas such as the provision of maintenance servicing. New initiatives by groups such as Rotary and the World Health Imaging Alliance to install WHIS-RAD units in developing countries and provide digital solutions, need support. Paediatric radiologists are needed to offer their services for reporting, consultation and quality assurance for free by way of teleradiology. Societies for paediatric radiology are needed to focus on providing a volunteer teleradiology reporting group, information on child safety for basic imaging, guidelines for investigations specific to the disease spectrum, and solutions for optimising imaging in children

Age-Corrected Beta Cell Mass Following Onset of Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus Correlates with Plasma C-Peptide in Humans

The inability to produce insulin endogenously precipitates the clinical symptoms of type 1 diabetes mellitus. However, the dynamic trajectory of beta cell destruction following onset remains unclear. Using model-based inference, the severity of beta cell destruction at onset decreases with age where, on average, a 40% reduction in beta cell mass was sufficient to precipitate clinical symptoms at 20 years of age. While plasma C-peptide provides a surrogate measure of endogenous insulin production post-onset, it is unclear as to whether plasma C-peptide represents changes in beta cell mass or beta cell function. The objective of this paper was to determine the relationship between beta cell mass and endogenous insulin production post-onset.Model-based inference was used to compare direct measures of beta cell mass in 102 patients against contemporary measures of plasma C-peptide obtained from three studies that collectively followed 834 patients post-onset of clinical symptoms. An empirical Bayesian approach was used to establish the level of confidence associated with the model prediction. Age-corrected estimates of beta cell mass that were inferred from a series of landmark pancreatic autopsy studies significantly correlate (p>0.9995) with contemporary measures of plasma C-peptide levels following onset.Given the correlation between beta cell mass and plasma C-peptide following onset, plasma C-peptide may provide a surrogate measure of beta cell mass in humans. The clinical relevance of this study is that therapeutic strategies that provide an increase in plasma C-peptide over the predicted value for an individual may actually improve beta cell mass. The model predictions may establish a standard historical "control" group - a prior in a Bayesian context - for clinical trials

Phenotypic covariance of longevity, immunity and stress resistance in the Caenorhabditis nematodes

Background \ud Ageing, immunity and stresstolerance are inherent characteristics of all organisms. In animals, these traits are regulated, at least in part, by forkhead transcription factors in response to upstream signals from the Insulin/Insulin– like growth factor signalling (IIS) pathway. In the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans, these phenotypes are molecularly linked such that activation of the forkhead transcription factor DAF-16 both extends lifespan and simultaneously increases immunity and stress resistance. It is known that lifespan varies significantly among the Caenorhabditis species but, although DAF-16 signalling is highly conserved, it is unclear whether this phenotypic linkage occurs in other species. Here we investigate this phenotypic covariance by comparing longevity, stress resistance and immunity in four \ud Caenorhabditis species. \ud \ud Methodology/Principal Findings \ud We show using phenotypic analysis of DAF-16 influenced phenotypes that among four closely related Caenorhabditis nematodes, the gonochoristic species (Caenorhabditis remanei and Caenorhabditis brenneri) have diverged \ud significantly with a longer lifespan, improved stress resistance and higher immunity than the hermaphroditic species (C. elegans and Caenorhabditis briggsae). Interestingly, we also observe significant differences in expression levels between the daf-16 homologues in these species using Real-Time PCR, which positively correlate with the observed phenotypes. Finally, we provide additional evidence in support of a role for DAF-16 in regulating phenotypic coupling by using a combination of wildtype isolates, constitutively active daf-16 mutants and bioinformatic analysis. \ud \ud Conclusions \ud The gonochoristic species display a significantly longer lifespan (p < 0.0001)and more robust immune and stress response (p<0.0001, thermal stress; p<0.01, heavy metal stress; p<0.0001, pathogenic stress) than the hermaphroditic species. Our data suggests that divergence in DAF-16 mediated phenotypes may underlie many of the differences observed between these four species of Caenorhabditis nematodes. These findings are further supported by the correlative higher daf-16 expression levels among the gonochoristic species and significantly higher lifespan, immunity and stress tolerance in the constitutively active daf-16 hermaphroditic mutants

Phenotypic covariance of Longevity, Immunity and Stress Resistance in the Caenorhabditis Nematodes

Background: Ageing, immunity and stresstolerance are inherent characteristics of all organisms. In animals, these traits are regulated, at least in part, by forkhead transcription factors in response to upstream signals from the Insulin/Insulin–like growth factor signalling (IIS) pathway. In the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans, these phenotypes are molecularly linked such that activation of the forkhead transcription factor DAF-16 both extends lifespan and simultaneously increases immunity and stress resistance. It is known that lifespan varies significantly among the Caenorhabditis species but, although DAF-16 signalling is highly conserved, it is unclear whether this phenotypic linkage occurs in other species. Here we investigate this phenotypic covariance by comparing longevity, stress resistance and immunity in four Caenorhabditis species. \ud \ud Methodology/Principal Findings: We show using phenotypic analysis of DAF-16 influenced phenotypes that among four closely related Caenorhabditis nematodes, the gonochoristic species (Caenorhabditis remanei and Caenorhabditis brenneri) have diverged significantly with a longer lifespan, improved stress resistance and higher immunity than the hermaphroditic species (C. elegans and Caenorhabditis briggsae). Interestingly, we also observe significant differences in expression levels between the daf-16 homologues in these species using Real-Time PCR, which positively correlate with the observed phenotypes. Finally, we provide additional evidence in support of a role for DAF-16 in regulating phenotypic coupling by using a combination of wildtype isolates, constitutively active daf-16 mutants and bioinformatic analysis. \ud \ud Conclusions: The gonochoristic species display a significantly longer lifespan (p<0.0001) and more robust immune and stress response (p<0.0001, thermal stress; p<0.01, heavy metal stress; p<0.0001, pathogenic stress) than the hermaphroditic species. Our data suggests that divergence in DAF-16 mediated phenotypes may underlie many of the differences observed between these four species of Caenorhabditis nematodes. These findings are further supported by the correlative higher daf-16 expression levels among the gonochoristic species and significantly higher lifespan, immunity and stress tolerance in the constitutively active daf-16 hermaphroditic mutants

Understanding psychiatric institutionalization: a conceptual review

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited

Targeting VIP and PACAP receptor signalling: new therapeutic strategies in multiple sclerosis

MS (multiple sclerosis) is a chronic autoimmune and neurodegenerative pathology of the CNS (central nervous system) affecting approx. 2.5 million people worldwide. Current and emerging DMDs (disease-modifying drugs) predominantly target the immune system. These therapeutic agents slow progression and reduce severity at early stages of MS, but show little activity on the neurodegenerative component of the disease. As the latter determines permanent disability, there is a critical need to pursue alternative modalities. VIP (vasoactive intestinal peptide) and PACAP (pituitary adenylate cyclase-activating peptide) have potent anti-inflammatory and neuroprotective actions, and have shown significant activity in animal inflammatory disease models including the EAE (experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis) MS model. Thus, their receptors have become candidate targets for inflammatory diseases. Here, we will discuss the immunomodulatory and neuroprotective actions of VIP and PACAP and their signalling pathways, and then extensively review the structure–activity relationship data and biophysical interaction studies of these peptides with their cognate receptors

Non-Cardiac Surgery in Developing Countries: Epidemiological Aspects and Economical Opportunities – The Case of Brazil

Background: Worldwide distribution of surgical interventions is unequal. Developed countries account for the majority of surgeries and information about non-cardiac operations in developing countries is scarce. The purpose of our study was to describe the epidemiological data of non-cardiac surgeries performed in Brazil in the last years. Methods and Findings: This is a retrospective cohort study that investigated the time window from 1995 to 2007. We collected information from DATASUS, a national public health system database. The following variables were studied: number of surgeries, in-hospital expenses, blood transfusion related costs, length of stay and case fatality rates. The results were presented as sum, average and percentage. The trend analysis was performed by linear regression model. There were 32,659,513 non-cardiac surgeries performed in Brazil in thirteen years. An increment of 20.42% was observed in the number of surgeries in this period and nowadays nearly 3 million operations are performed annually. The cost of these procedures has increased tremendously in the last years. The increment of surgical cost was almost 200%. The total expenses related to surgical hospitalizations were more than $10 billion in all these years. The yearly cost of surgical procedures to public health system was more than$1.27 billion for all surgical hospitalizations, and in average, U$445.24 per surgical procedure. The total cost of blood transfusion was near$98 million in all years and annually approximately $10 million were spent in perioperative transfusion. The surgical mortality had an increment of 31.11% in the period. Actually, in 2007, the surgical mortality in Brazil was 1.77%. All the variables had a significant increment along the studied period: r square (r(2)) = 0.447 for the number of surgeries (P = 0.012), r(2) = 0.439 for in-hospital expenses (P = 0.014) and r(2) = 0.907 for surgical mortality (P = 0.0055). Conclusion: The volume of surgical procedures has increased substantially in Brazil through the past years. The expenditure related to these procedures and its mortality has also increased as the number of operations. Better planning of public health resource and strategies of investment are needed to supply the crescent demand of surgery in Brazil.Scholarship Program of Cardiology Society of Sao Paulo (SOCESP)Fundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Sao Paulo (FAPESP