Summary of International Transport Energy Modeling Workshop

The NextSTEPS program at ITS-Davis convened a one-day workshop on international transportation energy modeling (iTEM), focused on comparing the frameworks and scenario projections from four major global transport models: -- Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and ITS-Davis, -- MESSAGE-Transport (Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impact) by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), -- Mobility Model (MoMo) by the International Energy Agency, and -- Roadmap by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT). Highlights: -- Projections of "baseline" global transportation energy use rise from 98 EJ in 2010 to 160-250 EJ by 2050. -- There are considerable differences in historical data for some modes, both globally and for individual countries (particularly non-OECD countries). Variability in estimates of transportation activity are in most cases much larger than energy differences. -- Global average vehicle ownership rates are projected to range from 270 to 450 per 1,000 people by 2050 with wide ranges across countries: 700-1,075 for the US by the middle of the century (US is around 700 today), 100-650 for China, and 80-380 for India across four models. -- All models rely mainly on GDP to estimate the future demand for freight and hold the base year modal shares (e.g. truck v. rail) roughly constant through 2050. In reality, future evolution will depend on characteristics of products (e.g. type of commodities) being shipped, technologies available for freight and their efficiencies, and policies and infrastructure. -- Current policy commitments toward EVs, PHEVs and H2FCVs (and thus baseline projections) maybe below the numbers suggested by iTEM models as required for meeting climate targets (e.g., 2 degrees C). -- Improvements in data quality and the representation of car ownership and use across the models were identified as priorities. Modeling transport energy use can either be done by estimating how far people travel and what mode of transportation they choose or by estimating how many vehicles there are and how far each one travels. These are complementary approaches, and in theory they should both lead to the same answer. The former approach, used in "service demand" models, seem more intuitive when one wants to model societal shifts in modes of transportation, either in emerging economies as they develop or in developed economies as they decarbonize; but collecting data on service demand is notoriously difficult. In contrast, vehicle stock models use readily-available vehicle sales data, but are harder to use in future-state, what-if scenarios (particularly in estimating modal shift behaviors) and thus require special attention by experts. The four iTEM models are different in terms of scope (GCAM and MESSAGE cover all sectors of the energy system vs. MoMo and Roadmap which cover transportation only) and model structure (GCAM and MESSAGE rely on internal drivers, particularly the costs of technology and travel, to project future changes whereas MoMo and Roadmap rely on experts' judgments and detailed analysis of technology and policies to drive long-term changes). Yet, owing to these differences, the models are highly complementary and in some cases can be used jointly to answer questions that no single model can tackle on its own. The following summary shares some of the comparisons and findings from the workshop

Expedition Earth and Beyond: Engaging Classrooms in Student-Led Research Using NASA Data, Access to Scientists, and Integrated Educational Strategies

Classroom teachers are challenged with engaging and preparing today s students for the future. Activities are driven by state required skills, education standards, and high-stakes testing. Providing educators with standards-aligned, inquiry-based activities that will help them engage their students in student-led research in the classroom will help them teach required standards, essential skills, and help inspire their students to become motivated learners. The Astromaterials Research and Exploration Science (ARES) Education Program, classroom educators, and ARES scientists at the NASA Johnson Space Center created the Expedition Earth and Beyond education program to help teachers promote student-led research in their classrooms (grades 5-14) by using NASA data, providing access to scientists, and using integrated educational strategies

Assessing the challenges of global long-term mitigation scenarios

The implications of global mitigation to achieve different long-term temperature goals (LTTGs) can be investigated in integrated assessment models (IAMs), which provide a large number of outputs including technology deployment levels, economic costs, carbon prices, annual rates of decarbonisation, degree of global net negative emissions required, as well as utilisation levels for fossil fuel plants. All of these factors can be considered in detail when judging the real-world feasibility of the mitigation scenarios produced by these models. This study presents a model inter-comparison of three widely used IAMs (TIAM, MESSAGE and WITCH) to analyse multiple mitigation scenarios exploring a range of LTTGs and a range of constraints, including delayed mitigation action, limited end-use electrification and delayed deployment of carbon capture technologies. The scenario outputs across the three models are examined and discussed and a matrix of the different factors concerning scenario feasibility is presented

Renormalization Group Analysis of a Quivering String Model of Posture Control

Scaling concepts and renormalization group (RG) methods are applied to a simple linear model of human posture control consisting of a trembling or quivering string subject to damping and restoring forces. The string is driven by uncorrelated white Gaussian noise intended to model the corrections of the physiological control system. We find that adding a weak quadratic nonlinearity to the posture control model opens up a rich and complicated phase space (representing the dynamics) with various non-trivial fixed points and basins of attraction. The transition from diffusive to saturated regimes of the linear model is understood as a crossover phenomenon, and the robustness of the linear model with respect to weak non-linearities is confirmed. Correlations in posture fluctuations are obtained in both the time and space domain. There is an attractive fixed point identified with falling. The scaling of the correlations in the front-back displacement, which can be measured in the laboratory, is predicted for both the large-separation (along the string) and long-time regimes of posture control.Comment: 20 pages, 13 figures, RevTeX, accepted for publication in PR

Validation of a Multivariate Serum Profile for Epithelial Ovarian Cancer Using a Prospective Multi-Site Collection

In previous studies we described the use of a retrospective collection of ovarian cancer and benign disease samples, in combination with a large set of multiplexed immunoassays and a multivariate pattern recognition algorithm, to develop an 11-biomarker classification profile that is predictive for the presence of epithelial ovarian cancer. In this study, customized, Luminex-based multiplexed immunoassay kits were GMP-manufactured and the classification profile was refined from 11 to 8 biomarkers (CA-125, epidermal growth factor receptor, CA 19-9, C-reactive protein, tenascin C, apolipoprotein AI, apolipoprotein CIII, and myoglobin). The customized kits and the 8-biomarker profile were then validated in a double-blinded manner using prospective samples collected from women scheduled for surgery, with a gynecologic oncologist, for suspicion of having ovarian cancer. The performance observed in model development held in validation, demonstrating 81.1% sensitivity (95% CI 72.6 – 87.9%) for invasive epithelial ovarian cancer and 85.4% specificity (95% CI 81.1 – 88.9%) for benign ovarian conditions. The specificity for normal healthy women was 95.6% (95% CI 83.6 – 99.2%). These results have encouraged us to undertake a second validation study arm, currently in progress, to examine the performance of the 8-biomarker profile on the population of women not under the surgical care of a gynecologic oncologist

A novel phosphatidylinositol(3,4,5)P3 pathway in fission yeast

The mammalian tumor suppressor, phosphatase and tensin homologue deleted on chromosome 10 (PTEN), inhibits cell growth and survival by dephosphorylating phosphatidylinositol-(3,4,5)-trisphosphate (PI[3,4,5]P3). We have found a homologue of PTEN in the fission yeast, Schizosaccharomyces pombe (ptn1). This was an unexpected finding because yeast (S. pombe and Saccharomyces cerevisiae) lack the class I phosphoinositide 3-kinases that generate PI(3,4,5)P3 in higher eukaryotes. Indeed, PI(3,4,5)P3 has not been detected in yeast. Surprisingly, upon deletion of ptn1 in S. pombe, PI(3,4,5)P3 became detectable at levels comparable to those in mammalian cells, indicating that a pathway exists for synthesis of this lipid and that the S. pombe ptn1, like mammalian PTEN, suppresses PI(3,4,5)P3 levels. By examining various mutants, we show that synthesis of PI(3,4,5)P3 in S. pombe requires the class III phosphoinositide 3-kinase, vps34p, and the phosphatidylinositol-4-phosphate 5-kinase, its3p, but does not require the phosphatidylinositol-3-phosphate 5-kinase, fab1p. These studies suggest that a pathway for PI(3,4,5)P3 synthesis downstream of a class III phosphoinositide 3-kinase evolved before the appearance of class I phosphoinositide 3-kinases

Length of carotid stenosis predicts peri-procedural stroke or death and restenosis in patients randomized to endovascular treatment or endarterectomy.

BACKGROUND: The anatomy of carotid stenosis may influence the outcome of endovascular treatment or carotid endarterectomy. Whether anatomy favors one treatment over the other in terms of safety or efficacy has not been investigated in randomized trials. METHODS: In 414 patients with mostly symptomatic carotid stenosis randomized to endovascular treatment (angioplasty or stenting; n = 213) or carotid endarterectomy (n = 211) in the Carotid and Vertebral Artery Transluminal Angioplasty Study (CAVATAS), the degree and length of stenosis and plaque surface irregularity were assessed on baseline intraarterial angiography. Outcome measures were stroke or death occurring between randomization and 30 days after treatment, and ipsilateral stroke and restenosis ≥50% during follow-up. RESULTS: Carotid stenosis longer than 0.65 times the common carotid artery diameter was associated with increased risk of peri-procedural stroke or death after both endovascular treatment [odds ratio 2.79 (1.17-6.65), P = 0.02] and carotid endarterectomy [2.43 (1.03-5.73), P = 0.04], and with increased long-term risk of restenosis in endovascular treatment [hazard ratio 1.68 (1.12-2.53), P = 0.01]. The excess in restenosis after endovascular treatment compared with carotid endarterectomy was significantly greater in patients with long stenosis than with short stenosis at baseline (interaction P = 0.003). Results remained significant after multivariate adjustment. No associations were found for degree of stenosis and plaque surface. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing stenosis length is an independent risk factor for peri-procedural stroke or death in endovascular treatment and carotid endarterectomy, without favoring one treatment over the other. However, the excess restenosis rate after endovascular treatment compared with carotid endarterectomy increases with longer stenosis at baseline. Stenosis length merits further investigation in carotid revascularisation trials

The Distribution of the Major Economies' Effort in the Durban Platform Scenarios

The feasibility of achieving climate stabilization consistent with the objective of 2 degrees C is heavily influenced by how the effort in terms of mitigation and economic resources will be distributed among the major economies. This paper provides a multi-model quantification of the mitigation commitment in ten major regions of the world for a diversity of allocation schemes. Our results indicate that a policy with uniform carbon pricing and no transfer payments would yield an uneven distribution of policy costs, which would be lower than the global average for OECD countries, higher for developing economies and the highest, for energy exporters. We show that a resource sharing scheme based on long-term convergence of per capita emissions would not resolve the issue of cost distribution. An effort sharing scheme which equalizes regional policy costs would yield an allocation of allowances comparable with the ones proposed by the Major Economies. Under such a scheme, emissions would peak between 2030 and 2045 for China and remain rather flat for India. In all cases, a very large international carbon market would be required

Randomized clinical trial of percutaneous transluminalangioplasty, supervised exercise and combined treatment forintermittent claudication due to femoropopliteal arterial disease

Background:The aim was to compare percutaneous transluminal angioplasty (PTA), a supervisedexercise programme (SEP) and combined treatment (PTA plus SEP) for intermittent claudication dueto femoropopliteal arterial disease.Methods: Consenting patients with femoropopliteal arterial lesions were randomized to one of threetreatment arms: PTA, SEP, or PTA plus SEP. All patients received optimal medical treatment. Patientswere assessed at baseline and 1, 3, 6 and 12 months after intervention. Clinical (ankle pressures, walkingdistances, symptoms) and quality-of-life (QoL) outcomes (Short Form 36, VascuQol) were analysed.Results: A total of 178 patients (108 men, median age 70 years) were included. All three treatmentgroups demonstrated significant clinical and QoL improvements. One year after PTA (60 patients, 8withdrew), 37 patients (71 per cent) had improved (16 mild, 16 moderate, 5 marked), nine (17 per cent)showed no improvement and six (12 per cent) had deteriorated. After SEP (60 patients, 14 withdrew),32 patients (70 per cent) had improved (19 mild, 10 moderate, 3 marked), six (13 per cent) showed noimprovement and eight (17 per cent) had deteriorated. After PTA plus SEP (58 patients, 11 withdrew),40 patients (85 per cent) had improved (18 mild, 20 moderate, 2 marked), seven (15 per cent) showedno improvement and none had deteriorated. On intergroup analysis, PTA and SEP alone were equallyeffective in improving clinical outcomes, although the effect was short-lived. PTA plus SEP produced amore sustained clinical improvement, but there was no significant QoL advantage.Conclusion: For patients with intermittent claudication due to femoropopliteal disease, PTA, SEP,and PTA plus SEP were all equally effective in improving walking distance and QoL after 12 months.Registration number: NCT00798850 (http://www.clinicaltrials.gov)

Interactions between social learning and technological learning in electric vehicle futures

The transition to electric vehicles is an important strategy for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from passenger cars. Modelling transition pathways helps identify critical drivers and uncertainties. Global integrated assessment models (IAMs) have been used extensively to analyse climate mitigation policy. IAMs emphasise technological change processes but are largely silent on important social and behavioural dimensions to technological transitions. Here, we develop a novel conceptual framing and empirical evidence base on social learning processes relevant for vehicle adoption. We then implement this formulation of social learning in IMAGE, a widely-used global IAM. We apply this new modelling approach to analyse how technological learning and social learning interact to influence electric vehicle transition dynamics. We find that technological learning and social learning processes can be mutually reinforcing. Increased electric vehicle market shares can induce technological learning which reduces technology costs while social learning stimulates diffusion from early adopters to more risk-averse adopter groups. In this way, both types of learning process interact to stimulate each other. In the absence of social learning, however, the perceived risks of electric vehicle adoption among later adopting groups remains prohibitively high. In the absence of technological learning, electric vehicles remain relatively expensive and therefore only for early adopters an attractive choice. This first-of-its-kind model formulation of both social and technological learning is a significant contribution to improving the behavioural realism of global IAMs. Applying this new modelling approach emphasises the importance of market heterogeneity, real-world consumer decision-making, and social dynamics as well as technology parameters, to understand climate mitigation potentials