Predictive validity of the HCR-20 for inpatient aggression:the effect of intellectual disability on accuracy

BackgroundPeople with intellectual disability (ID) account for a large proportion of aggressive incidents in secure and forensic psychiatric services. Although the Historical, Clinical, Risk Management 20 (HCR-20) has good predictive validity in inpatient settings, it does not perform equally in all groups and there is little evidence for its efficacy in those with ID.MethodA pseudo-prospective cohort study of the predictive efficacy of the HCR-20 for those with ID (n = 109) was conducted in a UK secure mental health setting using routinely collected risk data. Performance of the HCR-20 in the ID group was compared with a comparison group of adult inpatients without an ID (n = 504). Analysis controlled for potential covariates including security level, length of stay, gender and diagnosis.ResultsThe HCR-20 total score was a significant predictor of any aggression and of physical aggression for both groups, although the area under the curve values did not reach the threshold for a large effect size. The clinical subscale performed significantly better in those without an ID compared with those with. The ID group had a greater number of relevant historical and risk management items. The clinicians' summary judgment significantly predicted both types of aggressive outcomes in the ID group, but did not predict either in those without an ID.ConclusionsThis study demonstrates that, after controlling for a range of potential covariates, the HCR-20 is a significant predictor of inpatient aggression in people with an ID and performs as well as for a comparison group of mentally disordered individuals without ID. The potency of HCR-20 subscales and items varied between the ID and comparison groups suggesting important target areas for improved prediction and risk management interventions in those with ID

The influence of baryons on the mass distribution of dark matter halos

Using a set of high-resolution N-body/SPH cosmological simulations with identical initial conditions but run with different numerical setups, we investigate the influence of baryonic matter on the mass distribution of dark halos when radiative cooling is NOT included. We compare the concentration parameters of about 400 massive halos with virial mass from $10^{13}$ \Msun to $7.1 \times 10^{14}$ \Msun. We find that the concentration parameters for the total mass and dark matter distributions in non radiative simulations are on average larger by ~3% and 10% than those in a pure dark matter simulation. Our results indicate that the total mass density profile is little affected by a hot gas component in the simulations. After carefully excluding the effects of resolutions and spurious two-body heating between dark matter and gas particles, we conclude that the increase of the dark matter concentration parameters is due to interactions between baryons and dark matter. We demonstrate this with the aid of idealized simulations of two-body mergers. The results of individual halos simulated with different mass resolutions show that the gas profiles of densities, temperature and entropy are subjects of mass resolution of SPH particles. In particular, we find that in the inner parts of halos, as the SPH resolution increases the gas density becomes higher but both the entropy and temperature decrease.Comment: 8 pages, 6 figures, 1 table, ApJ in press (v652n1); updated to match with the being published versio

Barrier and internal wave contributions to the quantum probability density and flux in light heavy-ion elastic scattering

We investigate the properties of the optical model wave function for light heavy-ion systems where absorption is incomplete, such as $\alpha + ^{40}$Ca and $\alpha + ^{16}$O around 30 MeV incident energy. Strong focusing effects are predicted to occur well inside the nucleus, where the probability density can reach values much higher than that of the incident wave. This focusing is shown to be correlated with the presence at back angles of a strong enhancement in the elastic cross section, the so-called ALAS (anomalous large angle scattering) phenomenon; this is substantiated by calculations of the quantum probability flux and of classical trajectories. To clarify this mechanism, we decompose the scattering wave function and the associated probability flux into their barrier and internal wave contributions within a fully quantal calculation. Finally, a calculation of the divergence of the quantum flux shows that when absorption is incomplete, the focal region gives a sizeable contribution to nonelastic processes.Comment: 16 pages, 15 figures. RevTeX file. To appear in Phys. Rev. C. The figures are only available via anonynous FTP on ftp://umhsp02.umh.ac.be/pub/ftp_pnt/figscat

HST images and properties of the most distant radio galaxies

We present Hubble Space Telescope images of 11 high redshift radio galaxies (between $z=2.3$ and $z=3.6$). The galaxies were observed with the WFPC2 camera in a broad band filter (F606W or F707W, roughly equivalent to V or R-band), for 2 orbits each. We find that on the scale of the HST observations there is a wide variety of morphological structures of the hosting galaxies: most objects have a clumpy, irregular appearance, consisting of a bright nucleus and a number of smaller components, suggestive of merging systems. Some observed structures could be due (at least partly) to the presence of dust distributed through the galaxies. The UV continuum emission is generally elongated and aligned with the axis of the radio sources, however the characteristics of the ``alignment effect'' differ from case to case, suggesting that the phenomenon cannot be explained by a single physical mechanism. We compare the properties of our radio galaxies with those of the UV dropout galaxies and conclude that (i) the most massive radio galaxies may well evolve from an aggregate of UV dropout galaxies and (ii) high redshift radio galaxies probably evolve into present day brightest cluster galaxies.Comment: 22 pages, 30 figures, accepted by A&

The late-type stellar content of the Fornax and Sculptor dwarf galaxies

A field of area 0.13 square degrees has been surveyed for late-type stars in each of the Fornax and Sculptor dwarf elliptical galaxies. JHK photometric data have been obtained for most of the stars found. In Fornax, we have positively identified 25 C stars and one M giant. In Sculptor, two relatively blue C stars and a small number of possible M giants have been identified. In contrast to the Magellanic Clouds, there are no M6-M9 giants in Fornax or Sculptor. The mean value and the variance of the bolometric luminosity function for the Fornax C stars are — 4.66 ± 0.47, quite similar to the values for the Magellanic Cloud C stars. The colors of the Fornax C stars overlap those of the C stars in the Magellanic Clouds but are bluer in the mean. The large dispersion in the color-magnitude diagram of the Fornax C stars is interpreted as arising from a significant spread in age and/or metallicity in the stellar population of Fornax. The C stars found in Sculptor are quite similar in color and luminosity to the C stars in the globular cluster ω Centauri and are at the faint end of the luminosity distribution of C stars found in the Magellanic Clouds and Fornax. The ratio of cool C stars to M stars, as determined from identical survey techniques, increases dramatically along the sequence Milky Way, LMC, SMC, and Fornax. This increase, together with systematic changes in the colors of the C and M stars, can be understood as arising from a systematic decrease in the mean metallicity of the galaxies on this sequence. The lack of concurrent significant changes in M_(bol)(mean) or M_(bol)(max) of the carbon stars may not be consistent with current theories of C star formation and evolution. The new data for Sculptor, as well as those previously published, point to a stellar population, and possibly a star-formation history, qualitatively similar to that of ω Cen. A sharp discontinuity between Fornax and Sculptor in some of the properties which characterize the late-type stellar population of these two systems stands in contrast to a rather smooth gradation in the same properties for Fornax and galaxies more massive than it. We speculate that this discontinuity could have arisen if Sculptor were stripped of its gas component at a much earlier time than Fornax

Tracking Down a Critical Halo Mass for Killing Galaxies through the Growth of the Red-Sequence

Red-sequence galaxies record the history of terminated star-formation in the Universe and can thus provide important clues to the mechanisms responsible for this termination. We construct composite samples of published cluster and field galaxy photometry in order to study the build-up of galaxies on the red-sequence, as parameterised by the dwarf-to-giant ratio (DGR). We find that the DGR in clusters is higher than that of the field at all redshifts, implying that the faint end of the red-sequence was established first in clusters. We find that the DGR evolves with redshift for both samples, consistent with the ``down-sizing'' picture of star formation. We examine the predictions of semi-analytic models for the DGR and find that neither the magnitude of its environmental dependence nor its evolution is correctly predicted in the models. Red-sequence DGRs are consistently too high in the models, the most likely explanation being that the strangulation mechanism used to remove hot gas from satellite galaxies is too efficient. Finally we present a simple toy model including a threshold mass, below which galaxies are not strangled, and show that this can predict the observed evolution of the field DGR.Comment: MNRAS letters accepted. 5 pages, 1 figur

Trend in ice moistening the stratosphere – constraints from isotope data of water and methane

Water plays a major role in the chemistry and radiative budget of the stratosphere. Air enters the stratosphere predominantly in the tropics, where the very low temperatures around the tropopause constrain water vapour mixing ratios to a few parts per million. Observations of stratospheric water vapour show a large positive long-term trend, which can not be explained by change in tropopause temperatures. Trends in the partitioning between vapour and ice of water entering the stratosphere have been suggested to resolve this conundrum. We present measurements of stratospheric H_(2)O, HDO, CH_4 and CH_(3)D in the period 1991–2007 to evaluate this hypothesis. Because of fractionation processes during phase changes, the hydrogen isotopic composition of H_(2)O is a sensitive indicator of changes in the partitioning of vapour and ice. We find that the seasonal variations of H_(2)O are mirrored in the variation of the ratio of HDO to H_(2)O with a slope of the correlation consistent with water entering the stratosphere mainly as vapour. The variability in the fractionation over the entire observation period is well explained by variations in H_(2)O. The isotopic data allow concluding that the trend in ice arising from particulate water is no more than (0.01±0.13) ppmv/decade in the observation period. Our observations suggest that between 1991 and 2007 the contribution from changes in particulate water transported through the tropopause plays only a minor role in altering in the amount of water entering the stratosphere

Providing Self-Aware Systems with Reflexivity

We propose a new type of self-aware systems inspired by ideas from higher-order theories of consciousness. First, we discussed the crucial distinction between introspection and reflexion. Then, we focus on computational reflexion as a mechanism by which a computer program can inspect its own code at every stage of the computation. Finally, we provide a formal definition and a proof-of-concept implementation of computational reflexion, viewed as an enriched form of program interpretation and a way to dynamically "augment" a computational process.Comment: 12 pages plus bibliography, appendices with code description, code of the proof-of-concept implementation, and examples of executio

Effect of positron-atom interactions on the annihilation gamma spectra of molecules

Calculations of gamma spectra for positron annihilation on a selection of molecules, including methane and its fluoro-substitutes, ethane, propane, butane and benzene are presented. The annihilation gamma spectra characterise the momentum distribution of the electron-positron pair at the instant of annihilation. The contribution to the gamma spectra from individual molecular orbitals is obtained from electron momentum densities calculated using modern computational quantum chemistry density functional theory tools. The calculation, in its simplest form, effectively treats the low-energy (thermalised, room-temperature) positron as a plane wave and gives annihilation gamma spectra that are about 40% broader than experiment, although the main chemical trends are reproduced. We show that this effective "narrowing" of the experimental spectra is due to the action of the molecular potential on the positron, chiefly, due to the positron repulsion from the nuclei. It leads to a suppression of the contribution of small positron-nuclear separations where the electron momentum is large. To investigate the effect of the nuclear repulsion, as well as that of short-range electron-positron and positron-molecule correlations, a linear combination of atomic orbital description of the molecular orbitals is employed. It facilitates the incorporation of correction factors which can be calculated from atomic many-body theory and account for the repulsion and correlations. Their inclusion in the calculation gives gamma spectrum linewidths that are in much better agreement with experiment. Furthermore, it is shown that the effective distortion of the electron momentum density, when it is observed through positron annihilation gamma spectra, can be approximated by a relatively simple scaling factor.Comment: 26 pages, 12 figure

Implications of Halo Inside-out Growth on the X-Ray Properties of Nearby Galaxy Systems within the Preheating Scenario

We present an entirely analytic model for a preheated, polytropic intergalactic medium in hydrostatic equilibrium within a NFW dark halo potential in which the evolution of the halo structure between major merger events proceeds inside-out by accretion. This model is used to explain, within a standard $\Lambda$CDM cosmogony, the observed X-ray properties of nearby relaxed, non-cooling flow groups and clusters of galaxies. We find that our preferred solution to the equilibrium equations produces scaling relations in excellent agreement with observations, while simultaneously accounting for the typical structural characteristics of the distribution of the diffuse baryons. In the class of preheating models, ours stands out because it offers a unified description of the intrahalo medium for galaxy systems with total masses above \sm 2\times 10^{13}\msun, does not produce baryonic configurations with large isentropic cores, and reproduces faithfully the observed behavior of the gas entropy at large radii. All this is achieved with a moderate level of energy injection of about half a keV, which can be easily accommodated within the limits of the total energy released by the most commonly invoked feedback mechanisms, as well as with a polytropic index of 1.2, consistent with both many observational determinations and predictions from high-resolution gas-dynamical simulations of non-cooling flow clusters. More interestingly, our scheme offers a physical motivation for the adoption of this specific value of the polytropic index, as it is the one that best ensures the conservation after halo virialization of the balance between the total specific energies of the gas and dark matter components for the full range of masses investigated.Comment: 18 pages, 11 figures, accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journa