Model uncertainty in the ecosystem approach to fisheries

Fisheries scientists habitually consider uncertainty in parameter values, but often neglect uncertainty about model structure. The importance of this latter source of uncertainty is likely to increase with the greater emphasis on ecosystem models in the move to an ecosystem approach to fisheries (EAF). It is therefore necessary to increase awareness about pragmatic approaches with which fisheries modellers and managers can account for model uncertainty and so we review current ways of dealing with model uncertainty in fisheries and other disciplines. These all involve considering a set of alternative models representing different structural assumptions, but differ in how those models are used. The models can be used to identify bounds on possible outcomes, find management actions that will perform adequately irrespective of the true model, find management actions that best achieve one or more objectives given weights assigned to each model, or formalise hypotheses for evaluation through experimentation. Data availability is likely to limit the use of approaches that involve weighting alternative models in an ecosystem setting, and the cost of experimentation is likely to limit its use. Practical implementation of the EAF should therefore be based on management approaches that acknowledge the uncertainty inherent in model predictions and are robust to it. Model results must be presented in a way that represents the risks and trade-offs associated with alternative actions and the degree of uncertainty in predictions. This presentation should not disguise the fact that, in many cases, estimates of model uncertainty may be based on subjective criteria. The problem of model uncertainty is far from unique to fisheries, and coordination among fisheries modellers and modellers from other communities will therefore be useful

Stock assessment for fishery management - A framework guide to the stock assessment tools of the Fisheries Management Science Programme (FMSP)

This document provides guidelines for fish stock assessment and fishery management using the software tools and other outputs developed by the United Kingdom's Department for International Development's Fisheries Management Science Programme (FMSP) from 1992 to 2004. It explains some key elements of the precautionary approach to fisheries management and outlines a range of alternative stock assessment approaches that can provide the information needed for such precautionary management. Four FMSP software tools, LFDA (Length Frequency Data Analysis), CEDA (Catch Effort Data Analysis), YIELD and ParFish (Participatory Fisheries Stock Assessment), are described with which intermediary parameters, performance indicators and reference points may be estimated. The document also contains examples of the assessment and management of multispecies fisheries, the use of Bayesian methodologies, the use of empirical modelling approaches for estimating yields and in analysing fishery systems, and the assessment and management of inland fisheries. It also provides a comparison of length- and age-based stock assessment methods. A CD-ROM with the FMSP software packages CEDA, LFDA, YIELD and ParFish is included

Neospora caninum antibodies and risk factors in dogs from Lages and Balneário Camboriú, SC

Identificaram-se os fatores de risco e a ocorrência de anticorpos contra Neospora caninum em cães das cidades de Lages e Balneário Camboriú, SC. Amostras de soro de 400 cães domiciliados (200 de cada município) foram processadas para a detecção de anticorpos contra N. caninum pela técnica de imunofluorescência indireta. Informações acerca dos fatores de risco foram obtidas por meio de questionário. Dos 400 cães, 49 (12,3%) apresentaram anticorpos contra N. caninum. Em Lages, 26 (13%) foram positivos para N. caninume; em Balneário Camboriú, 23 (11,5%). Não foram observadas diferenças estatísticas entre as ocorrências de anticorpos contra N. caninum (P= 0,647) nas duas cidades. Das variáveis analisadas, somente idade apresentou associação (P=0.020, odds ratio= 2.557, IC 95%, 1.16-5.64) com a freqüência de cães reagentes ao N. caninum. Dentre os animais positivos, 41 (83,7%) eram adultos, indicando ocorrência de infecção pós-natal do agente

Growth, natural mortality, length-weight relationship, maximum length and length-at-first-maturity of the coelacanth Latimeria chalumnae

Based on the re-interpretation of published data, the von Bertalanffy growth function parameters of the coelacanth, Latimeria chalumnae, are estimated as L∞=218 cm total length, s.e. 23; K=0.059 (year−1), s.e. 0.012; t0=−3.3 (year), s.e. 0.5, corresponding to a life span of 48 years. The length–weight relationship of the form W=a*TL∧b, with wet weight (W) in g and total length (TL) in cm, is estimated as a=0.0278, b=2.89, r2=0.893, n=87, range=42.5–183 cm TL. Using extreme value theory, the maximum length for female coelacanths is estimated as 199 cm TL (95% confidence interval=175–223 cm TL) and for males as 168 cm TL (95% confidence interval 155–180 cm TL). Based on data from seven females with embryos or mature eggs, the length-at-first-maturity for females is estimated to be about 150 cm TL, corresponding to an age of about 16 years. Based on the value of t0=−3.3 years and on the presence of three scale rings found in a newborn coelacanth, the period of embryogenesis lasts for about three years, the longest known in vertebrates. The natural mortality rate is estimated at M=0.12. Population food consumption is found to be 1.4 times the existing biomass per year, and gross food conversion efficiency indicates that only 10% of the consumed food is utilized for somatic growth