Alternative Models of the Irish Supply Side

This paper is a product of the ongoing re-estimation of the Irish macro model. This is part of the EMI Multicountry Model. The paper is concerned with the estimation of a system of equations, which seek to capture the salient features of the supply-side of the Irish economy. Expressions are required for the marginal cost of production, long-run labour and capital demand. The estimated parameters from the system are then used to simulate the underlying production function thereby permitting the generation of key macroeconomic indicators such as the output gap and total factor productivity. A Cobb-Douglas approach is used initially to approximate the underlying technology within the economy. The associated factor demands with the Cobb-Douglas are easily derived and the functional form has the advantage of relative computational ease. Initial results from this approach yield very large measures of the output gap. Therefore, these results are then compared with the use of more flexible functional forms as a control or check. In particular, a translog production function approach is adopted and the consequent output gap is calculated. This output gap is then used as a benchmark for comparison. As a result, the Cobb-Douglas approach is re-visited and adjustments are made to the initial specification. The structural change witnessed by the Irish economy throughout the 1990’s is proxied for by the use of a number of different methods. It is found that by adopting a non-linear improvement in technology through time, the output gap achieved with the Cobb-Douglas approach correlates quite strongly with that from the more flexible translog form. This approach is then advocated for the macro model.

A Model of the Irish Housing Sector

This paper presents a model of the Irish housing sector which has been created to nest within the Irish block of the ESCB multi-country model which is maintained in the Economic Analysis Research and Publications Department. The model consists of a demand and supply side and results from it are used to examine for the presence of a bubble in the Irish housing market.

Dynamic Factor Demands in a Changing Economy: An Irish Application

In this paper, more advanced models of the Irish supply side are examined and applied. In particular, a specification of a flexible and dynamic model, which nests more traditional approaches, is adopted. The approach consists of a two-stage process. Firstly, a static translog cost function for the entire economy is specified and associated factor demands are estimated. Then a more flexible dynamic specification is presented which has as a special case the initial static specification. Standard Likelihood Ratio tests can examine the validity of the restrictions underpinning the relatively standard static specification. Estimating a dynamic flexible functional form specification of the supply side has a number of advantages over more traditional approaches such as the Cobb-Douglas. The elasticity of substitution between the factor inputs labour and capital can be determined by the data and not imposed by the researcher. Also the standard static approach to supply-side analysis assumes that producers respond instantaneously in their factor input decisions vis-à-vis changes in factor input prices. This assumption is rather unrealistic particularly given the nature of capital usage and investment. Also the differences in long and short run elasticities for factor demands are examined. The relationship between the two sets of elasticities in formalised in the Le Chatelier principle. The use of the more dynamic and flexible specification is justified in an Irish case. Input use adjustment is found to occur on a multi-period basis and not in the instantaneous fashion assumed by a static approach. The Le Chatelier principle is also observed meaning that long-run price elasticities of factor demands in absolute terms are greater than the short-run equivalents.

Listeria monocytogenes in Milk Products

peer-reviewedMilk and milk products are frequently identified as vectors for transmission of Listeria monocytogenes. Milk can be contaminated at farm level either by indirect external contamination from the farm environment or less frequently by direct contamination of the milk from infection in the animal. Pasteurisation of milk will kill L. monocytogenes, but post-pasteurisation contamination, consumption of unpasteurised milk and manufacture of unpasteurised milk products can lead to milk being the cause of outbreaks of listeriosis. Therefore, there is a concern that L. monocytogenes in milk could lead to a public health risk. To protect against this risk, there is a need for awareness surrounding the issues, hygienic practices to reduce the risk and adequate sampling and analysis to verify that the risk is controlled. This review will highlight the issues surrounding L. monocytogenes in milk and milk products, including possible control measures. It will therefore create awareness about L. monocytogenes, contributing to protection of public health

Effect of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor and angiotensin receptor blocker initiation on organ support-free days in patients hospitalized with COVID-19

IMPORTANCE Overactivation of the renin-angiotensin system (RAS) may contribute to poor clinical outcomes in patients with COVID-19. Objective To determine whether angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) initiation improves outcomes in patients hospitalized for COVID-19. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS In an ongoing, adaptive platform randomized clinical trial, 721 critically ill and 58 non–critically ill hospitalized adults were randomized to receive an RAS inhibitor or control between March 16, 2021, and February 25, 2022, at 69 sites in 7 countries (final follow-up on June 1, 2022). INTERVENTIONS Patients were randomized to receive open-label initiation of an ACE inhibitor (n = 257), ARB (n = 248), ARB in combination with DMX-200 (a chemokine receptor-2 inhibitor; n = 10), or no RAS inhibitor (control; n = 264) for up to 10 days. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome was organ support–free days, a composite of hospital survival and days alive without cardiovascular or respiratory organ support through 21 days. The primary analysis was a bayesian cumulative logistic model. Odds ratios (ORs) greater than 1 represent improved outcomes. RESULTS On February 25, 2022, enrollment was discontinued due to safety concerns. Among 679 critically ill patients with available primary outcome data, the median age was 56 years and 239 participants (35.2%) were women. Median (IQR) organ support–free days among critically ill patients was 10 (–1 to 16) in the ACE inhibitor group (n = 231), 8 (–1 to 17) in the ARB group (n = 217), and 12 (0 to 17) in the control group (n = 231) (median adjusted odds ratios of 0.77 [95% bayesian credible interval, 0.58-1.06] for improvement for ACE inhibitor and 0.76 [95% credible interval, 0.56-1.05] for ARB compared with control). The posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitors and ARBs worsened organ support–free days compared with control were 94.9% and 95.4%, respectively. Hospital survival occurred in 166 of 231 critically ill participants (71.9%) in the ACE inhibitor group, 152 of 217 (70.0%) in the ARB group, and 182 of 231 (78.8%) in the control group (posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitor and ARB worsened hospital survival compared with control were 95.3% and 98.1%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this trial, among critically ill adults with COVID-19, initiation of an ACE inhibitor or ARB did not improve, and likely worsened, clinical outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT0273570

Relational and Contractual Governance for Innovation

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Springer via the DOI in this recordWhile the early years of Information Technology (IT) and business process outsourcing (BPO) were mainly characterized by a quest for cost savings (Loh and Venkatraman 1992; Lacity and Hirschheim 1993) and a focus on core competences (Quinn and Hilmer 1994), evidence from 2000 onwards suggests that client firms have been seeking added value from outsourcing by accessing suppliers’ competences (e.g. Dyer and Nobeoka 2000; Quinn 2000; Whitley and Willcocks 2011). Mol (2005) argued that “firms are increasingly relying on partnering relationships with outside suppliers that can act as an effective substitute to the internal generation of knowledge and innovation”. Similarly, Linder et al. (2003) and Weeks and Feeny (2008) argued that client firms rely on external suppliers in the search for new ideas. Accepting that innovation is outsourced and offshored, Lewin et al. (2009) studied the determinants driving firms to offshore innovations only to conclude that firms have been entering a global race for talent in which solutions will be sought wherever skills are available. Such observations suggest that innovation may be considered as one of the possible outcomes of outsourcing engagements