The politics of IMF–EU cooperation : institutional change from the Maastricht Treaty to the launch of the Euro

How do regional changes affect the process of global governance? This article addresses this question by examining how the International Monetary Fund (IMF) responded to the challenges presented by Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) between the signing of the Maastricht Treaty in 1992 and the launch of the euro in 1999. Based on primary research from the IMF archives, the article illustrates how the IMF's efforts to reconfigure its relationship with European institutions evolved gradually through a logic of incremental change, despite initial opposition from member states. The article concludes that bureaucratic actors within international organizations will take advantage of informal avenues for promoting a new agenda when this fits with shared conceptions of an organization's mandate. The exercise of informal influence by advocates for change within an international organization can limit the options available to states in formal decision-making processes, even when these options cut across state preferences

Varying climatic-social-geographical patterns shape the conflict risk at regional and global scales

Given that armed conflict has been seriously impeding sustainable development, reducing the frequency and intensity of armed conflicts has become an explicit goal and a common theme of the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. Determining the factors shaping armed conflict risks in different regions could support formulating region-specific strategies to prevent armed conflicts. A machine learning approach was applied to reveal the drivers of, and especially the impact of climatic conditions on, armed conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia and characterizes their changes over time. The analyses show a rising impact of climatic conditions on armed conflict risk over the past decades, although the influences vary regionally. The overall percentage increases in the contribution of climatic conditions to conflict risks over the last 30 years in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia are 4.25, 4.76, and 10.65 percentage points, respectively. Furthermore, it is found that the Climatic–Social–Geographical (“C–S–G”) patterns that characterize armed conflict risks vary across the three studied regions, while each regional pattern remains relatively stable over time. These findings indicate that when devising defenses against conflicts, it is required to adapt to specific situations in each region to more effectively mitigate the risk of armed conflict and pursue Sustainability Development Goals

Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict

This is the author accepted manuscriptResearch findings on the relationship between climate and conflict are diverse and contested. Here we assess the current understanding of the relationship between climate and conflict, based on the structured judgments of experts from diverse disciplines. These experts agree that climate has affected organized armed conflict within countries. However, other drivers, such as low socioeconomic development and low capabilities of the state, are judged to be substantially more influential, and the mechanisms of climate–conflict linkages remain a key uncertainty. Intensifying climate change is estimated to increase future risks of conflict.European Research Counci

Immigration and prices: quasi-experimental evidence from Syrian refugees in Turkey

We exploit the regional variation in the unexpected (or forced) inflow of Syrian refugees as a natural experiment to estimate the impact of immigration on consumer prices in Turkey. Using a difference-in- differences strategy and a comprehensive data set on the regional prices of CPI items, we find that general level of consumer prices has declined by approximately 2.5 percent due to immigration. Prices of goods and services have declined in similar magnitudes. We highlight that the channel through which the price declines take place is the informal labor market. Syrian refugees supply inexpensive informal labor and, thus, substitute the informal native workers especially in informal labor intensive sectors. We document that prices in these sectors have fallen by around 4 percent, while the prices in the formal labor intensive sectors have almost remained unchanged. Increase in the supply of informal immigrant workers generates labor cost advantages and keeps prices lower in the informal labor intensive sectors

A case series of familial ARID1B variants illustrating variable expression and suggestions to update the ACMG criteria

ARID1B is one of the most frequently mutated genes in intellectual disability (~1%). Most variants are readily classified, since they are de novo and are predicted to lead to loss of function, and therefore classified as pathogenic according to the American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics (ACMG) guidelines for the interpretation of sequence variants. However, familial loss-of-function variants can also occur and can be challenging to interpret. Such variants may be pathogenic with variable expression, causing only a mild phenotype in a parent. Alternatively, since some regions of the ARID1B gene seem to be lacking pathogenic variants, loss-of-function variants in those regions may not lead to ARID1B haploinsufficiency and may therefore be benign. We describe 12 families with potential loss-of-function variants, which were either familial or with unknown inheritance and were in regions where pathogenic variants have not been described or are otherwise challenging to interpret. We performed detailed clinical and DNA methylation studies, which allowed us to confidently classify most variants. In five families we observed transmission of pathogenic variants, confirming their highly variable expression. Our findings provide further evidence for an alternative translational start site and we suggest updates for the ACMG guidelines for the interpretation of sequence variants to incorporate DNA methylation studies and facial analyses

Geography, institutions and development: a review ofthe long-run impacts of climate change

The links between climate change, economic growth and economic development have gained increasing attention over recent years in both the academic and policy literature. However, most of the existing literature has tended to focus on direct, short run effects of climate change on the economy, for example due to extreme weather events and changes in agricultural growing conditions. In this paper we review potential effects of climate change on the prospects for long-run economic development. These effects might operate directly, via the role of geography (including climate) as a fundamental determinant of relative prosperity, or indirectly by modifying the environmental context in which political and economic institutions evolve. We consider potential mechanisms from climate change to long-run economic development that have been relatively neglected to date, including, for instance, effects on the distribution of income and political power. We conclude with some suggestions for areas of future research

Elucidating the clinical and molecular spectrum of SMARCC2-associated NDD in a cohort of 65 affected individuals

Purpose: Coffin-Siris and Nicolaides-Baraitser syndromes, are recognisable neurodevelopmental disorders caused by germline variants in BAF complex subunits. The SMARCC2 BAFopathy was recently reported. Herein, we present clinical and molecular data on a large cohort. Methods: Clinical symptoms for 41 novel and 24 previously published affected individuals were analyzed using the Human Phenotype Ontology. For genotype-phenotype correlation, molecular data were standardized and grouped into non-truncating and likely gene-disrupting (LGD) variants. Missense variant protein expression and BAF subunit interactions were examined using 3D protein modeling, co-immunoprecipitation, and proximity-ligation assays. Results: Neurodevelopmental delay with intellectual disability, muscular hypotonia and behavioral disorders were the major manifestations. Clinical hallmarks of BAFopathies were rare. Clinical presentation differed significantly, with LGD variants being predominantly inherited and associated with mildly reduced or normal cognitive development, while non-truncating variants were mostly de novo and presented with severe developmental delay. These distinct manifestations and non-truncating variant clustering in functional domains suggest different pathomechanisms. In vitro testing showed decreased protein expression for N-terminal missense variants similar to LGD. Conclusion: This study improved SMARCC2 variant classification and identified discernible SMARCC2-associated phenotypes for LGD and non-truncating variants, which were distinct from other BAFopathies. The pathomechanism of most non-truncating variants has yet to be investigated