Seasonal forecast skill of upper-ocean heat content in coupled high-resolution systems

AbstractOcean heat content (OHC) anomalies typically persist for several months, making this variable a vital component of seasonal predictability in both the ocean and the atmosphere. However, the ability of seasonal forecasting systems to predict OHC remains largely untested. Here, we present a global assessment of OHC predictability in two state-of-the-art and fully-coupled seasonal forecasting systems. Overall, we find that dynamical systems make skilful seasonal predictions of OHC in the upper 300 m across a range of forecast start times, seasons and dynamical environments. Predictions of OHC are typically as skilful as predictions of sea surface temperature (SST), providing further proof that accurate representation of subsurface heat contributes to accurate surface predictions. We also compare dynamical systems to a simple anomaly persistence model to identify where dynamical systems provide added value over cheaper forecasts; this largely occurs in the equatorial regions and the tropics, and to a greater extent in the latter part of the forecast period. Regions where system performance is inadequate include the sub-polar regions and areas dominated by sharp fronts, which should be the focus of future improvements of climate forecasting systems

Urinary peptidomics analysis reveals proteases involved in diabetic nephropathy

Mechanisms underlying the onset and progression of nephropathy in diabetic patients are not fully elucidated. Deregulation of proteolytic systems is a known path leading to disease manifestation, therefore we hypothesized that proteases aberrantly expressed in diabetic nephropathy (DN) may be involved in the generation of DN-associated peptides in urine. We compared urinary peptide profiles of DN patients (macroalbuminuric, n = 121) to diabetic patients with no evidence of DN (normoalbuminuric, n = 118). 302 sequenced, differentially expressed peptides (adjusted p-value < 0.05) were analysed with the Proteasix tool predicting proteases potentially involved in their generation. Activity change was estimated based on the change in abundance of the investigated peptides. Predictions were correlated with transcriptomics (Nephroseq) and relevant protein expression data from the literature. This analysis yielded seventeen proteases, including multiple forms of MMPs, cathepsin D and K, kallikrein 4 and proprotein convertases. The activity of MMP-2 and MMP-9, predicted to be decreased in DN, was investigated using zymography in a DN mouse model confirming the predictions. Collectively, this proof-of-concept study links urine peptidomics to molecular changes at the tissue level, building hypotheses for further investigation in DN and providing a workflow with potential applications to other diseases

Impact of ocean in-situ observations on ECMWF sub-seasonal forecasts

We assess for the first time the impact of in-situ ocean observations on European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) sub-seasonal forecasts of both ocean and atmospheric conditions. A series of coupled reforecasts have been conducted for the period 1993-2015, in which different sets of ocean observations were withdrawn in the production of the ocean initial conditions. Removal of all ocean in-situ observations in the initial conditions leads to significant degradation in the forecasts of ocean surface and subsurface mean state at lead times from week 1 to week 4. The negative impact is predominantly caused by the removal of the Argo observing system in recent decades. Changes in the mean state of atmospheric variables are comparatively small but significant in the forecasts of lower and upper atmospheric circulation over large regions. Our results highlight the value of continuous, real-time in-situ observations of the surface and subsurface ocean for coupled forecasts in the sub-seasonal range

New school trajectories: urban students in rural schools

En este artículo, se analiza un proceso específico de escolarización que ocurre en escuelas secundarias localizadas en ámbitos rurales próximos a centros urbanos. Se trata del desplazamiento de jóvenes urbanos hacia escuelas rurales. El fenómeno alcanza proporciones significativas en algunas instituciones cuya localización resulta accesible desde las ciudades, lo que permite el traslado diario de quienes, residiendo en el ámbito urbano, concurren a estas escuelas. Esta presencia de estudiantes provenientes del medio urbano en escuelas rurales constituye un indicador del cambio de sentido que han tomado las migraciones en algunos espacios rurales próximos a ciudades con urbanizaciones crecientes. La cuestión evidencia nuevos intereses y necesidades de las familias relacionadas con la escolarización de los adolescentes. La investigación combinó estrategias de relevamiento en terreno. Se aplicó una encuesta a estudiantes que reunían la condición de residencia urbana y matriculación en escuela rural, así como también se realizaron consultas mediante entrevistas a familias y autoridades escolares.Ciertas características institucionales de las escuelas rurales convergen para su elección por parte de algunos sectores urbanos. El desarrollo curricular en tiempos comprimidos, los cursos con pocos alumnos y la organización escolar flexible constituyen los aspectos sobresalientes que motivan la migración de la matrícula escolar.This article analyzes a specific process of schooling that occurs in secondary schools located in rural areas close to urban centers: the displacement of urban youth to rural schools. This phenomenon reaches significant proportions in some institutions whose location is accessible from the cities, which allows the daily commute of those who attend these schools, but live in urban areas. The presence of students from urban areas in rural schools is an indicator about the change of direction that migrations have taken in some rural areas near cities with growing urbanization. This situation shows new interests and needs from families regarding the schooling of adolescents. The research combined field data-gathering strategies. A survey was done to students who met the condition of urban residence and enrollment in a rural school, and consultations were carried out through interviews with families and school authorities. Certain institutional characteristics of rural schools converge to be chosen by some urban sectors. Curriculum development in compressed times, courses with few students and flexible school organization constitute the prominent aspects that prompt a migration in school enrollment.Fil: Mayer, María Susana. Universidad Autónoma de Entre Ríos; ArgentinaFil: Vlasic, Verónica Magdalena. Universidad Autónoma de Entre Ríos; ArgentinaFil: Mayor, Alejo. Universidad Autónoma de Entre Ríos; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentin

Skill assessment of seasonal forecasts of ocean variables

There is growing demand for seasonal forecast products for marine applications. The availability of consistent and sufficiently long observational records of ocean variables permits the assessment of the spatial distribution of the skill of ocean variables from seasonal forecasts. Here we use state-of-the-art temporal records of sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface height (SSH) and upper 300m ocean heat content (OHC) to quantify the distribution of skill, up to 2 seasons ahead, of two operational seasonal forecasting systems contributing to the seasonal multi-model of the Copernicus Climate Change Services (C3S). This study presents the spatial distribution of the skill of the seasonal forecast ensemble mean in terms of anomaly correlation and root mean square error and compares it to the persistence and climatological benchmarks. The comparative assessment of the skill among variables sheds light on sources/limits of predictability at seasonal time scales, as well as the nature of model errors. Beyond these standard verification metrics, we also evaluate the ability of the models to represent the observed long-term trends. Results show that long-term trends contribute to the skill of seasonal forecasts. Although the forecasts capture the long-term trends in general, some regional aspects remain challenging. Part of these errors can be attributed to specific aspects of the ocean initialization, but others, such as the overestimation of the warming in the Eastern Pacific are also influenced by model error. Skill gains can be obtained by improving the trend representation in future forecasting systems. In the meantime, a forecast calibration procedure that corrects the linear trends can produce substantial skill gains. The results show that calibrated seasonal forecasts beat both the climatological and persistence benchmark almost at every location for all initial dates and lead times. Results demonstrate the value of the seasonal forecasts for marine applications and highlight the importance of representing the decadal variability and trends in ocean heat content and sea level

Effects of Maraviroc and Efavirenz on Markers of Immune Activation and Inflammation and Associations with CD4+ Cell Rises in HIV-Infected Patients

Maraviroc treatment for HIV-1 infected patients results in larger CD4(+) T cell rises than are attributable to its antiviral activity alone. We investigated whether this is due to modulation of T cell activation and inflammation.Thirty maraviroc-treated patients from the Maraviroc versus Efavirenz Regimens as Initial Therapy (MERIT) study were randomly selected from among those who had CCR5-tropic (R5) HIV on screening and achieved undetectable HIV RNA (<50 copies/mL) by Week 48. Efavirenz-treated controls were matched for baseline characteristics to the maraviroc-treated patients selected for this substudy. Changes in immune activation and inflammation markers were examined for associations with CD4(+) T cell changes. Maraviroc treatment tended to result in more rapid decreases in CD38 expression on CD4(+) T cells and in plasma D-dimer concentrations than did treatment with efavirenz. The proportion of patients with high-sensitivity C-reactive protein >2 µg/mL increased from 45% to 66% in the efavirenz arm, but remained constant in the maraviroc arm (P = 0.033). Decreases in CD38 expression on CD8(+) T cells were correlated with CD4(+) T cell rises for maraviroc treatment (r = -0.4, P = 0.048), but not for treatment with efavirenz.Maraviroc-treated patients had earlier, modest decreases in certain markers of immune activation and inflammation, although in this small study, many of the differences were not statistically significant. Levels of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein remained constant in the maraviroc arm and increased in the efavirenz arm. Decreases in immune activation correlated with increased CD4(+) T cell gains.ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00098293

Skill assessment of ECV/EOV from seasonal forecast

Assess the seasonal forecast skill of selected ocean variables - SST, OHC300m, and SSH - from the ensemble of ECMWF and CMCC seasonal forecasts systems contributing to C3

Derive observable ocean climate indicators from seasonal forecast

Derive the user-relevant indicators defined in Milestone MS7 from the ensemble of ECMWF and CMCC seasonal forecasts systems contributing to C3

NADES y subproductos agroalimentarios: hacia el desarrollo de nuevos alimentos funcionales

La industria olivícola genera un 80 % de subproductos orgánicos en relación a la masa vegetal procesada, cuyo tratamiento y disposición final supone un costo añadido además del impacto ambiental que ocasionan 1 . Estos subproductos contienen valiosos compuestos bioactivos, sin embargo sus principales usos le confieren escaso valor (combustible, alimento para animales, entre otras) 2 .Entre los principales biocompuestos presentes se destacan los fenoles, como hidroxitirosol y luteolina, con relevantes propiedades biológicas tales como antioxidantes, antimicrobianas, antiinflamatorias y antitumorales 3 . Generalmente las tecnologías empleadas para la extracción de compuestos bioactivos de residuos se basan en la utilización de distintos solventes orgánicos. En este trabajo se combinaron tecnologías verdes con solventes eutécticos naturales (NADES) para la extracción de biocompuestos a partir de subproductos de la industria del aceite de oliva (alperujo) provenientes de diferentes temporadas y cultivares. Los extractos de NADES se caracterizaron demostrando alta eficiencia de extracción en comparación con los solventes orgánicos tradicionales. Se seleccionó como extractante un NADES compuesto de ácido láctico, glucosa y agua (LGH). Con el fin de explorar su bioaccesibilidad, se realizó y monitoreó la digestión in vitro durante las diferentes etapas del proceso, evaluando por métodos espectrofotométricos el contenido fenólico, antocianinas totales y capacidad antioxidante; y determinando la concentración de hidroxitirosol y luteolina mediante HPLC-UV. El índice de recuperación para la fase intestinal fue del 183 % para hidroxitirosol y del 75 % para luteolina. Teniendo en cuenta que los componentes del NADES seleccionado son de grado alimenticio, los extractos obtenidos a partir de los subproductos de la industria aceite de oliva se presentan como una alternativa con gran potencial en el desarrollo de nuevos alimentos funcionales y fitomedicina.Fil: Neuls Mayer, Morgana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto de Biología Agrícola de Mendoza. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias. Instituto de Biología Agrícola de Mendoza; ArgentinaFil: Fernández, María de Los Ángeles. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto de Biología Agrícola de Mendoza. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias. Instituto de Biología Agrícola de Mendoza; ArgentinaFil: Espino, Magdalena Belén. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto de Biología Agrícola de Mendoza. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias. Instituto de Biología Agrícola de Mendoza; ArgentinaFil: Silva, María Fernanda. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto de Biología Agrícola de Mendoza. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias. Instituto de Biología Agrícola de Mendoza; ArgentinaXI Congreso Argentino de Química AnalíticaCorrientesArgentinaAsociación Argentina de Químicos AnalíticosUniversidad Nacional del Nordeste. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales y Agrimensur