The binding constraint on firms'growth in developing countries

Firms in developing countries face numerous and serious constraints on their growth, ranging from corruption to lack of infrastructure to inability to access finance. Countries lack the resources to remove all the constraints at once and so would be better off removing the most binding one first. This paper uses data from World Bank Enterprise Surveys in 2006-10 to identify the most binding constraints on firm operations in developing countries. While each country faces a different set of constraints, these constraints also vary by firm characteristics, especially firm size. Across all countries, access to finance is among the most binding constraints; other obstacles appear to matter much less. This result is robust for all regions. Smaller firms must rely more on their own funds to invest and would grow significantly faster if they had greater access to external funds. As a result, a low level of financial development skews the firm size distribution by increasing the relative share of small firms. The results suggest that financing constraints play a significant part in explaining the"missing middle"-- the failure of small firms in developing countries to grow into medium-size or large firms.Access to Finance,Environmental Economics&Policies,Microfinance,Debt Markets,Banks&Banking Reform

Bayesian models for aggregate and individual patient data component network meta-analysis.

Network meta-analysis can synthesize evidence from studies comparing multiple treatments for the same disease. Sometimes the treatments of a network are complex interventions, comprising several independent components in different combinations. A component network meta-analysis (CNMA) can be used to analyze such data and can in principle disentangle the individual effect of each component. However, components may interact with each other, either synergistically or antagonistically. Deciding which interactions, if any, to include in a CNMA model may be difficult, especially for large networks with many components. In this article, we present two Bayesian CNMA models that can be used to identify prominent interactions between components. Our models utilize Bayesian variable selection methods, namely the stochastic search variable selection and the Bayesian LASSO, and can benefit from the inclusion of prior information about important interactions. Moreover, we extend these models to combine data from studies providing aggregate information and studies providing individual patient data (IPD). We illustrate our models in practice using three real datasets, from studies in panic disorder, depression, and multiple myeloma. Finally, we describe methods for developing web-applications that can utilize results from an IPD-CNMA, to allow for personalized estimates of relative treatment effects given a patient's characteristics

Retrieval of individual patient data depended on study characteristics : a randomized controlled trial

OBJECTIVE: To examine the effect of providing a financial incentive to authors of randomized clinical trials (RCTs) to obtain individual patient data (IPD). STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Parallel-group RCT with authors identified in the RCTs eligible for two systematic reviews. The authors were randomly allocated to the intervention (financial incentive with several contact approaches) or control group (using the same contact approaches). Studied outcomes: proportion of authors who provided IPD, time to obtain IPD, and completeness of IPD received. RESULTS: Of the 129 authors contacted, 37 authors suggested or contacted a person/funder providing relevant details or showed interest to collaborate, while 45 authors directed us to contact a person/funder, lacked resources/time, did not have ownership/approval to share the IPD, or claimed IPD was too old. None of the authors shared their IPD. We contacted 17 sponsors and received two complete IPD datasets from one sponsor. The time to obtain IPD was >1 year after a sponsor's positive response. Common barriers included study identification, data ownership, limited data access, and required IPD licenses. CONCLUSIONS: IPD sharing may depend on study characteristics, including funding type, study size, study risk of bias, and treatment effect, but not on providing a financial incentive. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinical Trials.gov (NCT02569411), registered on October 5th, 2015

Interventions for preventing falls and fall-related fractures in community-dwelling older adults: A systematic review and network meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE To compare the effectiveness of single, multiple, and multifactorial interventions to prevent falls and fall-related fractures in community-dwelling older persons. METHODS MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials were systematically searched for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) evaluating the effectiveness of fall prevention interventions in community-dwelling adults aged ≥65 years, from inception until February 27, 2019. Two large RCTs (published in 2020 after the search closed) were included in post hoc analyses. Pairwise meta-analysis and network meta-analysis (NMA) were conducted. RESULTS NMA including 192 studies revealed that the following single interventions, compared with usual care, were associated with reductions in number of fallers: exercise (risk ratio [RR] 0.83; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.77-0.89) and quality improvement strategies (e.g., patient education) (RR 0.90; 95% CI 0.83-0.98). Exercise as a single intervention was associated with a reduction in falls rate (RR 0.79; 95% CI 0.73-0.86). Common components of multiple interventions significantly associated with a reduction in number of fallers and falls rate were exercise, assistive technology, environmental assessment and modifications, quality improvement strategies, and basic falls risk assessment (e.g., medication review). Multifactorial interventions were associated with a reduction in falls rate (RR 0.87; 95% CI 0.80-0.95), but not with a reduction in number of fallers (RR 0.95; 95% CI 0.89-1.01). The following single interventions, compared with usual care, were associated with reductions in number of fall-related fractures: basic falls risk assessment (RR 0.60; 95% CI 0.39-0.94) and exercise (RR 0.62; 95% CI 0.42-0.90). CONCLUSIONS In keeping with Tricco et al. (2017), several single and multiple fall prevention interventions are associated with fewer falls. In addition to Tricco, we observe a benefit at the NMA-level of some single interventions on preventing fall-related fractures

Endovascular equipoise shift in a phase III randomized clinical trial of sonothrombolysis for acute ischemic stroke

Background: Results of our recently published phase III randomized clinical trial of ultrasound-enhanced thrombolysis (sonothrombolysis) using an operator-independent, high frequency ultrasound device revealed heterogeneity of patient recruitment among centers. Methods: We performed a post hoc analysis after excluding subjects that were recruited at centers reporting a decline in the balance of randomization between sonothrombolysis and concurrent endovascular trials. Results: From a total of 676 participants randomized in the CLOTBUST-ER trial we identified 52 patients from 7 centers with perceived equipoise shift in favor of endovascular treatment. Post hoc sensitivity analysis in the intention-to-treat population adjusted for age, National Institutes of Health Scale score at baseline, time from stroke onset to tPA bolus and baseline serum glucose showed a significant (p < 0.01) interaction of perceived endovascular equipoise shift on the association between sonothrombolysis and 3 month functional outcome [adjusted common odds ratio (cOR) in centers with perceived endovascular equipoise shift: 0.22, 95% CI 0.06–0.75; p = 0.02; adjusted cOR for centers without endovascular equipoise shift: 1.20, 95% CI 0.89–1.62; p = 0.24)]. After excluding centers with perceived endovascular equipoise shift, patients randomized to sonothrombolysis had higher odds of 3 month functional independence (mRS scores 0–2) compared with patients treated with tPA only (adjusted OR: 1.53; 95% CI 1.01–2.31; p = 0.04). Conclusion: Our experience in CLOTBUST-ER indicates that increasing implementation of endovascular therapies across major academic stroke centers raises significant challenges for clinical trials aiming to test noninterventional or adjuvant reperfusion strategies

Safety and efficacy of sonothrombolysis for acute ischaemic stroke: a multicentre, double-blind, phase 3, randomised controlled trial

Background: Pulsed-wave ultrasound increases the exposure of an intracranial thrombus to alteplase (recombinant tissue plasminogen activator), potentially facilitating early reperfusion. We aimed to ascertain if a novel operator-independent transcranial ultrasound device delivering low-power high-frequency ultrasound could improve functional outcome in patients treated with alteplase after acute ischaemic stroke. Methods: We did a multicentre, double-blind, phase 3, randomised controlled trial (CLOTBUST-ER) at 76 medical centres in 14 countries. We included patients with acute ischaemic stroke (National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score ≥10) who received intravenous thrombolysis (alteplase bolus) within 3 h of symptom onset in North America and within 4·5 h of symptom onset in all other countries. Participants were randomly allocated (1:1) via an interactive web response system to either active ultrasound (2 MHz pulsed-wave ultrasound for 120 min [sonothrombolysis]; intervention group) or sham ultrasound (control group). Ultrasound was delivered using an operator-independent device, which had to be activated within 30 min of the alteplase bolus. Participants, investigators, and those assessing outcomes were unaware of group assignments. The primary outcome was improvement in the modified Rankin Scale score at 90 days in patients enrolled within 3 h of symptom onset, assessed in the intention-to-treat population as a common odds ratio (cOR) using ordinal logistic regression shift analysis. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01098981. The trial was stopped early by the funder after the second interim analysis because of futility. Findings: Between August, 2013, and April, 2015, 335 patients were randomly allocated to the intervention group and 341 patients to the control group. Compared with the control group, the adjusted cOR for an improvement in modified Rankin Scale score at 90 days in the intervention group was 1·05 (95% CI 0·77–1·45; p=0·74). 51 (16%) of 317 patients in the intervention group and 44 (13%) of 329 patients in the control group died (unadjusted OR 1·24, 95% CI 0·80–1·92; p=0·37) and 83 (26%) and 79 (24%), respectively, had serious adverse events (1·12, 0·79–1·60; p=0·53). Interpretation: Sonothrombolysis delivered by an operator-independent device to patients treated with alteplase after acute ischaemic stroke was feasible and most likely safe, but no clinical benefit was seen at 90 days. Sonothrombolysis could be further investigated either in randomised trials undertaken in stroke centres that are dependent on patient transfer for endovascular reperfusion therapies or in countries where these treatments cannot yet be offered as the standard of care

EHS Rapid Guideline: Evidence-Informed European Recommendations on Parastomal Hernia Prevention—With ESCP and EAES Participation

Background: Growing evidence on the use of mesh as a prophylactic measure to prevent parastomal hernia and advances in guideline development methods prompted an update of a previous guideline on parastomal hernia prevention.Objective: To develop evidence-based, trustworthy recommendations, informed by an interdisciplinary panel of stakeholders.Methods: We updated a previous systematic review on the use of a prophylactic mesh for end colostomy, and we synthesized evidence using pairwise meta-analysis. A European panel of surgeons, stoma care nurses, and patients developed an evidence-to-decision framework in line with GRADE and Guidelines International Network standards, moderated by a certified guideline methodologist. The framework considered benefits and harms, the certainty of the evidence, patients’ preferences and values, cost and resources considerations, acceptability, equity and feasibility.Results: The certainty of the evidence was moderate for parastomal hernia and low for major morbidity, surgery for parastomal hernia, and quality of life. There was unanimous consensus among panel members for a conditional recommendation for the use of a prophylactic mesh in patients with an end colostomy and fair life expectancy, and a strong recommendation for the use of a prophylactic mesh in patients at high risk to develop a parastomal hernia.Conclusion: This rapid guideline provides evidence-informed, interdisciplinary recommendations on the use of prophylactic mesh in patients with an end colostomy. Further, it identifies research gaps, and discusses implications for stakeholders, including overcoming barriers to implementation and specific considerations regarding validity

Optimizing Therapy to Prevent Avoidable Hospital Admissions in Multimorbid Older Adults (OPERAM): cluster randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE To examine the effect of optimising drug treatment on drug related hospital admissions in older adults with multimorbidity and polypharmacy admitted to hospital. DESIGN Cluster randomised controlled trial. SETTING 110 clusters of inpatient wards within university based hospitals in four European countries (Switzerland, Netherlands, Belgium, and Republic of Ireland) defined by attending hospital doctors. PARTICIPANTS 2008 older adults (≥70 years) with multimorbidity (≥3 chronic conditions) and polypharmacy (≥5 drugs used long term). INTERVENTION Clinical staff clusters were randomised to usual care or a structured pharmacotherapy optimisation intervention performed at the individual level jointly by a doctor and a pharmacist, with the support of a clinical decision software system deploying the screening tool of older person's prescriptions and screening tool to alert to the right treatment (STOPP/START) criteria to identify potentially inappropriate prescribing. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE Primary outcome was first drug related hospital admission within 12 months. RESULTS 2008 older adults (median nine drugs) were randomised and enrolled in 54 intervention clusters (963 participants) and 56 control clusters (1045 participants) receiving usual care. In the intervention arm, 86.1% of participants (n=789) had inappropriate prescribing, with a mean of 2.75 (SD 2.24) STOPP/START recommendations for each participant. 62.2% (n=491) had ≥1 recommendation successfully implemented at two months, predominantly discontinuation of potentially inappropriate drugs. In the intervention group, 211 participants (21.9%) experienced a first drug related hospital admission compared with 234 (22.4%) in the control group. In the intention-to-treat analysis censored for death as competing event (n=375, 18.7%), the hazard ratio for first drug related hospital admission was 0.95 (95% confidence interval 0.77 to 1.17). In the per protocol analysis, the hazard ratio for a drug related hospital admission was 0.91 (0.69 to 1.19). The hazard ratio for first fall was 0.96 (0.79 to 1.15; 237 v 263 first falls) and for death was 0.90 (0.71 to 1.13; 172 v 203 deaths). CONCLUSIONS Inappropriate prescribing was common in older adults with multimorbidity and polypharmacy admitted to hospital and was reduced through an intervention to optimise pharmacotherapy, but without effect on drug related hospital admissions. Additional efforts are needed to identify pharmacotherapy optimisation interventions that reduce inappropriate prescribing and improve patient outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02986425

Endovascular equipoise shift in a phase III randomized clinical trial of sonothrombolysis for acute ischemic stroke

Background: Results of our recently published phase III randomized clinical trial of ultrasound-enhanced thrombolysis (sonothrombolysis) using an operator-independent, high frequency ultrasound device revealed heterogeneity of patient recruitment among centers. Methods: We performed a post hoc analysis after excluding subjects that were recruited at centers reporting a decline in the balance of randomization between sonothrombolysis and concurrent endovascular trials. Results: From a total of 676 participants randomized in the CLOTBUST-ER trial we identified 52 patients from 7 centers with perceived equipoise shift in favor of endovascular treatment. Post hoc sensitivity analysis in the intention-to-treat population adjusted for age, National Institutes of Health Scale score at baseline, time from stroke onset to tPA bolus and baseline serum glucose showed a significant (p < 0.01) interaction of perceived endovascular equipoise shift on the association between sonothrombolysis and 3 month functional outcome [adjusted common odds ratio (cOR) in centers with perceived endovascular equipoise shift: 0.22, 95% CI 0.06–0.75; p = 0.02; adjusted cOR for centers without endovascular equipoise shift: 1.20, 95% CI 0.89–1.62; p = 0.24)]. After excluding centers with perceived endovascular equipoise shift, patients randomized to sonothrombolysis had higher odds of 3 month functional independence (mRS scores 0–2) compared with patients treated with tPA only (adjusted OR: 1.53; 95% CI 1.01–2.31; p = 0.04). Conclusion: Our experience in CLOTBUST-ER indicates that increasing implementation of endovascular therapies across major academic stroke centers raises significant challenges for clinical trials aiming to test noninterventional or adjuvant reperfusion strategies

Network meta-analysis results against a fictional treatment of average performance: treatment effects and ranking metric.

BACKGROUND Network meta-analysis (NMA) produces complex outputs as many comparisons between interventions are of interest. The estimated relative treatment effects are usually displayed in a forest plot or in a league table and several ranking metrics are calculated and presented. METHODS In this paper, we estimate relative treatment effects of each competing treatment against a fictional treatment of average performance using the 'deviation from the means' coding that has been used to parametrize categorical covariates in regression models. We then use this alternative parametrization of the NMA model to present a ranking metric (PreTA: Preferable Than Average) interpreted as the probability that a treatment is better than a fictional treatment of average performance. RESULTS We illustrate the alternative parametrization of the NMA model using two networks of interventions, a network of 18 antidepressants for acute depression and a network of four interventions for heavy menstrual bleeding. We also use these two networks to highlight differences among PreTA and existing ranking metrics. We further examine the agreement between PreTA and existing ranking metrics in 232 networks of interventions and conclude that their agreement depends on the precision with which relative effects are estimated. CONCLUSIONS A forest plot with NMA relative treatment effects using 'deviation from means' coding could complement presentation of NMA results in large networks and in absence of an obvious reference treatment. PreTA is a viable alternative to existing probabilistic ranking metrics that naturally incorporates uncertainty. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved