Importance of non-stationary analysis for assessing extreme sea levels under sea level rise

Increased coastal flooding caused by extreme sea levels (ESLs) is one of the major hazards related to sea level rise. Estimates of return levels obtained under the framework provided by extreme-event theory might be biased under climatic non-stationarity. Additional uncertainty is related to the choice of the model. In this work, we fit several extreme-value models to two long-term sea level records from Venice (96 years) and Marseille (65 years): a generalized extreme-value (GEV) distribution, a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD), a point process (PP), the joint probability method (JPM), and the revised joint probability method (RJPM) under different detrending strategies. We model non-stationarity with a linear dependence of the model's parameters on the mean sea level. Our results show that non-stationary GEV and PP models fit the data better than stationary models. The non-stationary PP model is also able to reproduce the rate of extremes occurrence fairly well. Estimates of the return levels for non-stationary and detrended models are consistently more conservative than estimates from stationary, non-detrended models. Different models were selected as being more conservative or having lower uncertainties for the two datasets. Even though the best model is case-specific, we show that non-stationary extremes analyses can provide more robust estimates of return levels to be used in coastal protection planning.</p

Prokaryotic abundance and heterotrophic metabolism in the deep Mediterranean Sea

A synthesis of field data carried out in the Mediterranean Sea are presented, aimed at contributing to the knowledge of three prokaryotic-mediated processes and their implications on the Carbon cycle. The distribution of exoenzymatic activities, secondary production and respiration rates was studied together with the prokaryotic abundances. Particular attention was paid to the meso- and bathypelagic layers which play an important role in the Mediterranean carbon cycle. The study is noteworthy because of its large spatial scale spanning the entire Mediterranean Sea over 4 years. In addition, two Atlantic stations in front of the Gibraltar Strait were investigated. The longitudinal distribution of prokaryotic activities and abundance along the MED showed different trends along the depthlayers. In particular, higher exoenzymatic rates were detected in the Eastern basin compared to the Western one; carbon respiration rate showed patterns variable with the sampling periods in the epipelagic and bathypelagic layers, while a consistent Westwards decreasing trend at the mesopelagic layers occurred. Specific enzyme activities per cell showed high values in the deepest layers for leucine aminopeptidase. Comparison with Carbon respiration rate data collected before the 2000s showed changing patterns of microbial heterotrophic processes in the Mediterranean Sea

Different pathways of nitrogen and phosphorus regeneration mediated by extracellular enzymes in temperate lakes under various trophic state

Several Italian and Chinese temperate lakes with soluble reactive phosphorus concentrations &lt; 0.015 mg L-1 were studied to estimate nitrogen and phosphorus regeneration mediated by microbial decomposition and possible different mechanisms driven by prevailing oligo- or eutrophic conditions. Leucine aminopeptidase (LAP), beta-glucosidase (GLU) and alkaline phosphatase (AP), algal, and bacterial biomass were related to trophic and environmental variables. In the eutrophic lakes, high algal and particulate organic carbon concentrations stimulated bacterial respiration (&gt; 20 mu g C L-1 h(-1)) and could favor the release of inorganic phosphorus. High extracellular enzyme activities and phosphorus solubilizing bacteria abundance in sediments accelerated nutrient regeneration. In these conditions, the positive GLU-AP relationship suggested the coupling of carbon and phosphorus regeneration; an efficient phosphorus regeneration and high nitrogen levels (up to 0.067 and 0.059 mg L-1 NH4 and NO3 in Italy; 0.631 and 1.496 mg L-1 NH4 and NO3 in China) led to chlorophyll a peaks of 14.9 and 258.4 mu g L-1 in Italy and China, respectively, and a typical algal composition. Conversely, in the oligo-mesotrophic lakes, very low nitrogen levels (in Italy, 0.001 and 0.005 mg L-1 NH4 and NO3, respectively, versus 0.053 and 0.371 mg L-1 in China) induced high LAP, while low phosphorus (33.6 and 46.3 mu g L-1 total P in Italy and China, respectively) led to high AP. In these lakes, nitrogen and phosphorus regeneration were coupled, as shown by positive LAP-AP relationship; however, the nutrient demand could not be completely met without the supply from sediments, due to low enzymatic activity and phosphorus solubilizing bacteria found in this compartment.</p

An extreme negative sea level in the Mediterranean Basin: San Giorgio case study compared with Adriatic Sea

The aim of this paper is to discuss the case of an extreme negative sea level phenomenon that occurred along Sicily Island’s coasts (Italy). Sea level time series associated to six stations that are part of the Italian tide gauge network have been analysed. By deriving the tidal residual and by evaluating meteorological parameters’ trends, it was possible to give an explanation to this phenomenon

Morphology of the Veneto Coast

A considerable amount of the North Adriatic coast is currently eroding despite the development of a wide range of measures to protect shorelines from eroding and flooding. The management of Northern Adriatic coast need a multidisciplinary, updating and modular approach. We must understand how natural and man-induced dynamics act on littoral areas. This motivated to initiate a specific research program concerning these issues started in 2003 by a cooperation among CNR-ISMAR, the Autorità di Bacino dei fiumi dell’Alto Adriatico and APAT, Servizio Laguna di Venezia. This paper shows first results of such program in progress

Insights on the Extreme Storm Surge Event of the 22 November 2022 in the Venice Lagoon

Abstract: The Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research (ISPRA) manages the national sea state real time monitoring system for Italy, which consists of the National Sea Level Network (RMN), the North Adriatic and Venice Lagoon Sea Level Network (RMLV), the National Wave Networks (RON), and a marine weather forecasting system. These systems are particularly deployed to monitor and predict storm surges that affect the northern part of the Adriatic Sea and the Venice Lagoon, usually causing damages and morphological impacts over the highly anthropized coastal areas. On 22 November 2022, an extreme storm surge event occurred in the northern Adriatic Sea, producing severe damages on its coastline. Venice and the surrounding urban settlements have been protected from flooding thanks to the operation of the Mo.S.E. (Modulo Sperimentale Elettromeccanico) system, a set of artificial barriers built to isolate the lagoon from the sea in case of extreme high tides. Coastal flooding prevention measures, such as storm-surge barriers, are indeed being widely adopted globally because of the accelerating rise in sea levels. An analysis of this extreme event is presented here to highlight the functionality and the usefulness of the ISPRA sea state monitoring system. In particular, the analysis of the as-if scenario reproducing the natural tide propagation within the lagoon, neglecting the operation of the Mo.S.E. system, can only be pursued by using hydrodynamic models forced using extensive observed data. Results highlight that the “notregulated” sea level would have exceeded 200 cm above the reference datum at Chioggia, a threshold never recorded in the Venice Lagoon since sea level monitoring systems have been operational

An Integrated Approach for Evaluating the Restoration of the Salinity Gradient in Transitional Waters: Monitoring and Numerical Modeling in the Life Lagoon Refresh Case Study

Large lagoons usually show a salinity gradient due to fresh water tributaries with inner areas characterized by lower mean values and higher fluctuation of salinity than seawaterdominated areas. In the Venice Lagoon, this ecotonal environment, characterized in the past by oligo‐mesohaline waters and large intertidal areas vegetated by reedbeds, was greatly reduced by historical human environmental modifications, including the diversion of main rivers outside the Venice Lagoon. The reduction of the fresh water inputs caused a marinization of the lagoon, with an increase in salinity and the loss of the related habitats, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. To counteract this issue, conservation actions, such as the construction of hydraulic infrastructures for the introduction and the regulation of a fresh water flow, can be implemented. The effectiveness of these actions can be preliminarily investigated and then verified through the combined implementation of environmental monitoring and numerical modeling. Through the results of the monitoring activity carried out in Venice Lagoon in the framework of the Life Lagoon Refresh (LIFE16NAT/IT/000663) project, the study of salinity is shown to be a successful and robust combination of different types of monitoring techniques. In particular, the characterization of salinity is obtained by the acquisition of continuous data, field campaigns, and numerical modeling

Trophic and Microbial Patterns in the Ross Sea Area (Antarctica): Spatial Variability during the Summer Season

In open regions of the Ross Sea, the role of the microbial community in the turnover of organic matter has scarcely been investigated; indeed, very little is known on how microbial distribution and functional diversity respond to environmental conditions and hydrographic structures. During the austral summer of 2017, two pelagic areas of the Ross Sea [the Drygalski Ice Tongue and the nearby Terra Nova Bay polynya (A area), and the continental Shelf Break area near Cape Adare (C area)] were studied at selected depths [surface, Deep Chlorophyll Maximum (DCM), Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW), deep waters]. Trophic properties [nutrient concentrations, particulate (POC), dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and its optically significant fraction (CDOM) were measured, together with the main hydrological variables. Microbial community abundance [total prokaryotes, living, dead, and actively respiring fraction, high- and low nucleic acid cells (HNA and LNA), picoand nano-eukaryotes, culturable heterotrophic bacteria], composition, and metabolism (as whole community and as isolated bacteria) were also assessed. Through a multidisciplinary dataset, this study highlighted the variable response of microbial abundance, diversity, and metabolism of the microbial community to the changing local environmental conditions of the Ross Sea. Different forces, such as organic matter inputs (mostly of detrital nature) released from the Drygalski glacier in the A area, and a coastal-to-offshore gradient in the C area, coexisted within this extreme ecosystem. This resulted in a significant spatial segregation of the edaphic parameters, and of the microbial community distribution and metabolic activity patterns

372. Prevalence of Anti-AAV8 Neutralizing Antibodies and ARSB Cross-Reactive Immunologic Material in MPS VI Patients Candidates for a Gene Therapy Trial

Recombinant vectors based on adeno-associated virus serotype 8 (AAV8) have been successfully used in the clinic and hold great promise for liver-directed gene therapy. Pre-existing immunity against AAV8 or the development of antibodies against the therapeutic transgene product might negatively affect the outcomes of gene therapy. In the prospect of an AAV8-mediated, liver-directed gene therapy clinical trial for Mucopolysaccharidosis VI (MPS VI), a lysosomal storage disorder due to arylsulfatase B (ARSB) deficiency, we investigated in a multiethnic cohort of MPS VI patients the prevalence of neutralizing antibodies (Nab) to AAV8 and the presence of ARSB cross-reactive immunologic material (CRIM), which will either affect the efficacy of gene transfer or the duration of phenotypic correction. Thirty-six MPS VI subjects included in the study harbored 45 (62.5%) missense, 13 (18%) nonsense, 9 (12.5%) frameshift (2 insertions and 7 deletions), and 5 (7%) splicing ARSB mutations. To the best of our knowledge, four mutations had not been previously described. These include: one missense (c.1178 A>G p.H393R) and three frameshift mutations [883-884duplTT (p.F295FfsX42), c.1036delG (p.E346SfsX11), c.1475delC (pP492LfsX80)] predicted to result in truncated proteins. The detection of ARSB protein in twenty-four patients out of 34 (71%) was predicted by the type of mutations. Pre-existing Nab to AAV8 were undetectable in 19/33 (58%) analyzed patients. Twelve out of 31 patients (39%) tested were both negative for Nab to AAV8 and CRIM-positive. In conclusion, this study allows estimating the number of MPS VI patients eligible for a gene therapy trial by intravenous injections of AAV8