Detection of local-scale population declines through optimized tidal marsh bird monitoring design

Evaluating the efficacy of monitoring designs is crucial for the successful monitoring and conservation of populations. For tidal marsh bird species of conservation concern, detecting population declines at local spatial scales within actionable time frames is a top priority. We examined and compared the effectiveness of alternative monitoring strategies for detecting local-scale population declines using count data from 1176 spatially-independent salt marsh sampling points throughout the northeastern United States (Maine to Virginia). We used abundance estimates that accounted for imperfect detection as initial conditions to simulate annual population declines of 5%, 10%, 30%, and 50% over a 5-year sampling period. Under an optimal monitoring design with biennial sampling, we were able to successfully detect annual population declines of ≥30% for each species and for all species combined. However, this required a minimum of 15–20 points per site being sampled. Power to detect declines, although low for detecting smaller annual declines (i.e., \u3c10%), improved substantially when points were visited twice per season, yet a third visit provided a reduced benefit. When testing factors that could potentially influence power to detect declines, we found that the power within sites was positively related to species abundance. Power was similar between biennial sampling (3 of 5 years) and annual sampling (5 of 5 years), suggesting a more cost-effective approach would be to sample every other year. We found that within most sites, detecting annual declines of 10% or less over a relatively short 5-year duration would be difficult. Hence, we recommend that salt marsh bird monitoring programs in the northeastern United States conduct two visits to each site per sampling year, include 15 or more sampling points per site (without confounding spatial independence), and conduct monitoring efforts every other year. This approach will maximize the efficacy of site-level monitoring of tidal marsh birds, which can aid in assessments of coastal wetland conservation and related habitat management efforts

The biogeography and conservation of tidal marsh bird communities across a changing landscape

Given the current mass extinction crisis and continued fragmentation of resources worldwide, the outlook is dire for global biodiversity. Rising global temperature, sea levels, and storm frequency all create environmental conditions that can drive change in species abundance and distribution across a landscape. Those species reliant upon a single type of habitat and resource for survival, termed "specialists", are particularly vulnerable to change due to their inability to utilize a variety of resources well. As a result, specialism is now considered one of the dominant factors determining extinction of species. In this dissertation I explore the effects of disturbance on habitat specialist birds in tidal marshes of the northeastern United States. This ecosystem is important due to the significant ecosystem services it provides to humans, and supports several specialist species including the saltmarsh sparrow (Ammodramus caudacutus). I examine this specialist bird community across scales of space, time, and ecological organization to A) evaluate the impacts of disturbance on tidal marsh communities and B) provide findings and management recommendations for long-term maintenance and conservation of coastal marsh ecosystems, specifically as they pertain to salt-marsh specialist birds. In Chapter 1 I introduce my study system and give background for the current conservation status of tidal marsh birds. In Chapter 2 I generate population trends in the five species particularly specialized to tidal marsh using a database of historical records, and explore potential drivers for population change through local and regional habitat disturbance. In Chapter 3 I expand upon patterns in Chapter 2 ad quantify life history strategy in marsh birds across a gradient of habitat specialization to explore how this metric explains species persistence in tidal marshes. In Chapter 4 I test several theoretical hypotheses from disturbance ecology empirically using traditional and novel community metrics. Finally, in Chapter 5 I respond to research needs identified in Chapter 4 to develop a method for quantification of high-marsh habitat using remote sensing methods. I hope the findings presented here contribute towards understanding of the mechanisms driving biodiversity patterns on our planet and help inform conservation priorities within the changing tidal marsh landscapes

Quantifying multiple breeding vital rates in two declining grassland songbirds

Many studies of reproductive success in North American songbirds have focused on nesting success, while relatively few have evaluated breeding-season adult survival and post-fledging survival. Grassland songbirds are among North America's most rapidly declining avian groups, and knowledge of factors that influence vital rates is needed to address declines, develop management strategies, and accurately model population limitation. We concurrently monitored nesting success, breeding-season adult survival, and post-fledging survival of two grassland obligates, Baird's Sparrow and Grasshopper sparrow, breeding in western North Dakota and northeastern Montana. Nesting success was monitored by locating and visiting nests at regular intervals while adult and post-fledging survival were assessed by daily telemetry tracking of radio-tagged birds. We analyzed the three variables using logistic exposure and modeled climate, temporal, and vegetative covariates to explain variation in rates. Cumulative nesting success, breeding-season adult survival, and post-fledging survival were 37%, 78%, and 25%, respectively, for Baird's Sparrow and 16%, 74%, and 55% for Grasshopper Sparrow. Both nesting success and post-fledging survival in Baird's Sparrow were responsive to environmental covariates including temporal effects and vertical vegetation structure. Conversely, vital rates of Grasshopper Sparrow were largely unresponsive to covariates we modeled, perhaps because of the species' broader habitat niche relative to Baird's Sparrow. Breeding season adult survival in both species showed little annual variation and was high relative to overwintering survival estimates for the same species, while post-fledging survival in Baird's Sparrow was low and may be a management concern. We suggest as a next step the formal comparison of vital rates across life-stages in an integrated population model capable of identifying sources of population limitation throughout the full annual cycle of the species