Shifting Preferences at the Fed: Evidence from Rolling Dynamic Multipliers and Impulse Response Analysis

The existing empirical literature on Taylor-type interest rate rules has failed to achieve a robust consensus. Indeed, the relatively common finding that the Taylor principle does not hold has fueled a degree of controversy in the field. We attribute these mixed estimation results to a raft of empirical issues from which many existing studies suffer, including bias, inconsistency, endogeneity and a failure to adequately account for the combination of persistent and stationary variables. We propose a new method of combining I(0) and I(1) series in a system setting based on the long-run structural approach of Garratt, Lee, Pesaran and Shin (2006). The application of this method to a long sample of US data provides modest support for the operation of a Taylor-type rule, albeit with considerable inertia. We argue that estimation across rolling windows may better reflect shifts in the underlying preferences of the monetary policymakers at the Federal Reserve. Such rolling estimation provides substantial evidence that the inflation and output preferences of the Fed have varied through time, presumably reflecting the prevailing economic and political conditions, its chairmanship, and the composition of the Federal Open Market Committee. Our most significant finding is that the Taylor Principle was robustly upheld under Volcker, often upheld pre-Volcker but rarely observed post-Volcker over any horizon.System Estimation with Mixed I(0) and I(1) Variables, Long-Run Structural Modelling, Rolling Estimation, Taylor Rule

International aid and the geopolitical imagination after the Cold War: A case study of development aims and aid policies for post-Soviet Russia

This thesis explores the extent to which international aid policies are informed by geopolitical imaginations. Based on an analysis of contemporary development programmes for post-Soviet Russia, the study examines two aid organizations working in Russia, and the varying degree to which issues of geopolitics underwrite their practice. The thesis demonstrates the inherent relationship between geopolitical imaginations and development strategies, as argued by Slater (1993) and Toal (1994). Drawing on Agnew (1998) it examines the universalisms and Occidental assumptions that characterize the modern geopolitical imagination and have led to calls for its revision. It concludes that geopolitical imaginations underpin much aid discourse and policy, hindering the development of effective strategies that respond to the needs of specific contexts in a shifting, multi-polar world order, and calls for greater critical evaluation with respect to the international aid discourse

Investigation of the Reelfoot South Fault in Northwestern Tennessee

The Reelfoot reverse fault, a major northwest-striking and southwest-dipping fault within the New Madrid seismic zone, is projected to cross from the Mississippi River floodplain into the loess-covered Mississippi River bluffs immediately southeast of Reelfoot Lake in northwestern Tennessee. A pressing problem is whether the Reelfoot fault (and its associated Tiptonville dome) crosses the northeast-striking Axial fault zone as once continuous fault or is segmented into two discreet faults (the Reelfoot North and the Reelfoot South faults). This investigation uses geologic mapping, geomorphic analysis, and seismic reflection to locate and determine the history of the Reelfoot (South) fault within the Mississippi River bluffs. A geologic profile of the ~3.1 Ma Upland Complex (Mississippi River terrace) within the Mississippi River bluffs reveals an apparent ~6 m of up-to-the-south displacement at the location of the projection of the Reelfoot (South) fault. Six meter high creek terraces within the bluffs are primarily confined to the Tiptonville dome thus indicating ~6 m of late Wisconsin or Holocene uplift on the Reelfoot fault and Tiptonville dome. Gravel pit distribution and anomalous stream orientations also support the Reelfoot (South) fault passing into the bluffs. Seismic reflection profiles acquired for this investigation reveals the Reelfoot (South) fault displaces the tops of the Paleozoic section 65 m, Cretaceous 40 m, Paleocene Porters Creek Clay 31 m, Eocene Wilcox Group 20 m, and Eocene Memphis Sand 16 m within the bluffs. A previously uninterpreted reflection profile completed by the USGS in 2008 reveals an up-to-the-north reverse fault 4.3 km south of the Reelfoot fault that displaces the top of the Paleozoic section 20 m and top of the Memphis Sand 6 m. This fault, or backthrust, of the Reelfoot South fault appears to be the southwest margin of the Tiptonville dome. Comparison of previous seismic reflection lines completed both northwest and southeast of the seismic reflection lines acquired for this project, reveals similar displacement histories on common stratigraphic reflectors suggesting that the Reelfoot fault has been one continuous fault zone across the Axial fault zone. The Reelfoot fault is also not laterally offset across the Axial fault zone further supporting that the Reelfoot fault is one continuous fault

The Great Moderation and the Decoupling of Monetary Policy from Long-Term Rates in the U.S. and Germany

We apply the asymmetric ARDL model advanced by Shin, Yu and Greenwood-Nimmo (2009) to the analysis of the patterns of pass-through from policy-controlled interest rates to a variety of longer-term rates in the U.S. and Germany. Our results reveal three main phenomena. Firstly, while the e®ect of a rate hike is largely con¯ned to the short-run, the e®ect of a rate cut is muted in the short-run but non-negligible at longer horizons. We characterise this pattern as a switch from short-run positive asymmetry to long-run negative asymmetry, a pattern that potentially reconciles the con°icting empirical evidence and theoretical conjectures that dominate the existing literature. Secondly, our results con¯rm that there has been a decoupling of long-term rates from policy-controlled rates during the period of the Great Moderation in both the U.S. and Germany, albeit in a complex and nonlinear way. Thirdly, by replicating Taylor's (2007) counterfactual exercise using our asymmetric models, we ¯nd that Taylor over-estimates the importance of policy-controlled rates for the broader economy. Equivalently, our results do not support Greenspan's belief that the decoupling is a recent phenomenon. In light of our findings, we conclude that a narrow focus on the interest rate as the sole instrument of monetary policy is likely to be sub-optimal under current institutional arrangements.Asymmetric ARDL Model and Dynamic Multipliers, Great Moderation, Asymmetric Interest Rate Pass-through

Unlocking the Potential of Older Adult Volunteers: The Intergenerational Leadership Institute Model as a Resource for Bolstering Extension

The Intergenerational Leadership Institute (ILI) is a yearlong certificate training program developed by Pennsylvania State University for older adults (55-plus) seeking new lifelong learning and civic engagement experiences and opportunities to contribute to innovation and change in their communities. Data from participant surveys and observations of ILI-related training and program planning sessions indicate growth in participants\u27 intergenerational programming and leadership skills in the context of translating intervention ideas into concrete plans and programs. This article describes the process and outcomes of ILI chapters in State College, Pennsylvania, and Montgomery County, Maryland, and tools and resources for assisting with program dissemination

Hybrid European MV-LV Network Models for Smart Distribution Network Modelling

A pair of European-style, integrated MV-LV circuits are presented, created by combining generic MV and real LV networks. The two models have 86,000 and 113,000 nodes, and are made readily available for download in the OpenDSS file format. Primary substation tap change controls and MV-LV feeders are represented as three-phase unbalanced distribution network models, capturing the coupling of voltages at the MV level. The assumptions made in constructing the models are outlined, including a preconditioning step that reduces the number of nodes by more than five times without affecting the solution. Two flexibility-based case studies are presented, with TSO-DSO and peer-peer-based smart controls considered. The demonstration of the heterogeneous nature of these systems is corroborated by the analysis of measured LV voltage data. The models are intended to aid the development of algorithms for maximising the benefits of smart devices within the context of whole energy systems

2T-POT Hawkes model for left- and right-tail conditional quantile forecasts of financial log-returns: out-of-sample comparison of conditional EVT models

Conditional extreme value theory (EVT) methods promise enhanced forecasting of the extreme tail events that often dominate systemic risk. We present an improved two-tailed peaks-over-threshold (2T-POT) Hawkes model that is adapted for conditional quantile forecasting in both the left and right tails of a univariate time series. This is applied to the daily log-returns of six large cap indices. We also take the unique step of fitting the model at multiple exceedance thresholds (from the 1.25% to 25.00% mirrored quantiles). Quantitatively similar asymmetries in Hawkes parameters are found across all six indices, adding further empirical support to a temporal leverage effect in financial price time series in which the impact of losses is not only larger but also more immediate. Out-of-sample backtests find that our 2T-POT Hawkes model is more reliably accurate than the GARCH-EVT model when forecasting (mirrored) value-at-risk and expected shortfall at the 5% coverage level and below. This suggests that asymmetric Hawkes-type arrival dynamics are a better approximation of the true data generating process for extreme daily log-returns than GARCH-type conditional volatility; our 2T-POT Hawkes model therefore presents a better performing alternative for financial risk modelling.Comment: Main paper: 25 pages, 7 figures, 6 tables. Supplementary material: 12 pages, 14 figure

Asymmetric excitation of left- and right-tail extreme events probed using a Hawkes model: Application to financial returns

We construct a two-tailed peak-over-threshold Hawkes model that captures asymmetric self- and cross-excitation in and between left- and right-tail extreme values within a time series. We demonstrate its applicability by investigating extreme gains and losses within the daily log-returns of the S&P 500 equity index. We find that the arrivals of extreme losses and gains are described by a common conditional intensity to which losses contribute twice as much as gains. However, the contribution of the former decays almost five times more quickly than that of the latter. We attribute these asymmetries to the different reactions of market traders to extreme upward and downward movements of asset prices: an example of negativity bias, wherein trauma is more salient than euphoria.Comment: 11 pages. 7 figures and 5 table

An exploratory application of machine learning methods to optimize prediction of responsiveness to digital interventions for eating disorder symptoms

Objective: Digital interventions show promise to address eating disorder (ED) symptoms. However, response rates are variable, and the ability to predict responsiveness to digital interventions has been poor. We tested whether machine learning (ML) techniques can enhance outcome predictions from digital interventions for ED symptoms. Method: Data were aggregated from three RCTs (n = 826) of self-guided digital interventions for EDs. Predictive models were developed for four key outcomes: uptake, adherence, drop-out, and symptom-level change. Seven ML techniques for classification were tested and compared against the generalized linear model (GLM). Results: The seven ML methods used to predict outcomes from 36 baseline variables were poor for the three engagement outcomes (AUCs = 0.48–0.52), but adequate for symptom-level change (R2 =.15–.40). ML did not offer an added benefit to the GLM. Incorporating intervention usage pattern data improved ML prediction accuracy for drop-out (AUC = 0.75–0.93) and adherence (AUC = 0.92–0.99). Age, motivation, symptom severity, and anxiety emerged as influential outcome predictors. Conclusion: A limited set of routinely measured baseline variables was not sufficient to detect a performance benefit of ML over traditional approaches. The benefits of ML may emerge when numerous usage pattern variables are modeled, although this validation in larger datasets before stronger conclusions can be made. © 2022 The Authors. International Journal of Eating Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals LLC