Impact of borehole depths on reconstructed estimates of ground surface temperature histories and energy storage

Estimates of ground surface temperature changes and continental energy storage from geothermal data have become well-accepted indicators of climatic changes. These estimates are independent contributions to the ensemble of paleoclimatic reconstructions and have been used for the validation of general circulation models, and as a component of the energy budget accounting of the global climate system. Recent global and hemispheric analyses of geothermal data were based on data available in the borehole paleoclimatology database, which contains subsurface temperature profiles from a minimum depth of 200 m to about 600 m. Because of the nature of heat conduction, different depth ranges contain the record of past and persistent changes in the energy balance between the lower atmosphere and the ground for different time periods. Here we examine the dependency of estimated ground surface temperature histories and the magnitude of the subsurface heat content on the depth of borehole temperature profiles. Our results show that uncertainties in the estimates of the long-term surface temperature are in the range of ±0.5K. We conclude that previous estimates of ground surface temperature change remain valid for the period since industrialization, but longer-term estimates are subject to considerable uncertainties. The subsurface heat content shows a larger range of variability arising from differences in depth of the borehole temperature profiles, as well as from differences in the time of data acquisition, spanning four decades. These results indicate that estimates of subsurface heat should be carried out with caution to decrease cumulative errors in any spatial analysis

Ground surface temperature and continental heat gain: uncertainties from underground

Temperature changes at the Earthʼs surface propagate and are recorded underground as perturbations to the equilibrium thermal regime associated with the heat flow from the Earthʼs interior. Borehole climatology is concerned with the analysis and interpretation of these downward propagating subsurface temperature anomalies in terms of surface climate. Proper determination of the steady-state geothermal regime is therefore crucial because it is the reference against which climate-induced subsurface temperature anomalies are estimated. Here, we examine the effects of data noise on the determination of the steady-state geothermal regime of the subsurface and the subsequent impact on estimates of ground surface temperature (GST) history and heat gain. We carry out a series of Monte Carlo experiments using 1000 Gaussian noise realizations and depth sections of 100 and 200 m as for steady-state estimates depth intervals, as well as a range of data sampling intervals from 10 m to 0.02 m. Results indicate that typical uncertainties for 50 year averages are on the order of ±0.02 K for the most recent 100 year period. These uncertainties grow with decreasing sampling intervals, reaching about ±0.1 K for a 10 m sampling interval under identical conditions and target period. Uncertainties increase for progressively older periods, reaching ±0.3 K at 500 years before present for a 10 m sampling interval. The uncertainties in reconstructed GST histories for the Northern Hemisphere for the most recent 50 year period can reach a maximum of ±0.5 K in some areas. We suggest that continuous logging should be the preferred approach when measuring geothermal data for climate reconstructions, and that for those using the International Heat Flow Commission database for borehole climatology, the steady-state thermal conditions should be estimated from boreholes as deep as possible and using a large fitting depth range (~100 m)

Spectral statistics of the quenched normal modes of a network-forming molecular liquid

We evaluate the density of states of the quenched normal modes of ST2 water, and their statistical fluctuations, for a range of densities spanning three regimes of behavior of a hydrogen bonded liquid: a lower-density regime of random tetrahedral network formation; in the vicinity of a liquid-liquid critical point; and in a higher-density regime of fragile glass-forming behavior. For all cases we find that the fluctuations around the mean spectral densities obey the predictions of the Gaussian orthogonal ensemble of random matrix theory. We also measure the participation ratio of the normal modes across the entire frequency range, and find behavior consistent with the majority of modes being of an extended nature, rather than localized.Comment: Accepted for publication in The Journal of Chemical Physic

Impact of maximum borehole depths on inverted temperature histories in borehole paleoclimatology

A quantitative assessment is presented for the impact of the maximum depth of a temperature-depth profile on the estimate of the climatic transient and the resultant ground surface temperature (GST) reconstruction used in borehole paleoclimatology. The depth of the profile is important because the downwelling climatic signal must be separated from the quasi-steady state thermal regime established by the energy in the Earth's interior. This component of the signal is estimated as a linear increase in temperature with depth from the lower section of a borehole temperature profile, which is assumed to be unperturbed by recent changes in climate at the surface. The validity of this assumption is dependent on both the subsurface thermophysical properties and the character of the downwelling climatic signal. Such uncertainties can significantly impact the determination of the quasi-steady state thermal regime, and consequently the magnitude of the temperature anomaly interpreted as a climatic signal. The quantitative effects and uncertainties that arise from the analysis of temperature-depth profiles of different depths are presented. Results demonstrate that widely different GST histories can be derived from a single temperature profile truncated at different depths. Borehole temperature measurements approaching 500-600 m depths are shown to provide the most robust GST reconstructions spanning 500 to 1000 yr BP. It is further shown that the bias introduced by a temperature profile of depths shallower than 500-600 m remains even if the time span of the reconstruction target is shortened

Impacts of the Last Glacial Cycle on ground surface temperature reconstructions over the last millennium

Borehole temperature profiles provide robust estimates of past ground surface temperature changes, in agreement with meteorological data. Nevertheless, past climatic changes such as the Last Glacial Cycle (LGC) generated thermal effects in the subsurface that affect estimates of recent climatic change from geothermal data. We use an ensemble of ice sheet simulations spanning the last 120 ka to assess the impact of the Laurentide Ice Sheet on recent ground surface temperature histories reconstructed from borehole temperature profiles over North America. When the thermal remnants of the LGC are removed, we find larger amounts of subsurface heat storage (2.8 times) and an increased warming of the ground surface over North America by 0.75 K, both relative to uncorrected borehole estimates