Simulating stakeholder-driven food and climate scenarios for policy development in Africa, Asia and Latin America A multi-regional synthesis

The CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) engaged stakeholders in Africa, Asia and Latin America in the development of regional socioeconomic scenarios for policy development. These scenarios were framed and outlined by regional experts and then quantified using the IMPACT and GLOBIOM models. The scenarios were used in a number of policy design processes at national and regional levels. The model results show that investment in agriculture is essential to close yield gaps needed for growing demand, and that increases in production costs increases these yield gaps. However, even under high agricultural investments, regional production is unlikely to meet regional demand. In many cases, the socio-economic assumptions of the scenarios are more impactful than climate effects on yields. Increased yields can lead to crop area expansion, and the protection and enforcement of forests and biodiversity is essential, especially with increased investment in agriculture. The CCAFS scenarios process show the need to combine socio-economic and climate scenarios, to base these scenarios in regional expertise, and ways to make scenarios useful for policy design

Application of Multi-Commodity Partial Equilibrium Model to Quantify the Welfare Benefits of Research

Most of the research evaluation and priority setting studies in the past are not likely to incorporate the cross-commodity effects in the estimation of welfare benefits since the cross-price elasticities are often unavailable and cross-commodity spillovers of technologies may be difficult to estimate. This paper also illustrates how the multi-commodity framework is suitable in addressing longer term trends in quantifying future welfare gains and their implications for resource allocation for dryland crops namely sorghum and groundnuts. To address these gaps, this paper will highlight the application of multi-commodity partial equilibrium model called International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) to estimate the welfare benefits of sorghum and groundnuts research. The modelling framework also integrates crop modelling suite, hydrology model, climate models and welfare analysis. This model will endogenously estimate the changes in the production, consumption and prices due to adoption of new productivity enhancing technologies and also estimate the changes in the other commodities demand, supply and prices through cross price elasticities effects

Risk of Climate-Related Impacts on Global Rangelands – A Review and Modelling Study

Climate change threatens the ability of global rangelands to provide food, support livelihoods and deliver important ecosystems services. The extent and magnitude of potential impacts are however poorly understood. In this study, we review the risk of climate impacts along the rangeland systems food supply chain. We also present results from biophysical modelling simulations and spatial data analyses to identify where and to what extent rangelands may be at climatic risk. Although a quantification of the net impacts of climate change on rangeland production systems is beyond the reach of our current understanding, there is strong evidence that there will be impacts throughout the supply chain, from feed and animal production to processing, storage, transport, retailing and human consumption. Regarding grazing biomass production, this study finds that mean herbaceous biomass is projected to decrease across global rangelands between 2000 and 2050 under RCP 8.5 (-4.7%), while inter- (year-to-year) and intra- (month-to-month) annual variabilities are projected to increase (+21.3% and +8.2%, respectively). These averaged global estimates mask large spatial heterogeneities, with 74% of global rangeland area projected to experience a decline in mean biomass, 64% an increase in inter-annual variability and 54% an increase in intra-annual variability. The potentially most damaging vegetation trends for livestock production (i.e., simultaneous decreases in mean biomass and increases in inter-annual variability) are projected to occur in rangeland communities that are currently the most vulnerable (here, with the lowest livestock productivities and economic development levels and with the highest projected increases in human population densities). Large uncertainties remain as to climate futures and the exposure and responses of the interlinked human and natural systems to climatic changes over time. Consequently, adaptation choices will need to build on robust methods of designing, implementing and evaluating detailed development pathways, and account for a wide range of possible futures

Ex-ante Impact Assessment of Drought Tolerant Sorghum Cultivars under Future Climates: Integrated Modeling approach

An integrated modeling framework – IMPACT – which integrates partial equilibrium economic model, hydrology model, crop simulation model and climate model was used to examine the ex-ante economic impact of developing and disseminating a drought tolerant sorghum cultivar in target countries of Africa and Asia. The impact of drought tolerant sorghum technology on production, consumption, trade flow and prices of sorghum in target and non-target countries were analyzed. And also we estimated the returns to research investment for developing the promising new drought tolerant cultivars and dissemination in the target countries. The analysis indicates that development and release of drought tolerant sorghum in the target countries of Asia and Africa would provide a net economic benefit of about 1476.8 million US$ for the entire world under no climate change condition. Under climate change scenarios the net benefits derived from adoption of new drought tolerant sorghum cultivar is higher than the no climate change condition. This is due to higher production realized by sorghum under climate change scenarios. The results imply that substantial economic benefits can be achieved from the development of a drought tolerant sorghum cultivar. And also this technology will perform better than the existing cultivars in future climate change condition

Exploring future agricultural development and biodiversity in Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi: a spatially explicit scenario-based assessment

Competition for land is increasing as a consequence of the growing demands for food and other commodities and the need to conserve biodiversity and ecosystem services. Land conversion and the intensification of current agricultural systems continues to lead to a loss of biodiversity and trade-offs among ecosystem functions. Decision-makers need to understand these trade-offs in order to better balance different demands on land and resources. There is an urgent need for spatially explicit information and analyses on the effects of different trajectories of human-induced landscape change in biodiversity and ecosystem services. We assess the potential implications of a set of plausible socio-economic and climate scenarios for agricultural production and demand and model-associated land use and land cover changes between 2005 and 2050 to assess potential impacts on biodiversity in Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi. We show that different future socio-economic scenarios are consistent in their projections of areas of high agricultural development leading to similar spatial patterns of habitat and biodiversity loss. Yet, we also show that without protected areas, biodiversity losses are higher and that expanding protected areas to include other important biodiversity areas can help reduce biodiversity losses in all three countries. These results highlight the need for effective protection and the potential benefits of expanding the protected area network while meeting agricultural production needs

Ex-ante Impact Assessment of Stay-Green Drought Tolerant Sorghum Cultivar under Future Climate Scenarios

Sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench] is grown in the hot and dry agro ecologies of Asia, Africa, the Americas and Australia. • It is globally the fifth most important cereal crop, and the dietary staple of more than 500 million people in 30 countries. • Improving the productivity of sorghum in marginal environments will help food insecure poor farmer families gain a large share of the potential food security benefit

Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways: Quantified West African food and climate futures in a global context

The climate change research community’s shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are a set of alternative global development scenarios focused on mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. To use these scenarios as a global context that is relevant for policy guidance at regional and national levels, they have to be connected to an exploration of drivers and challenges informed by regional expertise. In this paper, we present scenarios for West Africa developed by regional stakeholders and quantified using two global economic models, GLOBIOM and IMPACT, in interaction with stakeholder-generated narratives and scenario trends and SSP assumptions. We present this process as an example of linking comparable scenarios across levels to increase coherence with global contexts, while presenting insights about the future of agriculture and food security under a range of future drivers including climate change. In these scenarios, strong economic development increases food security and agricultural development. The latter increases crop and livestock productivity leading to an expansion of agricultural area within the region while reducing the land expansion burden elsewhere. In the context of a global economy, West Africa remains a large consumer and producer of a selection of commodities. However, the growth in population coupled with rising incomes leads to increases in the region’s imports. For West Africa, climate change is projected to have negative effects on both crop yields and grassland productivity, and a lack of investment may exacerbate these effects. Linking multi-stakeholder regional scenarios to the global SSPs ensures scenarios that are regionally appropriate and useful for policy development as evidenced in the case study, while allowing for a critical link to global contexts

The future of food security, environments and livelihoods in Western Africa. Four socio-economic scenarios. CCAFS Working Paper no. 130.

This working paper examines the development of regional socioeconomic scenarios for West Africa’s development, agriculture, food security and climate impacts. We present four globally consistent regional scenarios framed and outlined by regional experts who crafted narratives and determined key drivers of change. Stakeholders identified the type of actors driving change and the timeline of strategic planning as the most uncertain and most relevant factors of change affecting food security, livelihoods and environments in the region. The scenarios were linked to the IPCC community’s global Shared Socio-economic Pathways(SSPs) and quantified using two agricultural economic models, GLOBIOM and IMPACT, in interaction with drivers outlined by the SSPs and guided by semi-quantitative information from the stakeholders. The quantification of the scenarios has provided additional insights into the possible development of Western Africa in the context of a global economy as well as how the agricultural sector may be affected by climate change. The scenarios process highlights the need to combine socio-economic and climate scenarios, to base these scenarios in regional expertise, and ways to make scenarios useful for policy design. The objective of this working paper is to provide scenarios for future regional development for West Africa on the future of food security, environment, and rural livelihoods as well as offer details of the multi-stakeholder scenarios development process. Using both qualitative and quantitative scenarios we provide insights into the possible development of West Africa as well as a scalable framework for regional decision makers and the scientific community to use scenarios to build and test policies to make them more robust in the face of future uncertainty. In these scenarios, strong economic development increases food security and agricultural development. Increased crop and livestock productivity may lead to an expansion of agricultural areas within the region but productivity improvements may reduce the pressure on land elsewhere. In the context of a global economy, West Africa remains a large consumer and producer of a selection of commodities. However, the growth in population in combination with rising incomes may lead to increases in the region’s imports. For West Africa, climate change is likely to have negative effects on both crop yields and grassland productivity, and lack of investment in agriculture may exacerbate them. The aim of the regional scenarios is provide challenging contexts for policy makers to test and develop a range of national and regional policies. To date, the scenarios have been used in a number of policy design processes which include collaborations with ECOWAS priority setting, the National Plan for the Rural Sector for Burkina Faso (PNSR), and district and national level policy processes in Ghana

Bundling innovations to transform agri-food systems

Coupling technological advances with sociocultural and policy changes can transform agri-food systems to address pressing climate, economic, environmental, health and social challenges. An international expert panel reports on options to induce contextualized combinations of innovations that can balance multiple goals

Agricultural Investments and Hunger in Africa Modelling Potential Contributions to SDG 2 - Zero Hunger

We use IFPRI’s IMPACT framework of linked biophysical and structural economic models to examine developments in global agricultural production systems, climate change, and food security. Building on related work on how increased investment in agricultural research, resource management, and infrastructure can address the challenges of meeting future food demand, we explore the costs and implications of these investments for reducing hunger in Africa by 2030. This analysis is coupled with a new investment estimation model, based on the perpetual inventory methodology (PIM), which allows for a better assessment of the costs of achieving projected agricultural improvements. We find that climate change will continue to slow projected reductions in hunger in the coming decades—increasing the number of people at risk of hunger in 2030 by 16 million in Africa compared to a scenario without climate change. Investments to increase agricultural productivity can offset the adverse impacts of climate change and help reduce the share of people at risk of hunger in 2030 to five percent or less in Northern, Western, and Southern Africa, but the share is projected to remain at ten percent or more in Eastern and Central Africa. Investments in Africa to achieve these results are estimated to cost about 15 billion USD per year between 2015 and 2030, as part of a larger package of investments costing around 52 billion USD in developing countries