Risk factors for service use and trends in coverage of different HIV testing and counselling models in northwest Tanzania between 2003 and 2010.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the relative effectiveness of different HIV testing and counselling (HTC) services in improving HIV diagnosis rates and increasing HTC coverage in African settings. METHODS: Patient records from three HTC services [community outreach HTC during cohort study rounds (CO-HTC), walk-in HTC at the local health centre (WI-HTC) and antenatal HIV testing (ANC-HTC)] were linked to records from a community cohort study using a probabilistic record linkage algorithm. Characteristics of linked users of each HTC service were compared to those of cohort participants who did not use the HTC service using logistic regression. Data from three cohort study rounds between 2003 and 2010 were used to assess trends in the proportion of persons testing at different service types. RESULTS: The adjusted odds ratios for HTC use among men with increasing numbers of sexual partners in the past year, and among HIV-positive men and women compared to HIV-negative men and women, were higher at WI-HTC than at CO-HTC and ANC-HTC. Among sero-survey participants, the largest numbers of HIV-positive men and women learned their status via CO-HTC. However, we are likely to have underestimated the numbers diagnosed at WI-HTC and ANC-HTC, due to low sensitivity of the probabilistic record linkage algorithm. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to CO-HTC or ANC-HTC, WI-HTC was most likely to attract HIV-positive men and women, and to attract men with greater numbers of sexual partners. Further research should aim to optimise probabilistic record linkage techniques, and to investigate which types of HTC services most effectively link HIV-positive people to treatment services relative to the total cost per diagnosis made

Uptake of services for prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV in a community cohort in rural Tanzania from 2005 to 2012.

BACKGROUND: Estimates of population-level coverage with prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) services are vital for monitoring programmes but are rarely undertaken. This study describes uptake of PMTCT services among HIV-positive pregnant women in a community cohort in rural Tanzania. METHODS: Kisesa cohort incorporates demographic and HIV sero-surveillance rounds since 1994. Cohort data were linked retrospectively to records from four Kisesa clinics with PMTCT services from 2009 (HIV care and treatment clinic (CTC) available in one facility from 2008; referrals to city hospitals for PMTCT and antiretroviral treatment (ART) from 2005). The proportion of HIV-positive pregnant women residing in Kisesa in 2005-2012 who accessed PMTCT service components (based on linkage to facility records) was calculated per HIV-positive pregnancy and by year, with adjustments made to account for the sensitivity of the linkage algorithm. RESULTS: Out of 1497 HIV-positive pregnancies overall (to 849 women), 26% (n = 387/1497) were not linked to any facility records, 35% (n = 519/1497) registered for ANC but not HIV services (29% (n = 434/1497) were not tested at ANC or diagnosed previously), 8% (n = 119/1497) enrolled in PMTCT but not CTC services (6 % (n = 95/1497) received antiretroviral prophylaxis), and 32% (n = 472/1497) registered for CTC (14% (n = 204/1497) received ART or prophylaxis) (raw estimates). Adjusted estimates for coverage with ANC were 92%, 57% with HIV care, and 29 % with antiretroviral drugs in 2005-2012, trending upwards over time. CONCLUSIONS: Population-level coverage with PMTCT services was low overall, with weaknesses throughout the service continuum, but increased over time. Option B+ should improve coverage with antiretrovirals for PMTCT through simplified decisions for initiating ART, but will rely on strengthening access to CTC services

Trends in antimicrobial resistance in bloodstream infection isolates at a large urban hospital in Malawi (1998-2016): a surveillance study.

BACKGROUND Bacterial bloodstream infection is a common cause of morbidity and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa, yet few facilities are able to maintain long-term surveillance. The Malawi-Liverpool-Wellcome Trust Clinical Research Programme has done sentinel surveillance of bacteraemia since 1998. We report long-term trends in bloodstream infection and antimicrobial resistance from this surveillance. METHODS In this surveillance study, we analysed blood cultures that were routinely taken from adult and paediatric patients with fever or suspicion of sepsis admitted to Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre, Malawi from 1998 to 2016. The hospital served an urban population of 920 000 in 2016, with 1000 beds, although occupancy often exceeds capacity. The hospital admits about 10 000 adults and 30 000 children each year. Antimicrobial susceptibility tests were done by the disc diffusion method according to British Society of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy guidelines. We used the Cochran-Armitage test for trend to examine trends in rates of antimicrobial resistance, and negative binomial regression to examine trends in icidence of bloodstream infection over time. FINDINGS Between Jan 1, 1998, and Dec 31, 2016, we isolated 29 183 pathogens from 194 539 blood cultures. Pathogen detection decreased significantly from 327·1/100 000 in 1998 to 120·2/100 000 in 2016 (p<0·0001). 13 366 (51·1%) of 26 174 bacterial isolates were resistant to the Malawian first-line antibiotics amoxicillin or penicillin, chloramphenicol, and co-trimoxazole; 68·3% of Gram-negative and 6·6% of Gram-positive pathogens. The proportions of non-Salmonella Enterobacteriaceae with extended spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL) or fluoroquinolone resistance rose significantly after 2003 to 61·9% in 2016 (p<0·0001). Between 2003 and 2016, ESBL resistance rose from 0·7% to 30·3% in Escherichia coli, from 11·8% to 90·5% in Klebsiella spp and from 30·4% to 71·9% in other Enterobacteriaceae. Similarly, resistance to ciprofloxacin rose from 2·5% to 31·1% in E coli, from 1·7% to 70·2% in Klebsiella spp and from 5·9% to 68·8% in other Enterobacteriaceae. By contrast, more than 92·0% of common Gram-positive pathogens remain susceptible to either penicillin or chloramphenicol. Meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) was first reported in 1998 at 7·7% and represented 18·4% of S aureus isolates in 2016. INTERPRETATION The rapid expansion of ESBL and fluoroquinolone resistance among common Gram-negative pathogens, and the emergence of MRSA, highlight the growing challenge of bloodstream infections that are effectively impossible to treat in this resource-limited setting. FUNDING Wellcome Trust, H3ABionet, Southern Africa Consortium for Research Excellence (SACORE)

Long-term biological and behavioural impact of an adolescent sexual health intervention in Tanzania: follow-up survey of the community-based MEMA kwa Vijana Trial.

BACKGROUND: The ability of specific behaviour-change interventions to reduce HIV infection in young people remains questionable. Since January 1999, an adolescent sexual and reproductive health (SRH) intervention has been implemented in ten randomly chosen intervention communities in rural Tanzania, within a community randomised trial (see below; NCT00248469). The intervention consisted of teacher-led, peer-assisted in-school education, youth-friendly health services, community activities, and youth condom promotion and distribution. Process evaluation in 1999-2002 showed high intervention quality and coverage. A 2001/2 intervention impact evaluation showed no impact on the primary outcomes of HIV seroincidence and herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) seroprevalence but found substantial improvements in SRH knowledge, reported attitudes, and some reported sexual behaviours. It was postulated that the impact on "upstream" knowledge, attitude, and reported behaviour outcomes seen at the 3-year follow-up would, in the longer term, lead to a reduction in HIV and HSV-2 infection rates and other biological outcomes. A further impact evaluation survey in 2007/8 ( approximately 9 years post-intervention) tested this hypothesis. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This is a cross-sectional survey (June 2007 through July 2008) of 13,814 young people aged 15-30 y who had attended trial schools during the first phase of the MEMA kwa Vijana intervention trial (1999-2002). Prevalences of the primary outcomes HIV and HSV-2 were 1.8% and 25.9% in males and 4.0% and 41.4% in females, respectively. The intervention did not significantly reduce risk of HIV (males adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR] 0.91, 95%CI 0.50-1.65; females aPR 1.07, 95%CI 0.68-1.67) or HSV-2 (males aPR 0.94, 95%CI 0.77-1.15; females aPR 0.96, 95%CI 0.87-1.06). The intervention was associated with a reduction in the proportion of males reporting more than four sexual partners in their lifetime (aPR 0.87, 95%CI 0.78-0.97) and an increase in reported condom use at last sex with a non-regular partner among females (aPR 1.34, 95%CI 1.07-1.69). There was a clear and consistent beneficial impact on knowledge, but no significant impact on reported attitudes to sexual risk, reported pregnancies, or other reported sexual behaviours. The study population was likely to have been, on average, at lower risk of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections compared to other rural populations, as only youth who had reached year five of primary school were eligible. CONCLUSIONS: SRH knowledge can be improved and retained long-term, but this intervention had only a limited effect on reported behaviour and no significant effect on HIV/STI prevalence. Youth interventions integrated within intensive, community-wide risk reduction programmes may be more successful and should be evaluated. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT0024846

Incidence of HIV-positive admission and inpatient mortality in Malawi (2012-2019).

OBJECTIVE: To investigate trends in population incidence of HIV-positive hospital admission and risk of in-hospital death among adults living with HIV between 2012 and 2019 in Blantyre, Malawi. DESIGN: Population cohort study using an existing electronic health information system ('SPINE') at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital and Blantyre census data. METHODS: We used multiple imputation and negative binomial regression to estimate population age-specific and sex-specific admission rates over time. We used a log-binomial model to investigate trends in risk of in-hospital death. RESULTS: Of 32 814 adult medical admissions during Q4 2012--Q3 2019, HIV status was recorded for 75.6%. HIV-positive admissions decreased substantially between 2012 and 2019. After imputation for missing data, HIV-positive admissions were highest in Q3 2013 (173 per 100 000 adult Blantyre residents) and lowest in Q3 2019 (53 per 100 000 residents). An estimated 10 818 fewer than expected people with HIV (PWH) [95% confidence interval (CI) 10 068-11 568] were admitted during 2012-2019 compared with the counterfactual situation where admission rates stayed the same throughout this period. Absolute reductions were greatest for women aged 25-34 years (2264 fewer HIV-positive admissions, 95% CI 2002-2526). In-hospital mortality for PWH was 23.5%, with no significant change over time in any age-sex group, and no association with antiretroviral therapy (ART) use at admission. CONCLUSION: Rates of admission for adult PWH decreased substantially, likely because of large increases in community provision of HIV diagnosis, treatment and care. However, HIV-positive in-hospital deaths remain unacceptably high, despite improvements in ART coverage. A concerted research and implementation agenda is urgently needed to reduce inpatient deaths among PWH

Improving care pathways for children with severe illness through implementation of the ASPIRE mHealth primary ETAT package in Malawi

Providing emergency care in low resource settings relies on delivery by lower cadres of health workers (LCHW). We describe the development, implementation and mixed methods evaluation of a mobile health (mHealth) triage algorithm based on the WHO Emergency, Triage, Assessment, and Treatment (ETAT) for primary-level care. We conducted an observational study design of implementation research. Key stakeholders were engaged throughout implementation. Clinicians and LCHW at eight primary health centres in Blantyre district were trained to use an mHealth algorithm for triage. An mHealth patient surveillance system monitored patients from presentation through referral to tertiary and final outcome. A total of 209,174 children were recorded by ETAT between April 2017 and September 2018, and 155,931 had both recorded mHealth and clinician triage outcome data. Concordance between mHealth triage by lower cadres of HCW and clinician assessment was 81·6% (95% CI [81·4, 81·8]) over all outcomes (kappa: 0·535 (95% CI [0·530, 0·539]). Concordance for mHealth emergency triage was 0.31 with kappa 0.42. The most common mHealth recorded emergency sign was breathing difficulty (74·1% 95% CI [70·1, 77·9]) and priority sign was raised temperature (76·2% (95% CI [75·9, 76·6]). A total of 1,644 referrals out of 3,004 (54·7%) successfully reached the tertiary site. Both providers and carers expressed high levels of satisfaction with the mHealth ETAT pathway. An mHealth triage algorithm can be used by LCHWs with moderate concordance with clinician triage. Implementation of ETAT through an mHealth algorithm documented successful referrals from primary to tertiary, but half of referred patients did not reach the tertiary site. Potential harms of such systems, such as cases requiring referral being missed during triage, require further evaluation. The ASPIRE mHealth primary ETAT approach can be used to prioritise acute illness and support future resource planning within both district and national health system

Informing prevention of stillbirth and preterm birth in Malawi:development of a minimum dataset for health facilities participating in the DIPLOMATIC collaboration

OBJECTIVE: The global research group, DIPLOMATIC (Using eviDence, Implementation science, and a clinical trial PLatform to Optimise MATernal and newborn health in low Income Countries), aims to reduce stillbirths and preterm births and optimise outcomes for babies born preterm. Minimum datasets for routine data collection in healthcare facilities participating in DIPLOMATIC (initially in Malawi) were designed to assist understanding of baseline maternal and neonatal care processes and outcomes, and facilitate evaluation of improvement interventions and pragmatic clinical trials. DESIGN: Published and grey literature was reviewed alongside extensive in-country consultation to define relevant clinical best practice guidance, and the existing local data and reporting infrastructure, to identify requirements for the minimum datasets. Data elements were subjected to iterative rounds of consultation with topic experts in Malawi and Scotland, the relevant Malawian professional bodies and the Ministry of Health in Malawi to ensure relevance, validity and feasibility. SETTING: Antenatal, maternity and specialist neonatal care in Malawi. RESULTS: The resulting three minimum datasets cover the maternal and neonatal healthcare journey for antenatal, maternity and specialist neonatal care, with provision for effective linkage of records for mother/baby pairs. They can facilitate consistent, precise recording of relevant outcomes (stillbirths, preterm births, neonatal deaths), risk factors and key care processes. CONCLUSIONS: Poor quality routine data on care processes and outcomes constrain healthcare system improvement. The datasets developed for implementation in DIPLOMATIC partner facilities reflect, and hence support delivery of, internationally agreed best practice for maternal and newborn care in low-income settings. Informed by extensive consultation, they are designed to integrate with existing local data infrastructure and reporting as well as meeting research data needs. This work provides a transferable example of strengthening data infrastructure to underpin a learning healthcare system approach in low-income settings.DIPLOMATIC is funded by the UK National Institute for Health Research

Direct inference and control of genetic population structure from RNA sequencing data

RNAseq data can be used to infer genetic variants, yet its use for estimating genetic population structure remains underexplored. Here, we construct a freely available computational tool (RGStraP) to estimate RNAseq-based genetic principal components (RG-PCs) and assess whether RG-PCs can be used to control for population structure in gene expression analyses. Using whole blood samples from understudied Nepalese populations and the Geuvadis study, we show that RG-PCs had comparable results to paired array-based genotypes, with high genotype concordance and high correlations of genetic principal components, capturing subpopulations within the dataset. In differential gene expression analysis, we found that inclusion of RG-PCs as covariates reduced test statistic inflation. Our paper demonstrates that genetic population structure can be directly inferred and controlled for using RNAseq data, thus facilitating improved retrospective and future analyses of transcriptomic data

Safety and Efficacy of a Typhoid Conjugate Vaccine in Malawian Children

BACKGROUND Typhoid fever caused by multidrug-resistant H58 Salmonella Typhi is an increasing public health threat in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS We conducted a phase 3, double-blind trial in Blantyre, Malawi, to assess the efficacy of Vi polysaccharide typhoid conjugate vaccine (Vi-TCV). We randomly assigned children who were between 9 months and 12 years of age, in a 1:1 ratio, to receive a single dose of Vi-TCV or meningococcal capsular group A conjugate (MenA) vaccine. The primary outcome was typhoid fever confirmed by blood culture. We report vaccine efficacy and safety outcomes after 18 to 24 months of follow-up. RESULTS The intention-to-treat analysis included 28,130 children, of whom 14,069 were assigned to receive Vi-TCV and 14,061 were assigned to receive the MenA vaccine. Blood culture–confirmed typhoid fever occurred in 12 children in the Vi-TCV group (46.9 cases per 100,000 person-years) and in 62 children in the MenA group (243.2 cases per 100,000 person-years). Overall, the efficacy of Vi-TCV was 80.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 64.2 to 89.6) in the intention-to-treat analysis and 83.7% (95% CI, 68.1 to 91.6) in the per-protocol analysis. In total, 130 serious adverse events occurred in the first 6 months after vaccination (52 in the Vi-TCV group and 78 in the MenA group), including 6 deaths (all in the MenA group). No serious adverse events were considered by the investigators to be related to vaccination. CONCLUSIONS Among Malawian children 9 months to 12 years of age, administration of Vi-TCV resulted in a lower incidence of blood culture–confirmed typhoid fever than the MenA vaccine. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03299426

Direct inference and control of genetic population structure from RNA sequencing data

RNAseq data can be used to infer genetic variants, yet its use for estimating genetic population structure remains underexplored. Here, we construct a freely available computational tool (RGStraP) to estimate RNAseq-based genetic principal components (RG-PCs) and assess whether RG-PCs can be used to control for population structure in gene expression analyses. Using whole blood samples from understudied Nepalese populations and the Geuvadis study, we show that RG-PCs had comparable results to paired array-based genotypes, with high genotype concordance and high correlations of genetic principal components, capturing subpopulations within the dataset. In differential gene expression analysis, we found that inclusion of RG-PCs as covariates reduced test statistic inflation. Our paper demonstrates that genetic population structure can be directly inferred and controlled for using RNAseq data, thus facilitating improved retrospective and future analyses of transcriptomic data