State-Dependent Probability Distributions in Non Linear Rational Expectations Models

In this paper, we provide solution methods for non-linear rational expectations models in which regime-switching or the shocks themselves may be "endogenous", i.e. follow state-dependent probability distributions. We use the perturbation approach to find determinacy conditions, i.e. conditions for the existence of a unique stable equilibrium. We show that these conditions directly follow from the corresponding conditions in the exogenous regime-switching model. Whereas these conditions are difficult to check in the general case, we provide for easily verifiable and sufficient determinacy conditions and first-order approximation of the solution for purely forward-looking models. Finally, we illustrate our results with a Fisherian model of inflation determination in which the monetary policy rule may change across regimes according to a state-dependent transition probability matrix.Perturbation methods, monetary policy, indeterminacy, regime switching, DSGE.

Method and apparatus for determining return stroke polarity of distant lightning

A method is described for determining the return stroke polarity of distant lightning for distances beyond 600 km by detecting the electric field associated with a return stroke of distant lightning, and processing the electric field signal to determine the polarity of the slow tail of the VLF waveform signal associated with the detected electric field. The polarity of the return stroke of distant lightning is determined based upon the polarity of the slow tail portion of the waveform

Trends and Cycles : an Historical Review of the Euro Area.

We analyze the euro area business cycle in a medium scale DSGE model where we assume two stochastic trends: one on total factor productivity and one on the inflation target of the central bank. To justify our choice of integrated trends, we test alternative specifications for both of them. We do so, estimating trends together with the model's structural parameters, to prevent estimation biases. In our estimates, business cycle fluctuations are dominated by investment specific shocks and preference shocks of households. Our results cast doubts on the view that cost push shocks dominate economic fluctuations in DSGE models and show that productivity shocks drive fluctuations on a longer term. As a conclusion, we present our estimation's historical reading of the business cycle in the euro area. This estimation gives credible explanations of major economic events since 1985.New Keynesian model, Business Cycle, Bayesian estimation.

Alternative axiomatics and complexity of deliberative STIT theories

We propose two alternatives to Xu's axiomatization of the Chellas STIT. The first one also provides an alternative axiomatization of the deliberative STIT. The second one starts from the idea that the historic necessity operator can be defined as an abbreviation of operators of agency, and can thus be eliminated from the logic of the Chellas STIT. The second axiomatization also allows us to establish that the problem of deciding the satisfiability of a STIT formula without temporal operators is NP-complete in the single-agent case, and is NEXPTIME-complete in the multiagent case, both for the deliberative and the Chellas' STIT.Comment: Submitted to the Journal of Philosophical Logic; 13 pages excluding anne

Recovering from a bad start: rapid adaptation and tradeoffs to growth below a threshold density

Background: Bacterial growth in well-mixed culture is often assumed to be an autonomous process only depending upon the external conditions under control of the investigator. However, increasingly there is awareness that interactions between cells in culture can lead to surprising phenomena such as density-dependence in the initiation of growth. Results: Here I report the unexpected discovery of a density threshold for growth of a strain of Methylobacterium extorquens AM1 used to inoculate eight replicate populations that were evolved in methanol. Six of these populations failed to grow to the expected full density during the first couple transfers. Remarkably, the final cell number of six populations crashed to levels 60- to 400-fold smaller than their cohorts. Five of these populations recovered to full density soon after, but one population remained an order of magnitude smaller for over one hundred generations. These variable dynamics appeared to be due to a density threshold for growth that was specific to both this particular ancestral strain and to growth on methanol. When tested at full density, this population had become less fit than its ancestor. Simply increasing the initial dilution 16-fold reversed this result, revealing that this population had more than a 3-fold advantage when tested at this lower density. As this population evolved and ultimately recovered to the same final density range as the other populations this low-density advantage waned. Conclusions: These results demonstrate surprisingly strong tradeoffs during adaptation to growth at low absolute densities that manifest over just a 16-fold change in density. Capturing laboratory examples of transitions to and from growth at low density may help us understand the physiological and evolutionary forces that have led to the unusual properties of natural bacteria that have specialized to low-density environments such as the open ocean.Organismic and Evolutionary Biolog

Can You Sequence Ecology? Metagenomics of Adaptive Diversification

Few areas of science have benefited more from the expansion in sequencing capability than the study of microbial communities. Can sequence data, besides providing hypotheses of the functions the members possess, detect the evolutionary and ecological processes that are occurring? For example, can we determine if a species is adapting to one niche, or if it is diversifying into multiple specialists that inhabit distinct niches? Fortunately, adaptation of populations in the laboratory can serve as a model to test our ability to make such inferences about evolution and ecology from sequencing. Even adaptation to a single niche can give rise to complex temporal dynamics due to the transient presence of multiple competing lineages. If there are multiple niches, this complexity is augmented by segmentation of the population into multiple specialists that can each continue to evolve within their own niche. For a known example of parallel diversification that occurred in the laboratory, sequencing data gave surprisingly few obvious, unambiguous signs of the ecological complexity present. Whereas experimental systems are open to direct experimentation to test hypotheses of selection or ecological interaction, the difficulty in “seeing ecology” from sequencing for even such a simple system suggests translation to communities like the human microbiome will be quite challenging. This will require both improved empirical methods to enhance the depth and time resolution for the relevant polymorphisms and novel statistical approaches to rigorously examine time-series data for signs of various evolutionary and ecological phenomena within and between species.Organismic and Evolutionary Biolog