A Brand New CROLEI: Do We Need a New Forecasting Index?

The aim of this paper is to determine whether the existing leading indicators system CROLEI (CROatian Leading Economic Indicators) and its derivative, the CROLEI forecasting index, predict overall Croatian economic activity reliably. The need to evaluate the CROLEI system and the index stems from the modification of the barometric method on which the system and the index are founded on in its application in Croatia. The evaluation of the forecasting power involved the construction of six alternative forecasting indices, which not only challenge the original CROLEI index, but also enable comparisons of forecasting power. The construction of the alternative forecasting indices is also based on the barometric method. The authors then proceed to adjust more complex measurements i.e. forecasting power evaluation matrix, in order to obtain credible forecasting power estimates. Forecasting power is also estimated using two regression models that allow for the forecasting of reference series and yield measurements of forecasting power. The results of both approaches indicate not only that the original CROLEI has by far the greatest forecasting power, but also that it is able to predict the turning points in the economic cycle with the highest probability.CROLEI (CROatian Leading Economic Indicators), forecasting indicator,barometric method, signaling method

Social Transitions Cause Rapid Behavioral and Neuroendocrine Changes

© 2015 The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Integrative and Comparative Biology. All rights reserved. In species that form dominance hierarchies, there are often opportunities for low-ranking individuals to challenge high-ranking ones, resulting in a rise or fall in social rank. How does an animal rapidly detect, process, and then respond to these social transitions? This article explores and summarizes how these social transitions can rapidly (within 24 h) impact an individual\u27s behavior, physiology, and brain, using the African cichlid fish, Astatotilapia burtoni, as a model. Male A. burtoni form hierarchies in which a few brightly-colored dominant males defend territories and spawn with females, while the remaining males are subordinate, more drab-colored, do not hold a territory, and have minimal opportunities for reproduction. These social phenotypes are plastic and reversible, meaning that individual males may switch between dominant and subordinate status multiple times within a lifetime. When the social environment is manipulated to create males that either ascend (subordinate to dominant) or descend (dominant to subordinate) in rank, there are rapid changes in behavior, circulating hormones, and levels of gene expression in the brain that reflect the direction of transition. For example, within minutes, males ascending in status show bright coloration, a distinct eye-bar, increased dominance behaviors, activation of brain nuclei in the social behavior network, and higher levels of sex steroids in the plasma. Ascending males also show rapid changes in levels of neuropeptide and steroid receptors in the brain, as well as in the pituitary and testes. To further examine hormone-behavior relationships in this species during rapid social ascent, the present study also measured levels of testosterone, 11-ketotestosterone, estradiol, progestins, and cortisol in the plasma during the first week of social ascent and tested for correlations with behavior. Plasma levels of all steroids were rapidly increased at 30 min after social ascent, but were not correlated with behavior during the initial rise in rank, suggesting that behavior is dissociated from endocrine status. These changes during social ascent are then compared with our current knowledge about males descending in rank, who rapidly show faded coloration, decreased dominance behaviors, increased subordinate behaviors, and higher circulating levels of cortisol. Collectively, this work highlights how the perception of similar social cues that are opposite in value are rapidly translated into adaptive behavioral and neuroendocrine changes that promote survival and reproductive fitness. Finally, future directions are proposed to better understand the mechanisms that govern these rapid changes in social position

The Difficulties for a Small Business in Obtaining Commercial Bank Loans During a Recession

This study examines why it is very difficult for a small business to obtain commercial bank loans during a recession. The methodology consisted of examining other research and writings, interviewing sources, and conducting a survey of small businesses. the study discussed the pre-financing preparation of a small business. Aspects of commercial bank financing are discussed, including: description of debt financing, the process for obtaining loans, and problems facing the commercial banking industry. A brief description is given of recessionary conditions and how economic indicators are used to describe those conditions. Various issue concerning financing a small business during a recession are explored. Title contract financing is presented as a method of financing which is an alternative to commercial bank financing. Small business survey seeks to find how various small businesses finance themselves throughout the life of the business. the survey also asks what impact the present recession has had on the respondent\u27s business. Conclusions include: it is much more difficult to finance a small business with commercial bank loans during a recession, commercial banks are getting out of lending to small businesses, and new methods for financing small businesses are needed

LA REVOCATORIA FALLIMENTARE. ANALISI DI UN CASO CONCRETO.

La revocatoria fallimentare: revocabilità delle rimesse in conto corrente bancario alla luce della riforma organica della legge fallimentare. Un caso concreto: l'analisi di bilancio come strumento per la prova della conoscenza dello stato d'insolvenza; proposte di elaborazione delle rimesse di conto corrente

Social regulation of reproduction in male cichlid fishes

© 2014 Elsevier Inc. Social interactions and relative positions within a dominance hierarchy have helped shape the evolution of reproduction in many animals. Since reproduction is crucial in all animals, and rank typically regulates access to reproductive opportunities, understanding the mechanisms that regulate socially-induced reproductive processes is extremely important. How does position in a dominance hierarchy impact an individual\u27s reproductive behavior, morphology, and physiology? Teleost fishes, and cichlids in particular, are ideally-suited models for studying how social status influences reproduction on multiple levels of biological organization. Here I review the current knowledge on the reproductive behavioral and physiological consequences of relative position in a dominance hierarchy, with a particular focus on male cichlids. Dominant and subordinate social status is typically associated with distinct differences in activity along the entire hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal axis. Further, when transitions in social status occur between subordinate and dominant individuals, there are plastic changes from whole-organism behavior to molecular-level gene expression modifications that occur quickly. These rapid changes in behavior and physiology have allowed cichlids the flexibility to adapt to and thrive in their often dynamic physical and social environments. Studies in cichlid fishes have, and will continue, to advance our understanding of how the social environment can modulate molecular, cellular, and behavioral outcomes relevant to reproductive success. Future studies that take advantage of the extreme diversity in mating systems, reproductive tactics, and parental care strategies within the cichlid group will help generate hypotheses and careful experimental tests on the mechanisms governing the social control of reproduction in many vertebrates

Analysis of the influence of dienitro on co and nox emissions in diesel public transport buses with egr and scr systems

Transport of people and goods has always been associated with the generation of some pollution, whether atmospheric, sound or visual. Managing the urban environment presents a major challenge: preserving environmental resources and also ensuring decent living conditions for the current population and for future generations. In the era of motorized and carbonized transport, vehicles are the main source of emission of atmospheric pollutants, mainly in large urban centers and important precursors of ozone. An important advance in minimizing vehicle emissions was the introduction of cleaner and additive fuels into the Brazilian market. The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of the use of 0.15% dienitro on S50 Diesel in engines with EGR (Exhaust Gas Recirculation) and S10 Diesel in engines with SCR (Selective Catalytic Reduction) and EGR system. The tests were performed with a gas analyzer directly on the exhaust of vehicles with engine speed of 1300 rpm. Results show CO emission reductions of 72.8, 37.9, 15.7% and NOx emission reductions of 48.0, 48.5 and 31.0%, respectively for the S50 EGR, S10 SCR and S10 EGR system. This additive has a slight increase of 1 or 1.5 points in cetane number, low vaporization enthalpy (energy to vaporize) and high combustion enthalpy, ie, Dienitro increased cetane number, faciliting the start of combustion and reducing CO. On the other hand, a fuel that releases less energy during combustion consequently produces lower temperatures within the combustion chamber, ie additives with lower combustion enthalpy have lower NOx emissions

Directional sound sensitivity in utricular afferents in the toadfish Opsanus tau

© 2015 Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd. The inner ear of fishes contains three paired otolithic end organs, the saccule, lagena and utricle, which function as biological accelerometers. The saccule is the largest otolith in most fishes and much of our current understanding on auditory function in this diverse group of vertebrates is derived from anatomical and neurophysiological studies on this end organ. In contrast, less is known about how the utricle contributes to auditory functions. In this study, chronically implanted electrodes were used, along with neural telemetry or tethers to record primary afferent responses from the utricular nerve in free-ranging and naturally behaving oyster toadfish Opsanus tau Linnaeus. The hypothesis was that the utricle plays a role in detecting underwater sounds, including conspecific vocalizations, and exhibits directional sensitivity. Utricular afferents responded best to low frequency (80-200 Hz) pure tones and to playbacks of conspecific boatwhistles and grunts (80-180 Hz fundamental frequency), with the majority of the units (∼75%) displaying a clear, directional response, which may allow the utricle to contribute to sound detection and localization during social interactions. Responses were well within the sound intensity levels of toadfish vocalization (approximately 140 SPL dBrms re. 1 μPa with fibers sensitive to thresholds of approximately 120 SPL dBrms re. 1 μPa). Neurons were also stimulated by self-generated body movements such as opercular movements and swimming. This study is the first to investigate underwater sound-evoked response properties of primary afferents from the utricle of an unrestrained/ unanesthetized free-swimming teleost fish. These data provide experimental evidence that the utricle has an auditory function, and can contribute to directional hearing to facilitate sound localization

Mechanosensory signaling as a potential mode of communication during social interactions in fishes

© 2016. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd. Signals produced during social interactions convey crucial information about the sender\u27s identity, quality, reproductive state and social status. Fishes can detect near-body water movements via the mechanosensory lateral line system, and this sense is used during several common fish behaviors, such as schooling, rheotaxis and predator-prey interactions. In addition, many fish behaviors, such as aggressive lateral displays and reproductive body quivers, involve fin and body motions that generate water movements that can be detected by the lateral line system of nearby fish. This mechanosensory system is well studied for its role in obstacle avoidance and detection of inadvertent hydrodynamic cues generated during schooling and predator-prey interactions; however, little research has focused on the role of mechanosensory communication during social interactions. Here, we summarize the current literature on the use of mechanosensation-mediated behaviors during agonistic and reproductive encounters, as well as during parental care. Based on these studies, we hypothesize that mechanosensory signaling is an important but often overlooked mode of communication during conspecific social interactions in many fish species, and we highlight its importance during multimodal communication. Finally, we suggest potential avenues of future research that would allow us to better understand the role of mechanosensation in fish communication

Male dominance status regulates odor-evoked processing in the forebrain of a cichlid fish

© 2019, The Author(s). The ability to identify odors in the environment is crucial for survival and reproduction. However, whether olfactory processing in higher-order brain centers is influenced by an animal’s physiological condition is unknown. We used in vivo neuron and local field potential (LFP) recordings from the ventral telencephalon of dominant and subordinate male cichlids to test the hypothesis that response properties of olfactory neurons differ with social status. Dominant males had a high percentage of neurons that responded to several odor types, suggesting broad tuning or differential sensitivity when males are reproductively active and defending a territory. A greater percentage of neurons in dominant males also responded to sex- and food-related odors, while a greater percentage of neurons in subordinate males responded to complex odors collected from behaving dominant males, possibly as a mechanism to mediate social suppression and allow subordinates to identify opportunities to rise in rank. Odor-evoked LFP spectral densities, indicative of synaptic inputs, were also 2–3-fold greater in dominant males, demonstrating status-dependent differences in processing possibly linking olfactory and other neural inputs to goal-directed behaviors. For the first time we reveal social and reproductive-state plasticity in olfactory processing neurons in the vertebrate forebrain that are associated with status-specific lifestyles