Reclassifying historical disasters: from single to multi-hazards

EGU General Assembly 2024, Session NH10.1.Multi-hazard events, characterized by the simultaneous, cascading, or cumulative occurrence of multiple natural hazards, pose a significant threat to human lives and assets. This is primarily due to the cumulative and cascading effects arising from the interplay of various natural hazards across space and time. However, their identification is challenging, which is attributable to the complex nature of natural hazard interactions and the limited availability of multi-hazard observations. This presentation, focused on a recently published article in Science of the Total Environment (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169120), presents an approach for identifying multi-hazard events during the past 123 years (1900-2023) using the EM-DAT global disaster database. Leveraging the ‘associated hazard’ information in EM-DAT, multi-hazard events are detected and assessed in relation to their frequency, impact on human lives and assets, and reporting trends. The interactions between various combinations of natural hazard pairs are explored, reclassifying them into four categories: preconditioned/triggering, multivariate, temporally compounding, and spatially compounding multi-hazard events. The results show, globally, approximately 19% of the 16,535 disasters recorded in EM-DAT can be classified as multi-hazard events. However, the multi-hazard events recorded in EM-DAT are disproportionately responsible for nearly 59% of the estimated global economic losses. Conversely, single hazard events resulted in higher fatalities compared to multi-hazard events. The largest proportion of multi-hazard events are associated with floods, storms, and earthquakes. Landslides emerge as the predominant secondary hazards within multi-hazard pairs, primarily triggered by floods, storms, and earthquakes, with the majority of multi-hazard events exhibiting preconditioned/triggering and multivariate characteristics. There is a higher prevalence of multi-hazard events in Asia and North America, whilst temporal overlaps of multiple hazards predominate in Europe. These results can be used to increase the integration of multi-hazard thinking in risk assessments, emergency management response plans and mitigation policies at both national and international levels

Chlamydiatrachomatis and placental inflammation in early preterm delivery

Chlamydiatrachomatis may infect the placenta and subsequently lead to preterm delivery. Our aim was to evaluate the relationship between the presence of Chlamydiatrachomatis and signs of placental inflammation in women who delivered at 32 weeks gestation or less. Setting: placental histology and clinical data were prospectively obtained from 304 women and newborns at the Erasmus MC-Sophia, Rotterdam, the Netherlands. C.trachomatis testing of placentas was done retrospectively using PCR. C.trachomatis was detected in 76 (25%) placentas. Histological evidence of placental inflammation was present in 123 (40%) placentas: in 41/76 (54%) placentas with C.trachomatis versus 82/228 (36%) placentas without C.trachomatis infection (OR 2.1, 95% CI 1.2–3.5). C.trachomatis infection correlated with the progression (P = 0.009) and intensity (P = 0.007) of materno-fetal placental inflammation. C.trachomatis DNA was frequently detected in the placenta of women with early preterm delivery, and was associated with histopathological signs of placental inflammation

Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change

As climate change research becomes increasingly applied, the need for actionable information is growing rapidly. A key aspect of this requirement is the representation of uncertainties. The conventional approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change is probabilistic, based on ensembles of climate model simulations. In the face of deep uncertainties, the known limitations of this approach are becoming increasingly apparent. An alternative is thus emerging which may be called a ‘storyline’ approach. We define a storyline as a physically self-consistent unfolding of past events, or of plausible future events or pathways. No a priori probability of the storyline is assessed; emphasis is placed instead on understanding the driving factors involved, and the plausibility of those factors. We introduce a typology of four reasons for using storylines to represent uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change: (i) improving risk awareness by framing risk in an event-oriented rather than a probabilistic manner, which corresponds more directly to how people perceive and respond to risk; (ii) strengthening decision-making by allowing one to work backward from a particular vulnerability or decision point, combining climate change information with other relevant factors to address compound risk and develop appropriate stress tests; (iii) providing a physical basis for partitioning uncertainty, thereby allowing the use of more credible regional models in a conditioned manner and (iv) exploring the boundaries of plausibility, thereby guarding against false precision and surprise. Storylines also offer a powerful way of linking physical with human aspects of climate change

Os interiores domésticos após a expansão da economia exportadora paulista

The present article aims at describing São Paulo city dwellings and at studying its trade and crafts production in the first half of the 19th Century. Our work is chiefly based on information collected from post-mortem inventories registered in São Paulo capital city. Memorialists have described São Paulo city and its market as insignificant until coffee cultivation took over as the main economic activity. However, our research has found out that, on the contrary, the domestic trade had been very active since the beginning of the 19th century.Este artigo se propõe a descrever os interiores domésticos dos paulistanos e a refletir sobre o comércio e a produção artesanal da cidade de São Paulo na primeira metade do Oitocentos. Baseamo-nos principalmente nas informações dos inventários post-mortem da capital. Os memorialistas descreveram a cidade e seu mercado acanhados até o advento do café. Nossa pesquisa, ao contrário, identificou-os muito ativo desde o início do século XIX

Human-Mediated Emergence as a Weed and Invasive Radiation in the Wild of the CD Genome Allotetraploid Rice Species (Oryza, Poaceae) in the Neotropics

BACKGROUND: The genus Oryza is being used as a model in plant genomic studies although there are several issues still to be resolved regarding the spatio-temporal evolution of this ancient genus. Particularly contentious is whether undated transoceanic natural dispersal or recent human interference has been the principal agent determining its present distribution and differentiation. In this context, we studied the origin and distribution history of the allotetraploid CD rice genome. It is endemic to the Neotropics but the genus is thought to have originated in the Paleotropics, and there is relatively little genetic divergence between some orthologous sequences of the C genome component and their Old World counterparts. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Because of its allotetraploidy, there are several potential pitfalls in trying to date the formation of the CD genome using molecular data and this could lead to erroneous estimates. Therefore, we rather chose to rely on historical evidence to determine whether or not the CD genome was present in the Neotropics before the arrival of Columbus. We searched early collections of herbarium specimens and studied the reports of explorers of the tropical Americas for references to rice. In spite of numerous collectors traveling inland and collecting Oryza, plants determined as CD genome species were not observed away from cultivated rice fields until 1869. Various arguments suggest that they only consisted of weedy forms until that time. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The spatio-temporal distribution of herbarium collections fits a simple biogeographical scenario for the emergence in cultivated rice fields followed by radiation in the wild of the CD genome in the Neotropics during the last four centuries. This probably occurred from species introduced to the Americas by humans and we found no evidence that the CD genome pre-existed in the Old World. We therefore propose a new evolutionary hypothesis for such a recent origin of the CD genome. Moreover, we exemplify how an historical approach can provide potentially important information and help to disentangle the timing of evolutionary events in the history of the Oryza genomes