On the welfare effects of financial development

Master Monetary and Financial EconomicsThe aim of this paper is to show how the evolution of financial technology affects the welfare in the economy. On the empirical side, I construct a time series for the costs of financial services, and I find that the evolution shows a decreasing trend in the period analyzed. In addition, the new statistical tool goes a long way to explaining US M1 money demand. I find that the financial costs became significantly lower after major financial innovation events had taken place. Then I study how financial innovation, understood as a decrease in portfolio adjustment costs, affects macro variables and welfare

Improving personalized elderly care: an approach using cognitive agents to better assist elderly people

Tesis por compendio de publicaciones[ES]El envejecimiento de la población a nivel global es una constante cada vez más presente en el día a día y las consecuencias derivadas de este problema son cada vez más impactantes para el correcto funcionamiento y estructuración de la sociedad. En este contexto, hablamos de consecuencias a nivel de crecimiento económico, estilos de vida (y jubilación), relaciones familiares, recursos disponibles por el gobierno a la franja etaria más anciana e inevitablemente la prevalencia de enfermedades crónicas. Es ante esta realidad que surge la necesidad de desarrollo y promoción de estrategias eficaces en el acompañamiento, prevención y estímulo al envejecimiento activo y saludable de la población para garantizar que las personas ancianas continúen teniendo un papel relevante en la sociedad en lugar de someterse al aislamiento y fácil deterioro de las capacidades físicas, cognitivas, emocionales y sociales. De esta forma, tiene todo el sentido aprovechar todos los desarrollos tecnológicos verificados en los últimos años, principalmente en lo que se refiere a avances en las áreas de dispositivos móviles, inteligencia artificial y sistemas de monitoreo y crear soluciones capaces de brindar apoyo diariamente al recopilar datos e indicadores del estado de salud y, en respuesta, proporcionar diversas acciones personalizadas que motiven la adopción de mejores hábitos de salud y medios para lograr este envejecimiento activo y saludable. El desafío consiste en motivar a esta población a conciliar su día a día con el interés y la voluntad de utilizar aplicaciones y sistemas que brinden este apoyo personalizado. Algunas de las abordajes recientemente explorados en la literatura con este objetivo y que han alcanzado resultados prometedores se basan en la utilización de técnicas de gamificación e incentivo al cumplimiento de desafíos a nivel de salud (como si la persona estuviera jugando un juego) y la utilización de interacciones personalizadas con objetos (ya sean físicos como robots o virtuales como avatares) capaces de brindar feedback más personal, creando así una conexión más cercana entre ambas entidades. El trabajo aquí presentado combina estas ideas y resulta en un enfoque inteligente para la promoción del bienestar de la población anciana a través de un sistema de cuidados de salud personalizado. Este sistema incorpora diversas técnicas de gamificación para la promoción de mejores hábitos y comportamientos, y la utilización de un asistente virtual cognitivo capaz de entender las necesidades e intereses del usuario para posibilitar un feedback e interacción personalizados con el fin de ayudar y motivar al cumplimiento de los diferentes desafíos y objetivos que se identifiquen. El enfoque propuesto fue validado a través de un estudio con 12 usuarios ancianos y se lograron resultados significativos en términos de usabilidad, aceptación y efectos de salud. Específicamente, los resultados obtenidos permiten respaldar la importancia y el efecto positivo de combinar técnicas de gamificación e interacción con un asistente virtual cognitivo que traduzca el progreso del estado de salud del usuario, ya que se lograron mejoras significativas en los resultados de salud después de la intervención. Además, los resultados de usabilidad obtenidos mediante la cumplimentación de un cuestionario de usabilidad confirmaron la buena adhesión a el enfoque presentado. Estos resultados validan la hipótesis de la investigación estudiada en el desarrollo de esta disertación

Instagram as a tool for shaping airline corporate reputation

O principal objetivo desta dissertação é analisar o nível de impacto de estratégias de Instagram na manutenção da perceção da reputação corporativa de uma companhia aérea, bem como analisar os efeitos consequentes no estabelecimento de expectativas de serviço. Estudos prévios neste tópico sugeriram uma correlação entre social media e reputação, mas a um nível superficial sem detalhar nem especificar as relações individuais entre componentes de cada variável em estudo. Para tal, a TAP Air Portugal é a empresa usada como motivo de fundo para esta investigação. Uma análise quantitativa, com dados reunidos a partir de um questionário, é o método escolhido para a compilação de informações relevantes que servem ao propósito da pesquisa. Os dados confirmaram as premissas e hipóteses iniciais, mas revelaram noções que indicam que, para o setor aéreo, a reputação corporativa pode ser afetada de maneira diferente de acordo com a dimensão da variável que estamos a considerar. E, como tal, as premissas conceituais são importantes serem claramente definidas sem ambiguidade de acordo com a melhor aplicação prática possível e os conceitos também devem ser considerados consoante as dimensões que constituem cada um deles, e não apenas o conceito como uma construção individualThe core objective of this dissertation is to understand how far can Instagram impact the perception of an airline corporate reputation and also to analyse the consequent effects on service expectations. Previous studies on this topic suggest some sort of connection between social media and reputation, but at a superficial level and without really concerning for the dimensions inside each variable at hand. For this, TAP Air Portugal is the case company that will be on the background for this entire work. A quantitative analysis, with data collected from a questionnaire, is the chosen method for the gathering of relevant insights serving the purpose of the research. The data confirmed initial premises and hypothesis, but uncovered notions indicating that, for the airline industry, corporate reputation might be affected in a different manner according to the dimension of the variable that we are looking at. And as such, conceptual premises are important to be clearly defined without ambiguity according to the best possible practical application, and also concepts should be considered as the dimensions constituting each one of them, and not only the concept as an individual construct

Introducing dynamic argumentation to UbiGDSS

Supporting and representing the group decision-making process is a complex task that requires very specific characteristics. The current existing argumentation models cannot make good use of all the advantages inherent to group decision-making. There is no monitoring of the process or the possibility to provide dynamism to it. These issues can compromise the success of Group Decision Support Systems if those systems are not able to provide freedom and all necessary mechanisms to the decision-maker. We investigate the use of argumentation in a completely new perspective that will allow for a mutual understanding between agents and decision-makers. Besides this, our proposal allows to define an agent not only according to the preferences of the decision-maker but also according to his interests towards the decision-making process. We show that our definition respects the requirements that are essential for groups to interact without limitations and that can take advantage of those interactions to create valuable knowledge to support more and better.This work has been supported by COMPETE Programme (operational programme for competitiveness) within project POCI-01-0145-FEDER-007043, by National Funds through the FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (Portuguese Foun-dation for Science and Technology) within the Projects UID/CEC/00319/2013, UID/EEA/00760/2013, and the João Carneiro PhD grant with the reference SFRH/BD/89697/2012 and by Project MANTIS - Cyber Physical System Based Proactive Collaborative Maintenance (ECSEL JU Grant nr. 662189).info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Defining an architecture for a ubiquitous group decision support system

Supporting group decision-making in ubiquitous contexts is fundamental while developing Group Decision Support Systems (GDSS). Here we propose an architecture that assures ubiquity and allows the development of a system which can be used anywhere at any time and through almost any sort of electronic device. Our approach can be used by developers that intend to build Ubiquitous Group Decision Support Systems (UbiGDSS). It uses three main components that are interconnected and that will allow to collect and preserve the amount and quality of intelligence generated in face-to-face meetings.This work was supported by COMPETE Programme (operational programme for competitiveness) within Project POCI-01-0145-FEDER-007043, by National Funds through the FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology) within the Projects UID/CEC/00319/2013, UID/EEA/00760/2013, and the João Carneiro PhD Grant with the Reference SFRH/BD/89697/2012.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Including credibility and expertise in group decision-making process: an approach designed for UbiGDSS

Supporting group decision-making when the decision-makers are spread around the world is a complex process. The mechanisms of automated negotiation, such as argumentation, can be used in Ubiquitous Group Decision Support Systems to help decision-makers find a solution based on their preferences. However, there are some other important issues that affect the decisionmaking process beyond typical preferences over criteria and alternatives. In this paper, we propose an algorithm that will allow agents to reason about self-expertise and other decision makers’ credibility. This way, we intend agents to achieve better quality and more consensual decisions. Our algorithm includes not only the decision-maker’s preferences but also his intentions in the process. By using the proposed model, agents achieved a stronger consensus in all scenarios that were considered and higher satisfaction levels in the most complex scenarios.This work was supported by COMPETE Programme (operational programme for competitiveness) within Project POCI-01-0145-FEDER-007043, by National Funds through the FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology) within the Projects UID/CEC/00319/2013, UID/EEA/00760/2013, and the João Carneiro PhD Grant with the Reference SFRH/BD/89697/2012.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

The effect of decision satisfaction prediction in argumentation-based negotiation

Supporting group decision-making is a complex process, especially when decision-makers have no opportunity to gather at the same place and at the same time. Besides that, finding solutions may be difficult in case representing agents are not able to understand the process and support the decision-maker accordingly. Here we propose a model and an algorithm that will allow the agent to analyse tendencies. This way we intend that agents can achieve decisions with more quality and with higher levels of consensus. Our model allows the agent to redefine his objectives to maximize both his and group satisfaction. Our model proved that agents that use it will obtain higher average levels of consensus and satisfaction. Besides that, agents using this model will obtain those higher levels of consensus and satisfaction in most of the times compared to agents that do not use it.This work has been supported by COMPETE Programme (operational programme for competitiveness) within project POCI-01-0145-FEDER-007043, by National Funds through the FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (Portuguese Foun-dation for Science and Technology) within the Projects UID/CEC/00319/2013, UID/EEA/00760/2013, and the João Carneiro PhD grant with the reference SFRH/BD/89697/2012 and by Project MANTIS - Cyber Physical System Based Proactive Collaborative Maintenance (ECSEL JU Grant nr. 662189).info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Dealing with agents’ behaviour in the decision-making process

Gathering a group of managers or executives (decision-makers) in a same place and at a same time is not an easy task. In fact, the decision-makers’ schedule is so tight that it becomes necessary to develop tools that will aid in the communication and in the decision-making process. The intelligent systems (IS) can be the solution to overcome these necessities. In literature, there have been appearing more and more IS that make use of multi agent systems (MAS) in order to represent real decision-makers in this type of systems. In our work we address the problem of how agents should behave during the decision-making process and what strategies they can follow to represent the interests of the decision-maker. We intend to define valid behaviours for agents in group decision-making context and to relate the theoretical behaviours definition with usual attitudes and acts that are relevant for this context. We define two dimensions and relate them with two facets based on the Five Factor Model. Then we propose the behaviours classification according three different levels (low, moderate and high) for each one of the dimensions. We use the value of the personality trait correspondent to each facet in order to classify our behaviours in the scale.This work is part-funded by ERDF - European Regional Development Fund through the COMPETE Programme (operational programme for competitiveness) and by National Funds through the FCT - Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology) within project FCOMP-01-0124- FEDER-028980 (PTDC/EEISII/1386/2012) and SFRH/BD/89697/2012.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Defining agents’ behaviour for negotiation contexts

Agents who represent participants in the group decision-making context require a certain number of individual traits in order to be successful. By using argumentation models, agents are capable to defend the interests of those who they represent, and also justify and support their ideas and actions. However, regardless of how much knowledge they might hold, it is essential to define their behaviour. In this paper (1) is presented a study about the most important models to infer different types of behaviours that can be adapted and used in this context, (2) are proposed rules that must be followed to affect positively the system when defining behaviours and (3) is proposed the adaptation of a conflict management model to the context of Group Decision Support Systems. We propose one approach that (a) intends to reflect a natural way of human behaviour in the agents, (b) provides an easier way to reach an agreement between all parties involved and (c) does not have high configuration costs to the participants. Our approach will offer a simple yet perceptible configuration tool that can be used by the participants and contribute to more intelligent communications between agents and makes possible for the participants to have a better understanding of the types of interactions experienced by the agents belonging to the system.This work is part-funded by ERDF - European Regional Development Fund through the COMPETE Programme (operational programme for competitiveness) within project FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-028980 (PTDC/EEISII/1386/2012) and by National Funds through the FCT - Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology) with the João Carneiro PhD grant with the reference SFRH/BD/89697/2012.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

A general template to configure multi-criteria problems in Ubiquitous GDSS

The study of multi-criteria problems adapted to the context of Ubiquitous Group Decision Support Systems (UbiGDSS) is covered in the literature through very different perspectives and interests. There are scientific studies related to the multi-criteria problems that lie across argumentation-based negotiation, multi-agent systems, dialogues, etc. However, to perform most of these studies, a high amount of information is required. The usage of so much data or information that is difficult to collect or configure can bring good results in theoretical scenarios but can be impossible to use in the real world. In order to overcome these issues, we present in this paper a general template to configure multi-criteria problems adapted for the contexts of UbiGDSS that intends to be easy and fast to configure, appellative, intuitive, permits to collect a lot of data and helps the decision-maker transmitting his beliefs and opinions to the system. Our proposal includes three sections: Problem Data, Personal Configuration and Problem Configuration. We have developed a prototype with our template with the purpose to simulate the configuration of a multi-criteria problem. We invited real decision-makers to use our prototype in a simulated scenario and asked to them to fulfil a survey in the end in order to study our hypotheses. Our general template achieved good results and proved to be very perceptible and fast to configure.This work is part-funded by ERDF - European Regional Development Fund through the COMPETE Programme (operational programme for competitiveness) within project FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-028980 (PTDC/EEISII/1386/2012) and by National Funds through the FCT - Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology) with the João Carneiro PhD grant with the reference SFRH/BD/89697/2012.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio