A novel approach to estimate glacier mass balance in the Tien Shan and Pamir based on transient snowline observations

Glaciers are recognised as an excellent proxy for climate change and their centennial massloss has accelerated during the past decades. The Central Asian mountain ranges Tien Shan and Pamir host over 25,000 glaciers that have been observed to respond heterogeneous to climate change. Glacier changes in the region have very important consequences on the water availability for the densely populated lowlands. Despite the significance and severity that climate change exerts on the Central Asian water towers, the glacier response is still poorly understood, hampering sound interpretations and predictions of future threats and opportunities. A significant data gap in the field measurement series from the mid-1990s to around 2010, limits the analysis of long-term trends. Despite the recent efforts to re-established the historical cryospheric monitoring network, continuous long-term glacier mass balance time series remain sparse for Central Asia. Thus, improved temporal and spatial coverage of glacier monitoring is essential. Remote sensing techniques are a powerful tool to study a large number of remotely located and unmeasured glaciers and provide a possibility to partly bridge the aforementioned deficit in data availability. However, the coarse temporal resolution of geodetic mass balance assessments is not suitable to improve the understanding of ongoing processes. This accentuates the indispensable need for improved and extended annual to seasonal observations of mass change of inaccessible and remote glaciers on a cost and labour effective basis as well as for a more elaborated and enhanced, process-orientated methodology. This work provides a combination of detailed in situ measurements and remote sensing based glacier mass change observation from local to regional scale. A multi-level strategy is applied to complement data from long-term glaciological surveys and remote sensing (snowline observations and geodetic mass balance measurements) with numerical modelling to obtain information at high temporal and spatial resolution for individual glaciers. Through modelling constrained with transient snowlines, annual mass balance time series for a large amount of glaciers located in the Tien Shan and Pamir were made available. Such mass balance estimates provide valuable baseline data for climate change assessments, runoff projection, hazard evaluation and enhance process understanding. A better understanding of the regional annual variability of glacier response to climate change in the Pamir and Tien Shan became possible based on the outcome of this thesis. In the presented thesis the results are discussed in detail, the weaknesses and strengths of the developed methodology are unfolded and the relevant perspective and future research outlined.Gletscher sind ausgezeichnete Indikatoren für den Klimawandel. Ihr langjähriger Massen- verlust hat sich in den letzten Jahrzehnten weltweit akzentuiert. Die zentralasiatischen Bergketten Tien Shan und Pamir beherbergen u¨ber 25’000 Gletscher. Studien zeigen, dass diese Gletscher heterogen auf den Klimawandel reagieren. Gletscherver¨anderungen in der Region haben wichtige Auswirkungen auf die Wasserverfügbarkeit für das dicht besiedelte Flachland. Trotz den bedeutenden Konsequenzen welche durch den Klimawandel auf diese regionalen Wasserspeicher ausgeübt wird, ist die Veränderung der Gletscher im Tien Shan und Pamir immer noch relativ unbekannt, was fundierte Interpretationen und Vorhersagen zukünftiger Gefahren und Chancen erschwert. Eine prägnante Datenlücke in den existierenden Messreihen von Mitte der 1990er Jahren bis ca. 2010 schränkt eine detaillierte Analyse langfristiger Entwicklungen weiter ein. Trotz der jüngsten Bemühungen, das historische Kryosphäremessnetz wieder herzustellen, bleiben kontinuierliche Langzeitmessungen für die Gletscher in Zentralasien limitiert. Eine verbesserte zeitliche und räumliche Abdeckung der Gletscherbeobachtungen ist daher unerlässlich. Fernerkundungstechniken sind gängige Methoden, um eine große Anzahl abgelegener und unerforschter Gletscher zu untersuchen. Mit solchen Methoden kann das Defizit an Datenverfügbarkeit der Region teilweise kompensiert werden. Die grobe zeitliche Auflösung der geodätischen Massenbilanzberechnungen und das somit limitierte Prozessverständnis unterstreichen jedoch den unabdingbaren Bedarf nach verbesserten und erweiterten jährlichen bis saisonalen Massenbilanzbeobachtungen. Ab- schätzungen auf ausgedehnter räumlicher Skala, sowie eine stärkere Prozess orientierte Forschung sind nötig. Die vorliegende Arbeit beschreibt eine Kombination aus detaillierten Feldmessungen und Fernerkundungsbeobachtungen der Gletschermassenänderung im Tien Shan und Pamir. Die angewandte Strategie basiert auf mehreren Ebenen aus lokalen bis regionalen Studien. Mit dieser Strategie werden Daten aus langzeit-glaziologischen Feldmessungen und aus der Fernerkundung (Schneelinienbeobachtungen, geodätische Massenbilanzmessungen) mit numerischen Modellierungen komplementieren. Dabei werden Informationen für ausgewählte Gletscher mit hoher zeitlicher und räumlicher Auflösung extrahiert. Durch das Modellieren mit wiederholten Schneelinienbeobachtungen, welche zur Kalibrierung verwendet werden, konnten jährliche Massenbilanzzeitreihen für eine große Anzahl von Gletschern im Studiengebiet berechnet werden. Solche grossräumigen und zeitlich hochaufgelösten Abschätzungen liefern wertvolle Grundlagen für detaillierte Studien über die Auswirkungen des Klimawandels, ermöglichen fundierte Abflussprojektionen und erlauben verbesserte Gefahrenanalysen. Basierend auf den Ergebnissen dieser Arbeit, wird ein besseres Verständnis der regionalen jährlichen Variabilität der Gletscherreaktionen auf den Klimawandel im Pamir und Tien Shan ermöglicht. In der hier vorgelegten Arbeit werden die Resultate im Detail diskutiert, die Schwächen und Stärken der entwickelten Methodik offengelegt und die relevanten Perspektiven abgefasst

Mass balance observations and reconstruction for Batysh Sook Glacier, Tien Shan, from 2004 to 2016

In this study we present an analysis of measured annual mass balances for the period 2011 to 2016 and a reconstruction of seasonal mass balances from 2004 to 2010 for Batysh Sook Glacier located in the Kyrgyz Tien Shan. Conventional methods and a model-based extrapolation of the point measurements were used to obtain glacier- wide mass balances and to analyze glaciological measurements. Especially at the beginning of the re-established glacier mass balance monitoring program, deviations between the different methods were significant, having a range of 0.40 m w.e. a− 1. With the improvement of the measurement network in later years, the results of the different extrapolation methods showed better agreement (range of 0.10 to 0.22 m w.e. a− 1). For 2011 to 2016, the profile method revealed a mass loss of − 0.41 ± 28 m w.e. a− 1. The contour line method yielded a negative mean mass balance of − 0.34 ± 20 m w.e a− 1, whereas the model-based extrapolation clearly resulted in the most negative value of − 0.43 ± 16 m w.e. a− 1 for the same period.The same distributed accumulation and temperature index melt model used to extrapolate point measurements from 2011 to 2016 was applied in order to reconstruct the mass balance from 2004 to 2010. The model was driven by daily air temperature and precipitation data from a nearby meteorological station and the model parameters were calibrated with in-situ measurements of annual mass balances collected from 2011 to 2016. Winter accumulation measurements taken in May 2014 were used for calibration purposes and to deduce snow distribution patterns. Subseasonal model performance was validated based on the snow cover depletion pattern observed on satellite images during the summer months from 2004 to 2016. For Batysh Sook Glacier an average annual mass balance of − 0.39 ± 0.26 m w.e. a− 1 was found for the period 2003/04 to 2015/16

Re-analysis of seasonal mass balance at Abramov glacier 1968–2014

Abramov glacier, located in the Pamir Alay, Kyrgyzstan, is a reference glacier within the Global Terrestrial Network for Glaciers. Long-term glaciological measurements exist from 1968 to 1998 and a mass-balance monitoring programme was re-established in 2011. In this study we re-analyse existing mass-balance data and use a spatially distributed mass-balance model to provide continuous seasonal time series of glacier mass balance covering the period 1968–2014. The model is calibrated to seasonal mass-balance surveys and then applied to the period with no measurements. Validation and recalibration is carried out using snowline observations derived from satellite imagery and, after 2011, also from automatic terrestrial camera images. We combine direct measurements, remote observations and modelling. The results are compared to geodetic glacier volume change over the past decade and to a ground-penetrating radar survey in the accumulation zone resolving several layers of accumulation. Previously published geodetic mass budget estimates for Abramov glacier suggest a close-to-zero mass balance for the past decade, which contradicts our results. We find a low plausibility for equilibrium conditions over the past 15 years. Instead, we suggest that the glacier's sensitivity to increased summer air temperature is decisive for the substantial mass loss during the past decade

Chapter 8 The Status and Role of the alpine Cryosphere in Central Asia

The alpine cryosphere including snow, glaciers and permafrost are critical to water management in the Aral Sea Basin (ASB) and larger Central Asia (CA) under changing climate: as they store large amounts of water in its solid forms. Most cryospheric components in the Aral Sea Basin are close to melting point, and hence very vulnerable to a slight increase in air temperature with significant consequences to long-term water availability and to water resources variability and extremes. Current knowledge about different components of cryosphere and their connection to climate in the Basin and in the entire Central Asia, varies. While it is advanced in the topics of snow and glaciers, knowledge on permafrost it rather limited. Observed trends in runoff point in the direction of increasing water availability in July and August at least until mid-century and increasing possibility for water storage in reservoirs and aquifers. However, eventually this will change as glaciers waste away. Future runoff may change considerably after mid-century and start to decline if not compensated by increasing precipitation. Cryosphere monitoring systems are the basis for sound estimates of water availability and water-related hazards associated with snow, glaciers and permafrost. They require a well-distributed observational network for all cryospheric variables. Such systems need to be re-established in the Basin after the breakup of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s. This process is slowly emerging in the region. Collaboration between local operational hydro-meteorological services and academic sector, and with international research networks may improving the observing capabilities in high mountain regions of CA Asia in general and the ASB specifically

Mass-balance reconstruction for Glacier No. 354, Tien Shan, from 2003 to 2014

This study presents a reconstruction of the seasonal mass balance of Glacier No. 354, located in the Akshiirak range, Kyrgyzstan, from 2003 to 2014. We use a distributed accumulation and temperature-index melt model driven by daily air temperature and precipitation from a nearby meteorological station. The model is calibrated with in situ measurements of the annual mass balance collected from 2011 to 2014. The snow-cover depletion pattern observed using satellite imagery provides additional information on the dynamics of mass change throughout the melting season. Two digital elevation models derived from high-resolution satellite stereo images acquired in 2003 and 2012 are used to calculate glacier volume change for the corresponding period. The geodetic mass change thus derived is used to validate the modelled cumulative glacier-wide balance. For the period 2003–12 we find a cumulative mass balance of –0.40±10mw.e.a-1. This result agrees well with the geodetic balance of –0.48±0.07mw.e.a-1over the same period

Mountain resilience: a tool for mudflow risk management in the Ile Alatau Mountains, Kazakhstan

The densely populated central part of the Ile Alatau mountains is one of the most mudflow-prone areas of Kazakhstan. Implementation of protection measures, early warning systems, and risk management plans is crucial to protect livelihoods and infrastructure from damage caused by mudflows. Increasing harm and damage from mudflows in recent decades—due to more frequent events, as well as increased economic development of the area—has made the establishment and implementation of a mudflow risk management system a priority. The effectiveness of such a system largely depends on the scientific validity of the management plan and hence is determined by the level of knowledge of the physical processes triggering such events. This knowledge is based on information that must be collected, analyzed, and systematized. However, such data are not easy to access; they are scattered over different archives and research institutes or simply missing. In recent years, scientific monographs, articles, and reports have been published that attempt to collect and systematize data on mudflow phenomena in general. These efforts provide a basis for further work but are often not readily available for use. This article presents the updateable, interactive, intelligent information system “Mudflow phenomena of the central part of the Ile Alatau” that links cartographic information with data on mudflow formation centers. This system concentrates and collates existing knowledge, making it accessible to stakeholders and decision-makers who can turn this knowledge into suitable applications for adaptive and sustainable risk management

Global glacier mass changes and their contributions to sea-level rise from 1961 to 2016

International audienc

Constraining hydrological model parameters using water isotopic compositions in a glacierized basin, Central Asia

Water stable isotope signatures can provide valuable insights into the catchment internal runoff processes. However, the ability of the water isotope data to constrain the internal apportionments of runoff components in hydrological models for glacierized basins is not well understood. This study developed an approach to simultaneously model the water stable isotopic compositions and runoff processes in a glacierized basin in Central Asia. The fractionation and mixing processes of water stable isotopes in and from the various water sources were integrated into a glacio- hydrological model. The model parameters were calibrated on discharge, snow cover and glacier mass balance data, and additionally isotopic composition of streamflow. We investigated the value of water isotopic compositions for the calibration of model parameters, in comparison to calibration methods without using such measurements. Results indicate that: (1) The proposed isotope-hydrological integrated modeling approach was able to reproduce the isotopic composition of streamflow, and improved the model performance in the evaluation period; (2) Involving water isotopic composition for model calibration reduced the model parameter uncertainty, and helped to reduce the uncertainty in the quantification of runoff components; (3) The isotope-hydrological integrated modeling approach quantified the contributions of runoff components comparably to a three-component tracer-based end-member mixing analysis method for summer peak flows, and required less water tracer data. Our findings demonstrate the value of water isotopic compositions to improve the quantification of runoff components using hydrological models in glacierized basins

Reconstructed Centennial Mass Balance Change for Golubin Glacier, Northern Tien Shan

Mass balance measurements for Golubin glacier in Northern Tien Shan, Kyrgyzstan, have been discontinuous over the last century, with significant data gaps. We provide a unique over 100-year-long mass balance series on daily resolution. We applied a temperature index model calibrated with glaciological measurements and validated with secular mass balances derived from independent length change observations. A comparison with other recent geodetic studies reveals good agreement. Golubin lost −0.16 ± 0.45 m w.e. a−1 from 1900/1901 to 2020/2021. From the long-term mass balance time series, we identify a shift to a more negative/less positive regime with time, with a steepening of the ablation and accumulation gradients, especially for the past two decades. We observe a parallel shift of the mass balance gradient accompanied by a rotation of the ablation gradient due to increased ablation at the glacier tongue and accumulation above the equilibrium line altitude. This tendency is believed to intensify in the future, affecting glaciers’ mass balance sensitivity to changes in atmospheric conditions and year-to-year variability and resulting in irregular melt water release feeding the rivers that provide water to Bishkek. These kinds of datasets are sparse for Tien Shan and, yet, indispensable to enhancing our understanding of glacier changes in High Mountain Asia