The Influence of Optimism Bias on Time and Cost on Construction Projects

The unresolved scholarly debate to curtail cost and time performances in projects has led to alternate solutions, departing from the dominant technical school of thought to include concepts from behavioural sciences. In this paper, we consider the psychological effect, namely optimism bias, as one of the root causes for delays in cost overruns on projects. The research objectives were to determine the level of bias among project participants, rank time and cost overrun causes according to the participants’ bias score and establish a mitigation strategy to curb potential delays and cost overrun impacts based on the bias scores obtained. A literature survey was conducted to determine causal factors contributing to delays and cost overruns linked to optimism bias. Through a pilot survey of three semi-structured interviews, eighty factors obtained from the literature survey were reduced to 24 critical delay and cost overrun factors relevant to Trinidad and Tobago. A questionnaire was subsequently developed seeking construction professionals to rate their bias scores based on an 11-point Likert scale. The research confirms that project planners and decision-makers exhibit moderate levels of optimism bias; however, participants lacked awareness of the impact of optimism bias on projects outcomes. Project location, environmental impacts and historic preservation, and labour disputes are the top three critical factors where project professionals displayed increased optimistic tendencies. It is proposed that contingency “time window” and reference class forecasting be implemented as control mechanisms to mitigate the impacts of time and cost overruns on projects. This research introduces a novel method to account for and measure optimism bias on construction projects. This study adds knowledge into delays and cost overruns causation and provides a foundation for future studies on quantifying psychological effects on projects and enhancing overall project management practices. Doi: 10.28991/esj-2021-01287 Full Text: PD

Raman-scattering study of the InGaN alloy over the whole composition range

We present Raman-scattering measurements on InxGa1−xN over the entire composition range of the alloy. The frequencies of the A1(LO) and E2 modes are reported and show a good agreement with the one-mode behavior dispersion predicted by the modified random-element isodisplacement model. The A1(LO) mode displays a high intensity relative to the E2 mode due to resonant enhancement. For above band-gap excitation, the A1(LO) peak displays frequency shifts as a function of the excitation energy due to selective excitation of regions with different In contents, and strong multiphonon scattering up to 3LO is observed in outgoing resonance conditions

Structural and optical properties of MOCVD AllnN epilayers

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Optical energies of AllnN epilayers

Optical energy gaps are measured for high-quality Al1−xInxN-on-GaN epilayers with a range of compositions around the lattice match point using photoluminescence and photoluminescence excitation spectroscopy. These data are combined with structural data to determine the compositional dependence of emission and absorption energies. The trend indicates a very large bowing parameter of 6 eV and differences with earlier reports are discussed. Very large Stokes' shifts of 0.4-0.8 eV are observed in the composition range 0.13<x<0.24, increasing approximately linearly with InN fraction despite the change of sign of the piezoelectric fiel

Distribution of basement membrane antigens in glomeruli of mice with autoimmune glomerulonephritis.

peer reviewedGlomerulonephritis was induced in mice by the repeated injection of human glomeruli or purified glomerular basement membrane. The glomerular basement membranes of nephritic animals were observed to develop subepithelial extensions, "spikes." Although normally Type IV collagen is found throughout the full thickness of basement membranes, the "spikes" reacted with antibodies to laminin but not with antibodies to Type IV collagen. It is proposed that in murine autoimmune glomerulonephritis, the visceral epithelial cells produce an excess of laminin

A novel scanning lens instrument for evaluating Fresnel lens performance: equipment development and initial results

A system dedicated to the optical transmittance characterization of Fresnel lenses has been developed at NREL, in collaboration with the UPM. The system quantifies the optical efficiency of the lens by generating a performance map. The shape of the focused spot may also be analyzed to understand change in the lens performance. The primary instrument components (lasers and CCD detector) have been characterized to confirm their capability for performing optical transmittance measurements. Measurements performed on SoG and PMMA lenses subject to a variety of indoor conditions (e.g., UV and damp heat) identified differences in the optical efficiency of the evaluated lenses, demonstrating the ability of the Scanning Lens Instrument (SLI) to distinguish between the aged lenses

ISO spectroscopy of compact HII regions in the Galaxy. II Ionization and elemental abundances

Based on the ISO spectral catalogue of compact HII regions by Peeters et al. (2001), we present a first analysis of the hydrogen recombination and atomic fine-structure lines originated in the ionized gas. The sample consists of 34 HII regions located at galactocentric distances between Rgal = 0 and 15 kpc. The SWS HI recombination lines between 2 and 8 mum are used to estimate the extinction law at these wavelengths for 14 HII regions. An extinction in the K band between 0 and $\sim$ 3 mag. has been derived. The fine-structure lines of N, O, Ne, S and Ar are detected in most of the sources. Most of these elements are observed in two different ionization stages probing a range in ionization potential up to 41 eV. The ISO data, by itself or combined with radio data taken from the literature, is used to derive the elemental abundances relative to hydrogen. The present data thus allow us to describe for each source its elemental abundance, its state of ionization and to constrain the properties of the ionizing star(s).Comment: Accepted in Astronomy and Astrophysics, 22 pages, 20 figures, 9 table

Cirugía de la fibrilación auricular

Atrial fibrillation surgery is based on creating scars in the atrium, in order to avoid re-entry phenomena that may initiate and perpetuate arrhythmia, and driving the normal stimuli from the sinus node to the atrio-ventricular node. The complexity and increased risk of the initial surgical technique, based on a "cut-and-sew" procedure, have enhanced other current procedures, in which different energies are used making it possible to perform scars in a safer and less invasive way. At present, atrial fibrillation surgery is not performed routinely in all cardiothoracic surgical centers, and there is no consensus in which is the best type of technique. Even if the results are good, they depend on multiples factors such as duration of arrhythmia, atrial size and type of technique employed. In addition, there is some variability in the description within the scientific community of the results and procedures used, which makes its analysis confusing. In this paper we review the different techniques described, the results and their application in minimally invasive surgery

Spiky strings and single trace operators in gauge theories

We consider single trace operators of the form O_{m_1 ... m_n} = tr D_+^{m_1} F ... D_+^{m_n} F which are common to all gauge theories. We argue that, when all m_i are equal and large, they have a dual description as strings with cusps, or spikes, one for each field F. In the case of N=4 SYM, we compute the energy as a function of angular momentum by finding the corresponding solutions in AdS_5 and compare with a 1-loop calculation of the anomalous dimension. As in the case of two spikes (twist two operators), there is agreement in the functional form but not in the coupling constant dependence. After that, we analyze the system in more detail and find an effective classical mechanics describing the motion of the spikes. In the appropriate limit, it is the same (up to the coupling constant dependence) as the coherent state description of linear combinations of the operators O_{m_1 ... m_n} such that all m_i are equal on average. This agreement provides a map between the operators in the boundary and the position of the spikes in the bulk. We further suggest that moving the spikes in other directions should describe operators with derivatives other than D_+ indicating that these ideas are quite generic and should help in unraveling the string description of the large-N limit of gauge theories.Comment: 23 pages, 5 figures. v2: References and comments adde