Does education reduce the probability of being overweight?

This paper analyses the causal effect of education on the probability of being overweight by using longitudinal data of Australian identical twins. The data include self-reported and clinical measures of body size. The prevalence of overweight and obesity is growing rapidly in many countries. Education policies might be important for reducing this increase. Our cross-sectional estimates confirm the well-known negative association between education and the probability of being overweight. For men we find that education also reduces the probability of being overweight within pairs of identical twins. The estimated effect of education on overweight status increases with age. Remarkably, for women we find no negative effect of education on body size when fixed family effects are taken into account. Identical twin sisters that differ in educational attainment do not systematically differ in body size. This finding is robust to differences in employment and number of children.

Optimal Probabilistic Forecasts for Counts

Optimal probabilistic forecasts of integer-valued random variables are derived. The optimality is achieved by estimating the forecast distribution nonparametrically over a given broad model class and proving asymptotic efficiency in that setting. The ideas are demonstrated within the context of the integer autoregressive class of models, which is a suitable class for any count data that can be interpreted as a queue, stock, birth and death process or branching process. The theoretical proofs of asymptotic optimality are supplemented by simulation results which demonstrate the overall superiority of the nonparametric method relative to a misspecified parametric maximum likelihood estimator, in large but .nite samples. The method is applied to counts of wage claim benefits, stock market iceberg orders and civilian deaths in Iraq, with bootstrap methods used to quantify sampling variation in the estimated forecast distributions.Nonparametric Inference; Asymptotic Efficiency; Count Time Series; INAR Model Class; Bootstrap Distributions; Iceberg Stock Market Orders.

Non-Parametric Estimation of Forecast Distributions in Non-Gaussian, Non-linear State Space Models

The object of this paper is to produce non-parametric maximum likelihood estimates of forecast distributions in a general non-Gaussian, non-linear state space setting. The transition densities that define the evolution of the dynamic state process are represented in parametric form, but the conditional distribution of the non-Gaussian variable is estimated non-parametrically. The filtering and prediction distributions are estimated via a computationally efficient algorithm that exploits the functional relationship between the observed variable, the state variable and a measurement error with an invariant distribution. Simulation experiments are used to document the accuracy of the non-parametric method relative to both correctly and incorrectly specified parametric alternatives. In an empirical illustration, the method is used to produce sequential estimates of the forecast distribution of realized volatility on the S&P500 stock index during the recent financial crisis. A resampling technique for measuring sampling variation in the estimated forecast distributions is also demonstrated.Probabilistic Forecasting; Non-Gaussian Time Series; Grid-based Filtering; Penalized Likelihood; Subsampling; Realized Volatility.

Beauty is only mucosa deep : a retrospective analysis of oral lumps and bumps caused by cosmetic fillers

Introduction: The injection of dermal fillers into orofacial tissues is becoming increasingly popular for cosmetic purposes, in particular for lip augmentation. Both natural and synthetic filler materials are available, producing a spectrum of clinical and histological appearances. Aims: The aim of this study was to review the clinicopathological characteristics of dermal filler cases from 2006 to 2016, reported at a specialist oral pathology unit. Methods: An archival search of the pathology database was performed to retrieve cases reported as being consistent with cosmetic fillers. Results: Ten cases of orofacial cosmetic fillers were retrieved. Of these cases, 100% were from female patients and the mean age of presentation was 47.6 years (range 24-68 years). The lips were the most frequently involved site (80%, n = 8). The majority of provisional diagnoses were related to salivary gland disease, including neoplasms (30%, n = 3), cysts (20%, n = 2) or inflammatory disease (10%, n = 1). Only two cases (20%) were clinically thought to be related to previous cosmetic injections. A variety of filler materials were seen, including collagen, hydroxyapatite and silicone. However, hyaluronic acid-based materials were the most common (50%, n = 5). Conclusions: Complications of cosmetic dermal fillers are becoming more common and should be considered within a differential diagnosis for unusual orofacial swellings

Lubrication in cold rolling: Elasto-plasto-hydrodynamic lubrication

A model has been developed with respect to hydrodynamic lubrication in cold rolling. The basic model describes the configuration of a rigid, perfectly plastic sheet rolled by a rigid work roll. The governing equations have been solved throughout the complete contact area, i.e. the inlet, the work zone and the outlet zone. Multi-level techniques have been applied to solve these equations together with boundary conditions, resulting in an algorithm solving the problem in O(n) operations. This means that the distribution of the pressure and the traction force in the lubricant film, and the shape of this film, as well as the plastic deformation of the sheet, can be accurately calculated for a large number of nodal points on a minicomputer. Subsequently elastic deformation, work hardening and dynamic behaviour of the flow stress have been incorporated in the model. It will be shown that the influence of these effects on the film thickness or the pressure distribution is considerable

Subtilisin enzymes: A note on time-resolved fluorescence and circular dichroism properties

AbstractThis note briefly corrects previous information about the time-resolved fluorescence properties of preparations of subtilisin Carlsberg and subtilisin BPN′. We confirm the observation of segmental motion of the single tryptophan in subtilisin Carlsberg by analysis of the time-resolved fluorescence anisotropy, and present circular dichroism and spectroscopic data on the two proteins. Near-UV properties clearly differentiate between the two proteins. Far-UV circular dichroism confirms that the two subtilisins have closely similar secondary structure in solution; the multi-component analysis is consistent with the established X-ray conformations, but the quantitative agreement is still somewhat imperfect

Managing the performance of maintenance personnel

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