A General Approach for Predicting the Behavior of the Supreme Court of the United States

Building on developments in machine learning and prior work in the science of judicial prediction, we construct a model designed to predict the behavior of the Supreme Court of the United States in a generalized, out-of-sample context. To do so, we develop a time evolving random forest classifier which leverages some unique feature engineering to predict more than 240,000 justice votes and 28,000 cases outcomes over nearly two centuries (1816-2015). Using only data available prior to decision, our model outperforms null (baseline) models at both the justice and case level under both parametric and non-parametric tests. Over nearly two centuries, we achieve 70.2% accuracy at the case outcome level and 71.9% at the justice vote level. More recently, over the past century, we outperform an in-sample optimized null model by nearly 5%. Our performance is consistent with, and improves on the general level of prediction demonstrated by prior work; however, our model is distinctive because it can be applied out-of-sample to the entire past and future of the Court, not a single term. Our results represent an important advance for the science of quantitative legal prediction and portend a range of other potential applications.Comment: version 2.02; 18 pages, 5 figures. This paper is related to but distinct from arXiv:1407.6333, and the results herein supersede arXiv:1407.6333. Source code available at https://github.com/mjbommar/scotus-predict-v

Encountering the Worlds of Slow Cinema: Spectatorship, Duration, and Nostalgia

This thesis addresses the international mode of contemporary slow cinema. Comprised of films notable for long takes, minimalist narratives, and a careful sense of attention to quotidian daily activities, this mode has received increased scholarly attention in recent years. Contrary to existing scholarship, this thesis proposes a malleable relationship between slow aesthetics and popular modes. More specifically, this thesis also introduces the concept of the "hangout film," a popular mode in which duration, nostalgia, and the presentation of daily activities are essential to its style. Through analysis of films by Tsai Ming-liang, Kelly Reichardt, and Quentin Tarantino, this thesis argues for an expanded understanding of cinematic slowness and its presence in contemporary films.Bachelor of Art

Neuropsychological assessment methodology revisited: metatheoretical reflections

Theory building in neuropsychology, similar to other disciplines, rests on metatheoretical assumptions of philosophical origin. Such assumptions regarding the relation of psychological and physiological variables influence research methodologies as well as assessment strategies in fields of application. Here, we revisit the classic procedure of Double Dissociation (DD) to illustrate the connection of metatheory and methodology. In a seemingly unbridgeable opposition, the classical neuropsychological procedure of DD can be understood as either presupposing localizationism and a modular view of the brain, or as a special case of the generalized neuro-lens model for neuropsychological assessment. In the latter case, it is more easily compatible with a perspective that emphasizes the systemic-network, rather than the modular, nature of the brain, which as part of the organism, proportionately mediates the situatedness of the human being in the world. This perspective not only makes it possible to structure ecological validation processes and give them a metatheoretical foundation, but also to interlace it with the phenomenological insight that the laboratory as one context of empirical research may be analyzed in terms of situated experience. We conclude with showing that both the localizationist and the system science approach can agree on a view of the brain as a dynamical network, and that metatheory may thus offer important new perspectives of reconciliation.Peer Reviewe

Montana Trends: Montanans\u27 Consumer Confidence & Expectations for Income, Travel, and Recreation

This report is a summary of Montana residents and their expectations related to spending, personal income, travel, and recreation over the next 12 months. ITRR conducted a similar study in 2019, aimed at understanding the current trends of consumer confidence in addition to residents\u27 expectations for travel plans over a one year time horizon. Since that time, much has changed, including the COVID-19 pandemic and increased demand for the MT tourism industry, rising gas prices, and inflation at historic levels. This report highlights residents\u27 sentiments regarding fuel prices, personal income, and travel

Adjustable Head Tube Angle Headset

This final design review report describes the design, manufacture, and test process of a bicycle headset capable of quickly and easily adjusting the effective head tube angle. The evolution of mountain bike geometry has forced bike designers to compromise between climbing and descending performance when choosing a head tube angle. A headset capable of quickly adjusting the effective head tube angle would allow riders to optimize their bike’s geometry for different stages of riding. This report details the research, idea generation, concept development and selection, design, manufacturing, and testing of our adjustable head tube angle headset

Montana Workforce Study - 2022

This report is a summary of Montana residents and their participation within the workforce during the first quarter (Jan-March) of 2022. This study was conducted to understand what part of the general resident population has worked in the service and hospitality industry since the beginning of 2020. Some topics include residents\u27 current work status and whether or not they left their job since the start of the pandemic (and why). The report also includes demographic information as well as analysis conducted on the six different travel regions within the state (Glacier, Southwest, Central, Yellowstone, Southeast, and Missouri River)

A test of the risk allocation hypothesis: tadpole responses to temporal change in predation risk

The risk allocation hypothesis predicts that temporal variation in predation risk can influence how animals allocate feeding behavior among situations that differ in danger. We tested the risk allocation model with tadpoles of the frog Rana lessonae, which satisfy the main assumptions of this model because they must feed to reach metamorphosis within a single season, their behavioral defense against predators is costly, and they can respond to changes in risk integrated over time. Our experiment switched tadpoles between artificial ponds with different numbers of caged dragonfly larvae and held them at high and low risk for different portions of their lives. Tadpoles responded strongly to predators, but they did not obey the risk allocation hypothesis: as the high-risk environment became more dangerous, there was no tendency for tadpoles to allocate more feeding to the low-risk environment, and as tadpoles spent more time at risk, they did not increase feeding in both environments. Our results suggest that the model might be more applicable when the time spent under high predation risk is large relative to the time required to collect resource

C6 Wheels

This document details the C6 Wheels project being undertaken for senior design. The objective is to design and manufacture carbon fiber reinforced polymer wheels for the Cal Poly Formula Society of Automotive Engineers (FSAE) team. The wheel shells will be used on FSAE’s competition vehicles. FSAE requested the wheels to improve the handling characteristics of their vehicles by reducing the unsprung and rotational mass. They have attempted carbon fiber wheels previously but have not yet run any on their vehicles. FSAE specifically proposed the design of carbon fiber shells with an aluminum center as opposed to full carbon fiber wheels on the recommendation of the 2018 attempt. C6 Wheels is responsible for designing the wheel shells—including interfacing with the aluminum centers, designing and manufacturing the mold tooling, and molding of the carbon fiber wheel shells—including any post machining. The aluminum centers are being designed and manufactured by the FSAE team