Teaching statistics to medical students using problem-based learning: the Australian experience

Background: Problem-based learning (PBL) is gaining popularity as a teaching method in UK medical schools, but statistics and research methods are not being included in this teaching. There are great disadvantages in omitting statistics and research methods from the main teaching. PBL is well established in Australian medical schools. The Australian experience in teaching statistics and research methods in curricula based on problem-based learning may provide guidance for other countries, such as the UK, where this method is being introduced. Methods: All Australian medical schools using PBL were visited, with two exceptions. Teachers of statistics and medical education specialists were interviewed. For schools which were not visited, information was obtained by email. Results: No Australian medical school taught statistics and research methods in a totally integrated way, as part of general PBL teaching. In some schools, statistical material was integrated but taught separately, using different tutors. In one school, PBL was used only for 'public health' related subjects. In some, a parallel course using more traditional techniques was given alongside the PBL teaching of other material. This model was less successful than the others. Conclusions: There are several difficulties in implementing an integrated approach. However, not integrating is detrimental to statistics and research methods teaching, which is of particular concern in the age of evidence-based medicine. Some possible ways forward are suggested

Stellar populations -- the next ten years

The study of stellar populations is a discipline that is highly dependent on both imaging and spectroscopy. I discuss techniques in different regimes of resolving power: broadband imaging (R~4), intermediate band imaging (R~16, 64), narrowband spectral imaging (R~256, 1024, 4096). In recent years, we have seen major advances in broadband all-sky surveys that are set to continue across optical and IR bands, with the added benefit of the time domain, higher sensitivity, and improved photometric accuracy. Tunable filters and integral field spectrographs are poised to make further inroads into intermediate and narrowband imaging studies of stellar populations. Further advances will come from AO-assisted imaging and imaging spectroscopy, although photometric accuracy will be challenging. Integral field spectroscopy will continue to have a major impact on future stellar population studies, extending into the near infrared once the OH suppression problem is finally resolved. A sky rendered dark will allow a host of new ideas to be explored, and old ideas to be revisited.Comment: Invited review, IAUS 241, "Stellar Populations as Building Blocks of Galaxies," eds. Vazdekis, Peletier. 12 pages, 1 table. (The sideways table should print ok; there are 10 columns.

Agreement between methods of measurement with multiple observations per individual

Limits of agreement provide a straightforward and intuitive approach to agreement between different methods for measuring the same quantity. When pairs of observations using the two methods are independent, i.e., on different subjects, the calculations are very simple and straightforward. Some authors collect repeated data, either as repeated pairs of measurements on the same subject, whose true value of the measured quantity may be changing, or more than one measurement by one or both methods of an unchanging underlying quantity. In this paper we describe methods for analysing such clustered observations, both when the underlying quantity is assumed to be changing and when it is not

Clinically important differences in the intensity of chronic refractory breathlessness

Context: Clinically important differences in chronic refractory breathlessness are ill defined but important in clinical practice and trial design. Objectives: To estimate the clinical relevance of differences in breathlessness intensity using distribution and patient anchor methods. Methods: This was a retrospective data analysis from 213 datasets from four clinical trials for refractory breathlessness. Linear regression was used to explore the relationship between study effect size and change in breathlessness score (0-100 mm visual analogue scale) and to estimate the change in score equivalent to small, moderate, and large effect sizes. Pooled individual blinded patient preference data from three randomized controlled trials were analyzed. The difference between the mean change in Day 4 minus baseline scores between preferred and non-preferred arms was calculated. Results: There was a strong relationship between change in score and effect size (P = 0.001; R 2 = 0.98). Values for small, moderate, and large effects were -5.5, -11.3, and -18.2 mm. The participant preference change in score was -9 mm (95% CI, -15.8, -2.1) (P = 0.008). Conclusion: This larger dataset supports a clinically important difference of 10 mm. Studies should be powered to detect this difference

The large scale distribution of warm ionized gas around nearby radio galaxies with jet-cloud interactions

Deep, narrow-band Halpha observations taken with the TAURUS Tunable Filter (TTF) on the 4.2m WHT telescope are presented for two nearby radio galaxies with strong jet-cloud interactions. Although the brightest emission line components are closely aligned with the radio jets --- providing nearby examples of the ``alignment effect'' most commonly observed in high redshift (z > 0.5) radio galaxies --- lower surface brightness emission line structures are detected at large distances (10's of kpc) from the radio jet axis. These latter structures cannot be reconciled with anisotropic illumination of the ISM by obscured quasar-like sources, since parts of the structures lay outside any plausible quasar ionization cones. Rather, the distribution of the emission lines around the fringes of the extended radio lobes suggests that the gas is ionized either by direct interaction with the radio components, or by the diffuse photoionizing radiation fields produced in the shocks generated in such interactions. These observations serve to emphasise that the ionizing effects of the radio components can extend far from the radio jet axes, and that deep emission line imaging observations are required to reveal the true distribution of warm gas in the host galaxies. We expect future deep imaging observations to reveal similar structures perpendicular to the radio axes in the high-z radio galaxies.Comment: 18 pages, 4 figures, to be published in MNRA

Missing data in randomized controlled trials testing palliative interventions pose a significant risk of bias and loss of power: a systematic review and meta-analyses

Objectives To assess the risk posed by missing data (MD) to the power and validity of trials evaluating palliative interventions. Study Design and Setting A systematic review of MD in published randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of palliative interventions in participants with life-limiting illnesses was conducted, and random-effects meta-analyses and metaregression were performed. CENTRAL, MEDLINE, and EMBASE (2009-2014) were searched with no language restrictions. Results One hundred and eight RCTs representing 15,560 patients were included. The weighted estimate for MD at the primary endpoint was 23.1% (95% confidence interval [CI] 19.3, 27.4). Larger MD proportions were associated with increasing numbers of questions/tests requested (odds ratio [OR] , 1.19; 95% CI 1.05, 1.35) and with longer study duration (OR, 1.09; 95% CI 1.02, 1.17). Meta-analysis found evidence of differential rates of MD between trial arms, which varied in direction (OR, 1.04; 95% CI 0.90, 1.20; I 2 35.9, P = 0.001). Despite randomization, MD in the intervention arms (vs. control) were more likely to be attributed to disease progression unrelated to the intervention (OR, 1.31; 95% CI 1.02, 1.69). This was not the case for MD due to death (OR, 0.92; 95% CI 0.78, 1.08). Conclusion The overall proportion and differential rates and reasons for MD reduce the power and potentially introduce bias to palliative care trials

One evidence base; three stories: do opioids relieve chronic breathlessness?

Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/. The efficacy of low-dose systemic opioids for chronic breathlessness was questioned by the recent Cochrane review by Barnes et al We examined the reasons for this conflicting finding and re-evaluated the efficacy of systemic opioids. Compared with previous meta-analyses, Barnes et al reported a smaller effect and lower precision, but did not account for matched data of crossover trials (11/12 included trials) and added a risk-of-bias criterion (sample size). When re-analysed to account for crossover data, opioids decreased breathlessness (standardised mean differences -0.32; -0.18 to -0.47; I2=44.8%) representing a clinically meaningful reduction of 0.8 points (0-10 numerical rating scale), consistent across meta-analyses

Cost effectiveness analysis of larval therapy for leg ulcers

Objective: To assess the cost effectiveness of larval therapy compared with hydrogel in the management of leg ulcers. Design: Cost effectiveness and cost utility analyses carried out alongside a pragmatic multicentre, randomised, open trial with equal randomisation. Population: Intention to treat population comprising 267 patients with a venous or mixed venous and arterial ulcers with at least 25% coverage of slough or necrotic tissue. Interventions: Patients were randomly allocated to debridement with bagged larvae, loose larvae, or hydrogel. Main outcome measure: The time horizon was 12 months and costs were estimated from the UK National Health Service perspective. Cost effectiveness outcomes are expressed in terms of incremental costs per ulcer-free day (cost effectiveness analysis) and incremental costs per quality adjusted life years (cost utility analysis). Results: The larvae arms were pooled for the main analysis. Treatment with larval therapy cost, on average, 96.70 pound ((sic)109.61; $140.57) more per participant per year (95% confidence interval -491.9 pound to 685.8) pound than treatment with hydrogel. Participants treated with larval therapy healed, on average, 2.42 days before those in the hydrogel arm (95% confidence interval -0.95 to 31. 91 days) and had a slightly better health related quality of life, as the annual difference in QALYs was 0.011 (95% confidence interval -0.067 to 0.071). However, none of these differences was statistically significant. The incremental cost effectiveness ratio for the base case analysis was estimated at 8826 pound per QALY gained and 40 pound per ulcer-free day. Considerable uncertainty surrounds the outcome estimates. Conclusions: Debridement of sloughy or necrotic leg ulcers with larval therapy is likely to produce similar health benefits and have similar costs to treatment with hydrogel. Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN55114812 and National Research Register N0484123692

Breathlessness in the elderly during the last year of life sufficient to restrict activity

OBJECTIVES: Breathlessness is prevalent in older people. Symptom control at the end of life is important. This study investigated relationships between age, clinical characteristics and breathlessness sufficient to have people spend at least one half a day in that month in bed or cut down on their usual activities (restricting breathlessness) during the last year of life. DESIGN: Secondary data-analysis SETTING: General community PARTICIPANTS: 754 non-disabled persons, aged 70 and older. Monthly telephone interviews were conducted to determine the occurrence of restricting breathlessness. The primary outcome was the percentage of months with restricting breathlessness reported during the last year of life. RESULTS: Data regarding breathlessness were available for 548/589 (93.0%) decedents (mean age 86.7 years (range 71 to 106; males 38.8%). 311/548 (56.8%) reported restricting breathlessness at some time-point during the last year of life but no-one reported this every month. Frequency increased in the months closer to death irrespective of cause. Restricting breathlessness was associated with anxiety, (0.25 percentage point increase in months breathlessness per percentage point months reported anxiety, 95% CI 0.16 to 0.34, P<0.001), depression (0.14, 0.05 to 0.24, P=0.002) and mobility problems (0.07, 0.03 to 0.1, P=0.001). Percentage months of restricting breathlessness increased if chronic lung disease was noted at the most recent comprehensive assessment (6.62 percentage points, 95% CI 4.31 to 8.94, P<0.001), heart failure (3.34, 0.71 to 5.97, P<0.01), and ex-smoker status (3.01, 0.94 to 5.07, P=0.002), but decreased with older age (─0.19, ─0.37 to ─0.02, P=0.03). CONCLUSION: Restricting breathlessness increased in this elderly population in the months preceding death from any cause. Breathlessness should be assessed and managed in the context of poor prognosis