Globalization and Emerging Markets: With or Without Crash?

This paper develops a theory of financial crisis based on the demand side of the economy. We analyze the impact of financial and trade globalizations on asset prices, investment and the possibility of self-fulfilling financial crashes. In a two-country model, we show that financial and trade globalizations have different effects on asset prices, investment and income in the emerging market and in the industrialized country. Whereas trade globalization always has a positive effect on the emerging market, financial globalization may not, especially when trade costs are high. For intermediate levels of financial transaction costs and high levels of trade costs, pessimistic expectations can be self-fulfilling and may lead to a collapse in demand for goods and assets of the emerging market. Such a crash in asset prices is accompanied by a current account reversal, a drop in income and investment and more market incompleteness. We show that countries with lower income are more prone to such demand-based financial crashes. Our model can replicate the main stylized facts of financial crashes in emerging markets. Our results strongly suggest that emerging markets should liberalize trade in goods before trade in assets.

Globalization and Emerging Markets: With or Without Crash?.

We analyze the effects of financial and trade globalization on the likelihood of financial crashes in emerging markets. While trade globalization always makes crashes less likely, financial globalization may make them more likely, especially when trade costs are high. Pessimistic expectations can be self-fulfilling and lead to a collapse in demand for goods and assets. Such a crash comes with a current account reversal and drops in income and investment. Lower-income countries are more prone to such demand-based financial crises. A quantitative evaluation shows our model is consistent with the main stylized facts of financial crashes in emerging markets.

Globalization and Emerging Markets: With or Without Crash?

We analyze the effects of financial and trade globalization on the likelihood of financial crashes in emerging markets. While trade globalization always makes crashes less likely, financial globalization may make them more likely, especially when trade costs are high. Pessimistic expectations can be self-fulfilling and lead to a collapse in demand for goods and assets. Such a crash comes with a current account reversal and drops in income and investment. Lower-income countries are more prone to such demand-based financial crises. A quantitative evaluation shows our model is consistent with the main stylized facts of financial crashes in emerging markets

Using an accumulation of deficits approach to measure frailty in a population of home care users with intellectual and developmental disabilities: an analytical descriptive study

Potential deficits within-category correlation. Unadjusted odds ratio for 1-year admission to long-term care and the 42 FI items, sorted from strongest to weakest association. (DOCX 16 kb

Jamais sans ma voiture ? Les banlieusards des franges de Québec

Le rapport à l’automobile de 70 résidents de secteurs périphériques de l’agglomération de Québec, non desservis par le transport en commun, est analysé à travers leurs comportements de mobilité, ainsi que leurs discours sur l’environnement et l’automobile. Leurs déplacements quotidiens varient beaucoup et tous les actifs ne se déplacent pas quotidiennement vers le centre-ville. Des différences selon l’âge et le sexe caractérisent non tant les comportements en tant que tels, mais plutôt le rapport affectif ou fonctionnel entretenu envers la voiture. Si les femmes aiment conduire leur voiture dans la même proportion que les hommes, ce n’est pas pour les mêmes raisons. Diminuer le recours à la voiture individuelle, ce serait transformer en profondeur tout un mode de vie ; comprendre ce mode de vie et ce pour quoi plusieurs personnes l’apprécient est essentiel dans l’atteinte de cet objectif.In terms of their relationship to the automobile, 70 residents of outlying districts of the Québec City area that are not served by public transit are analysed according to their mobility behaviours, and through their discourse on the environment and on the automobile. Their daily trips vary greatly, and not all employed individuals travel downtown on a daily basis. Differences according to age and gender come to light not so much in terms of their actual behaviours, but rather in terms of their emotional or functional relationships toward cars. While the same proportion of women enjoy driving their cars as men, it is not for the same reasons. Reducing the use of personal cars would deeply transform an entire way of life; an understanding of this way of life and why many appreciate it is essential to the achievement of this objective

La classe créative au secours des villes ?

ISSN : 2105-3030 Texte intégral à l'adresse : http://www.laviedesidees.fr/La-classe-creative-au-secours-des.htmlLa notion de classe créative a servi à formuler des politiques publiques misant le développement urbain sur les infrastructures susceptibles d'attirer les " concepteurs " de nos sociétés. Mais comme le montrent les résultats d'une enquête européenne, l'hypothèse ne tient pas : développer l'éducation et les infrastructures susceptibles de servir l'ensemble de la population serait une politique bien plus féconde

Estimating the effects of regulation when treated and control firms compete: a new method with application to the EU ETS

This paper presents a method for estimating treatment effects of regulations when treated and control firms compete on the output market. We develop a GMM estimator that recovers reduced-form parameters consistent with a model of differentiated product markets with multi-plant firms, and use these estimates to evaluate counterfactual revenues and emissions. Our procedure recovers unbiased estimates of treatment effects in Monte Carlo experiments, while difference-in-differences estimators and other popular methods do not. In an application, we find that the European carbon market reduced emissions at regulated plants without undermining revenues of regulated firms, relative to an unregulated counterfactual

Estimating the effects of regulation when treated and control firms compete: a new method with application to the EU ETS

This paper presents a method for estimating treatment effects of regulations when treated and control firms compete on the output market. We develop a GMM estimator that recovers reduced-form parameters consistent with a model of differentiated product markets with multi-plant firms, and use these estimates to evaluate counterfactual revenues and emissions. Our procedure recovers unbiased estimates of treatment effects in Monte Carlo experiments, while difference-in-differences estimators and other popular methods do not. In an application, we find that the European carbon market reduced emissions at regulated plants without undermining revenues of regulated firms, relative to an unregulated counterfactual