Modelos econométricos para determinar el comportamiento de la cartera comercial de los bancos privados grandes ecuatorianos en el periodo 2007-2015

En la presente investigación tiene como objetivo estudiar el comportamiento de la cartera comercial de los Bancos Privados Grandes desde 2007 hasta 2016. Para la investigación se realiza un breve análisis de la situación económica del país. De igual manera, se realiza un estudio del comportamiento del sistema financiero y de los actores que la conforman. Unos de los principales actores del sistema financiero son los bancos privados, de igual manera se realiza un análisis de situación para conocer como se ha ido comportando en estos años. Finalmente se llega a las entidades que son el objeto del estudio que se son los Bancos Privados Grandes según clasificación realizada por la Superintendencia de Bancos, que al cierre del 2016 lo conformaban Pichincha, Pacífico, Produbanco y Guayaquil. Adicional, se busca evaluar los resultados de trabajos empíricos realizados en otros países con la finalidad de construir un marco teórico acorde al tema propuesto. El enfoque del estudio se da en la cartera comercial de los Bancos Privados Grandes ya que esta cartera es representativa sobre el total cartera. El riesgo de crédito es una de los más importantes que lo manejan las instituciones financieras. Con esta investigación se busca establecer los determinantes del comportamiento de la cartera con el fin de manejar información que permita analizar posibles situaciones adversar que puedan provocar iliquidez y a su vez desencadenar una crisis financiera y económica. Para desarrollar el tema se presenta una descripción de los modelos econométricos a utilizar como son un univariante Autoregresivo Integrado Media Móvil (ARIMA) el cual permite realizar estimaciones de las variables microeconómicas para entender el comportamiento a corto plazo. El segundo modelo es multivariante conocido como Vectores Autorregresivos (VAR) el cual permite relacionar las variables macroeconómicas con el comportamiento de la cartera comercial. Finalmente, se realiza la aplicación de los modelos econométricos y se busca interpretar los resultandos obtenidos con el fin de determinar los factores que influyen en el comportamiento de la cartera comercial de los Bancos Privados Grandes para de esta manera poder contestar la pregunta de investigación y la validación de hipótesis

Techniques for measuring aerosol attenuation using the central laser facility at the Pierre Auger Observatory

The Pierre Auger Observatory in Malargue, Argentina, is designed to study the properties of ultra-high energy cosmic rays with energies above 10(18) eV. It is a hybrid facility that employs a Fluorescence Detector to perform nearly calorimetric measurements of Extensive Air Shower energies. To obtain reliable calorimetric information from the FD, the atmospheric conditions at the observatory need to be continuously monitored during data acquisition. In particular, light attenuation due to aerosols is an important atmospheric correction. The aerosol concentration is highly variable, so that the aerosol attenuation needs to be evaluated hourly. We use light from the Central Laser Facility, located near the center of the observatory site, having an optical signature comparable to that of the highest energy showers detected by the FD. This paper presents two procedures developed to retrieve the aerosol attenuation of fluorescence light from CLF laser shots. Cross checks between the two methods demonstrate that results from both analyses are compatible, and that the uncertainties are well understood. The measurements of the aerosol attenuation provided by the two procedures are currently used at the Pierre Auger Observatory to reconstruct air shower data

The rapid atmospheric monitoring system of the Pierre Auger Observatory

The Pierre Auger Observatory is a facility built to detect air showers produced by cosmic rays above 10^17 eV. During clear nights with a low illuminated moon fraction, the UV fluorescence light produced by air showers is recorded by optical telescopes at the Observatory. To correct the observations for variations in atmospheric conditions, atmospheric monitoring is performed at regular intervals ranging from several minutes (for cloud identification) to several hours (for aerosol conditions) to several days (for vertical profiles of temperature, pressure, and humidity). In 2009, the monitoring program was upgraded to allow for additional targeted measurements of atmospheric conditions shortly after the detection of air showers of special interest, e. g., showers produced by very high-energy cosmic rays or showers with atypical longitudinal profiles. The former events are of particular importance for the determination of the energy scale of the Observatory, and the latter are characteristic of unusual air shower physics or exotic primary particle types. The purpose of targeted (or "rapid") monitoring is to improve the resolution of the atmospheric measurements for such events. In this paper, we report on the implementation of the rapid monitoring program and its current status. The rapid monitoring data have been analyzed and applied to the reconstruction of air showers of high interest, and indicate that the air fluorescence measurements affected by clouds and aerosols are effectively corrected using measurements from the regular atmospheric monitoring program. We find that the rapid monitoring program has potential for supporting dedicated physics analyses beyond the standard event reconstruction

A search for anisotropy in the arrival directions of ultra high energy cosmic rays recorded at the Pierre Auger Observatory

Observations of cosmic rays arrival directions made with the Pierre Auger Observatory have previously provided evidence of anisotropy at the 99% CL using the correlation of ultra high energy cosmic rays (UHECRs) with objects drawn from the Veron-Cetty Veron catalog. In this paper we report on the use of three catalog independent methods to search for anisotropy. The 2pt-L, 2pt+ and 3pt methods, each giving a different measure of self-clustering in arrival directions, were tested on mock cosmic ray data sets to study the impacts of sample size and magnetic smearing on their results, accounting for both angular and energy resolutions. If the sources of UHECRs follow the same large scale structure as ordinary galaxies in the local Universe and if UHECRs are deflected no more than a few degrees, a study of mock maps suggests that these three method can efficiently respond to the resulting anisotropy with a P-value = 1.0% or smaller with data sets as few as 100 events. using data taken from January 1, 2004 to July 31, 2010 we examined the 20, 30, ... , 110 highest energy events with a corresponding minimum energy threshold of about 49.3 EeV. The minimum P-values found were 13.5% using the 2pt-L method, 1.0% using the 2pt+ method and 1.1% using the 3pt method for the highest 100 energy events. In view of the multiple (correlated) scans performed on the data set, these catalog-independent methods do not yield strong evidence of anisotropy in the highest energy cosmic rays

Antennas for the detection of radio emission pulses from cosmic-ray induced air showers at the Pierre Auger Observatory.

The Pierre Auger Observatory is exploring the potential of the radio detection technique to study extensive air showers induced by ultra-high energy cosmic rays. The Auger Engineering Radio Array (AERA) addresses both technological and scientific aspects of the radio technique. A first phase of AERA has been operating since September 2010 with detector stations observing radio signals at frequencies between 30 and 80 MHz. In this paper we present comparative studies to identify and optimize the antenna design for the final configuration of AERA consisting of 160 individual radio detector stations. The transient nature of the air shower signal requires a detailed description of the antenna sensor. As the ultra-wideband reception of pulses is not widely discussed in antenna literature, we review the relevant antenna characteristics and enhance theoretical considerations towards the impulse response of antennas including polarization effects and multiple signal reflections. On the basis of the vector effective length we study the transient response characteristics of three candidate antennas in the time domain. Observing the variation of the continuous galactic background intensity we rank the antennas with respect to the noise level added to the galactic signal

A search for point sources of EeV neutrons

A thorough search of the sky exposed at the Pierre Auger Cosmic Ray Observatory reveals no statistically significant excess of events in any small solid angle that would be indicative of a flux of neutral particles from a discrete source. The search covers from -90 degrees to +15 degrees in declination using four different energy ranges above 1 EeV (10(18) eV). The method used in this search is more sensitive to neutrons than to photons. The upper limit on a neutron flux is derived for a dense grid of directions for each of the four energy ranges. These results constrain scenarios for the production of ultrahigh energy cosmic rays in the Galaxy

Search for point-like sources of ultra-high energy neutrinos at the pierre auger observatory and improved limit on the diffuse flux of tau neutrinos

The surface detector array of the Pierre Auger Observatory can detect neutrinos with energy E_ν between 10^17 eV and 10^20 eV from point-like sources across the sky south of +55 degrees and north of -65 degrees declinations. A search has been performed for highly inclined extensive air showers produced by the interaction of neutrinos of all flavors in the atmosphere (downward-going neutrinos), and by the decay of tau leptons originating from tau neutrino interactions in Earth's crust (Earth-skimming neutrinos). No candidate neutrinos have been found in data up to 2010 May 31. This corresponds to an equivalent exposure of ∼3.5 years of a full surface detector array for the Earth-skimming channel and ∼2 years for the downward-going channel. An improved upper limit on the diffuse flux of tau neutrinos has been derived. Upper limits on the neutrino flux from point-like sources have been derived as a function of the source declination. Assuming a differential neutrino flux k_PS . E_nu^-2. from a point-like source, 90% confidence level upper limits for k_PS at the level of ≈5x10^-7 and 2.5x10^-6 GeV cm^-2 s^-1 have been obtained over a broad range of declinations from the searches for Earth-skimming and downward-going neutrinos, respectively

Magisterio, educación y humanidades

172 p.Diversas circunstancias del presente obligan a pensar acerca del papel de la formación humanística en todos los procesos educativos. Las manifestaciones de intolerancia, barbarie, corrupción, falta de pertenencia, ausencia de memoria histórica o espiritualidad, entre otros factores, llevan a analizar, en profundidad y con esperanza, los diferentes conflictos humanos. Así mismo, a procurar alzar la voz para ofrecer algunas reflexiones que iluminen posibilidades de diálogo y reconocimiento, las cuales colaboren con la reconstrucción del tejido social que, por la diversidad de manifestaciones de una realidad en crisis, necesita algunas pistas para atender las necesidades más apremiantes del contexto colombiano, aunque estas sean de carácter teórico, como las que se presentan en el siguiente volumen. La participación activa de los docentes del departamento de Humanidades de la Universidad Católica de Colombia, permite reconocer que cada quien, desde su campo disciplinar y académico, es consciente de la necesidad de asumir la vocería para reflexionar y dialogar sobre diversidad de temas y autores, que pueden orientar las posibilidades de comprensión frente a las situaciones que se viven en el día a día y que no son ajenas a las aulas de clase y a la cotidianidad de la comunidad universitaria. Es por ello que en este libro se presentan reflexiones en torno a: el papel de la educación política; la alteridad; la relación entre filosofía y pintura; los aportes del Magisterio de la Iglesia al concepto de funcionamiento familiar; la consciencia política; Jesucristo como el rostro de la felicidad cristiana; el desarrollo de la Constitución Pastoral Gaudium et Spes en las encíclicas de S.S. Benedicto XVI y su relación con la Doctrina Social de la Iglesia; algunas lecciones sobre la mujer y el hombre en el Magisterio; la pedagogía de la pregunta y la respuesta en la posibilidad de un proyecto de vida; la educación en el Magisterio Pontificio; y las enseñanzas de la teología del cuerpo.Prólogo 1. Educar para pensar políticamente: el papel de la educación política en el contexto colombiano 2. El lenguaje: camino hacia la alteridad 3. Merleau-Ponty: filosofía y pintura. La duda de Cézanne 4. Aportes del Magisterio de la Iglesia al concepto de funcionamiento familiar (APGAR) 5. De la ceguera a la lucidez: camino hacia una consciencia política 6. Jesucristo: el rostro de la felicidad cristiana 7. Desarrollo de la constitución pastoral Gaudium et spes en las encíclicas de S.S. Benedicto XVI y su relación con la Doctrina Social de la Iglesia 8. Algunas lecciones sobre la mujer y el hombre en el Magisterio 9. Un proyecto de vida desde la pedagogía de la pregunta y la respuesta 10. La educación en el Magisterio Pontificio: algunas enseñanzas de la teología del cuerpo Bibliografí

Inappropriate antibiotic use in the COVID-19 era: Factors associated with inappropriate prescribing and secondary complications. Analysis of the registry SEMI-COVID

Background: Most patients with COVID-19 receive antibiotics despite the fact that bacterial co-infections are rare. This can lead to increased complications, including antibacterial resistance. We aim to analyze risk factors for inappropriate antibiotic prescription in these patients and describe possible complications arising from their use. Methods: The SEMI-COVID-19 Registry is a multicenter, retrospective patient cohort. Patients with antibiotic were divided into two groups according to appropriate or inappropriate prescription, depending on whether the patient fulfill any criteria for its use. Comparison was made by means of multilevel logistic regression analysis. Possible complications of antibiotic use were also identified. Results: Out of 13,932 patients, 3047 (21.6%) were prescribed no antibiotics, 6116 (43.9%) were appropriately prescribed antibiotics, and 4769 (34.2%) were inappropriately prescribed antibiotics. The following were independent factors of inappropriate prescription: February-March 2020 admission (OR 1.54, 95%CI 1.18-2.00), age (OR 0.98, 95%CI 0.97-0.99), absence of comorbidity (OR 1.43, 95%CI 1.05-1.94), dry cough (OR 2.51, 95%CI 1.94-3.26), fever (OR 1.33, 95%CI 1.13-1.56), dyspnea (OR 1.31, 95%CI 1.04-1.69), flu-like symptoms (OR 2.70, 95%CI 1.75-4.17), and elevated C-reactive protein levels (OR 1.01 for each mg/L increase, 95% CI 1.00-1.01). Adverse drug reactions were more frequent in patients who received ANTIBIOTIC (4.9% vs 2.7%, p < .001). Conclusion: The inappropriate use of antibiotics was very frequent in COVID-19 patients and entailed an increased risk of adverse reactions. It is crucial to define criteria for their use in these patients. Knowledge of the factors associated with inappropriate prescribing can be helpful

Research on Devices for Handling Whole Slide Images on Pathology Workstations. An Ergonomic Outlook

Background Digital Pathology represents a technological innovation that introduces changes in the traditional tasks of pathologists. In this regard, an important issue that has not been enough emphasized is the image handling from an ergonomic point of view to avoid work-related musculoskeletal disorders (MSD). The aim of this study was to investigate a proper input device for digital pathology. Material & Methods Research was conducted in two phases: (1). A comparative study to find out an optimal external controller. Eight medical students analyzed 11 input devices: keyboard (Hewlett Packard, HP), conventional mouse (HP), vertical mouse (CLS), touchpad (Logitech), 3 trackballs (Logitech, Kensington Expert and Ulove), Rollermouse (Contour), Ergopointer (Märzhäuser Sensotech), gamepad (Logitech) and a touchless device (Leap Motion Controller), using them with the Image Viewer software (Ventana). The web-based Fitts´ law test (UC Berkeley) was used to objectify the accuracy of each used device, randomly. 12 items were included in the questionnaire: comfort, technical aspects (cursor movement and objective achievement), prospects, overall satisfaction, prior experience, and others. (2). Evaluation by two experienced pathologists of the best rated input device on the previous experiment and its comparison with a voice recognition system (Invox Medical Dictation, Vocali) using a headset microphone (Plantronics). Perceived workload was scored using the NASA Task Load Index on 28 whole slide images visualized on the Digital Image Hub (Leica) platform with a 4 MegaPixel display (Barco). Data were processed with SPSS 21.0. Results Correlation between technical aspects of the evaluated devices and accuracy (Fitts´ law test), and comfort with overall satisfaction, was demonstrated (p<0.05). Comparative analysis of the 11 input devices concluded that vertical mouse was the best rated input device. However, on the second phase of the study, we find a slightly higher perceived workload using this device than using the voice recognition system, which was the best controller in digital pathology from an ergonomic point of view in this study. Conclusions We describe a methodology that can study and compare input devices for future workstations in digital pathology. Pathologists should be involved in this process trying to find ergonomic devices that prevent MSD. Voice recognition can function as a good handsfree device for digital pathology and could be considered in physical disability situations. Further studies using electromyography, accelerometry and 3D reconstruction analysis could provide additional ergonomic information