A review of the role of spatial resolution in energy systems modelling:Lessons learned and applicability to the North Sea region

The importance of spatial resolution for energy modelling has increased in the last years. Incorporating more spatial resolution in energy models presents wide benefits, but it is not straightforward, as it might compromise their computational performance. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive review of spatial resolution in energy models, including benefits, challenges and future research avenues. The paper is divided in four parts: first, it reviews and analyses the applications of geographic information systems (GIS) for energy modelling in the literature. GIS analyses are found to be relevant to analyse how meteorology affects renewable production, to assess infrastructure needs, design and routing, and to analyse resource allocation, among others. Second, it analyses a selection of large scale energy modelling tools, in terms of how they can include spatial data, which resolution they have and to what extent this resolution can be modified. Out of the 34 energy models reviewed, 16 permit to include regional coverage, while 13 of them permit to include a tailor-made spatial resolution, showing that current available modelling tools permit regional analysis in large scale frameworks. The third part presents a collection of practices used in the literature to include spatial resolution in energy models, ranging from aggregated methods where the spatial granularity is non-existent to sophisticated clustering methods. Out of the spatial data clustering methods available in the literature, k-means and max-p have been successfully used in energy related applications showing promising results. K-means permits to cluster large amounts of spatial data at a low computational cost, while max-p ensures contiguity and homogeneity in the resulting clusters. The fourth part aims to apply the findings and lessons learned throughout the paper to the North Sea region. This region combines large amounts of planned deployment of variable renewable energy sources with multiple spatial claims and geographical constraints, and therefore it is ideal as a case study. We propose a complete modelling framework for the region in order to fill two knowledge gaps identified in the literature: the lack of offshore integrated system modelling, and the lack of spatial analysis while defining the offshore regions of the modelling framework

A Fuzzy k-Nearest Neighbors Classifier to Deal with Imperfect Data

© 2018. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ This document is the Accepted version of a Published Work that appeared in final form in Soft Computing. To access the final edited and published work see https://doi.org/10.1007/s00500-017-2567-xThe k-nearest neighbors method (kNN) is a nonparametric, instance-based method used for regression and classification. To classify a new instance, the kNN method computes its k nearest neighbors and generates a class value from them. Usually, this method requires that the information available in the datasets be precise and accurate, except for the existence of missing values. However, data imperfection is inevitable when dealing with real-world scenarios. In this paper, we present the kNNimp classifier, a k-nearest neighbors method to perform classification from datasets with imperfect value. The importance of each neighbor in the output decision is based on relative distance and its degree of imperfection. Furthermore, by using external parameters, the classifier enables us to define the maximum allowed imperfection, and to decide if the final output could be derived solely from the greatest weight class (the best class) or from the best class and a weighted combination of the closest classes to the best one. To test the proposed method, we performed several experiments with both synthetic and realworld datasets with imperfect data. The results, validated through statistical tests, show that the kNNimp classifier is robust when working with imperfect data and maintains a good performance when compared with other methods in the literature, applied to datasets with or without imperfection

From circular paths to elliptic orbits: A geometric approach to Kepler's motion

The hodograph, i.e. the path traced by a body in velocity space, was introduced by Hamilton in 1846 as an alternative for studying certain dynamical problems. The hodograph of the Kepler problem was then investigated and shown to be a circle, it was next used to investigate some other properties of the motion. We here propose a new method for tracing the hodograph and the corresponding configuration space orbit in Kepler's problem starting from the initial conditions given and trying to use no more than the methods of synthetic geometry in a sort of Newtonian approach. All of our geometric constructions require straight edge and compass only.Comment: 9 pages, 4 figure

Extracting relevant predictive variables for COVID-19 severity prognosis: An exhaustive comparison of feature selection techniques

With the COVID-19 pandemic having caused unprecedented numbers of infections and deaths, large research efforts have been undertaken to increase our understanding of the disease and the factors which determine diverse clinical evolutions. Here we focused on a fully data-driven exploration regarding which factors (clinical or otherwise) were most informative for SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia severity prediction via machine learning (ML). In particular, feature selection techniques (FS), designed to reduce the dimensionality of data, allowed us to characterize which of our variables were the most useful for ML prognosis. We conducted a multi-centre clinical study, enrolling n=1548 patients hospitalized due to SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia: where 792, 238, and 598 patients experienced low, medium and high-severity evolutions, respectively. Up to 106 patient-specific clinical variables were collected at admission, although 14 of them had to be discarded for containing ⩾60% missing values. Alongside 7 socioeconomic attributes and 32 exposures to air pollution (chronic and acute), these became d=148 features after variable encoding. We addressed this ordinal classification problem both as a ML classification and regression task. Two imputation techniques for missing data were explored, along with a total of 166 unique FS algorithm configurations: 46 filters, 100 wrappers and 20 embeddeds. Of these, 21 setups achieved satisfactory bootstrap stability (⩾0.70) with reasonable computation times: 16 filters, 2 wrappers, and 3 embeddeds. The subsets of features selected by each technique showed modest Jaccard similarities across them. However, they consistently pointed out the importance of certain explanatory variables. Namely: patient’s C-reactive protein (CRP), pneumonia severity index (PSI), respiratory rate (RR) and oxygen levels –saturation SpO2, quotients SpO2/RR and arterial SatO2/FiO2 –, the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) –to certain extent, also neutrophil and lymphocyte counts separately–, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), and procalcitonin (PCT) levels in blood. A remarkable agreement has been found a posteriori between our strategy and independent clinical research works investigating risk factors for COVID-19 severity. Hence, these findings stress the suitability of this type of fully data-driven approaches for knowledge extraction, as a complementary to clinical perspectives

Impact of outdoor air pollution on severity and mortality in COVID-19 pneumonia

The relationship between exposure to air pollution and the severity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia and other outcomes is poorly understood. Beyond age and comorbidity, risk factors for adverse outcomes including death have been poorly studied. The main objective of our study was to examine the relationship between exposure to outdoor air pollution and the risk of death in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia using individual-level data. The secondary objective was to investigate the impact of air pollutants on gas exchange and systemic inflammation in this disease. This cohort study included 1548 patients hospitalised for COVID-19 pneumonia between February and May 2020 in one of four hospitals. Local agencies supplied daily data on environmental air pollutants ($PM_{10}$, $PM_{2.5}$, $O_3$, $NO_2$, $NO$ and $NO_X$) and meteorological conditions (temperature and humidity) in the year before hospital admission (from January 2019 to December 2019). Daily exposure to pollution and meteorological conditions by individual postcode of residence was estimated using geospatial Bayesian generalised additive models. The influence of air pollution on pneumonia severity was studied using generalised additive models which included: age, sex, Charlson comorbidity index, hospital, average income, air temperature and humidity, and exposure to each pollutant. Additionally, generalised additive models were generated for exploring the effect of air pollution on C-reactive protein (CRP) level and Sp$O_2$/Fi$O_2$ at admission. According to our results, both risk of COVID-19 death and CRP level increased significantly with median exposure to $PM_{10}$, $NO_2$, $NO$ and $NO_X$, while higher exposure to $NO_2$, $NO$ and $NO_X$ was associated with lower Sp$O_2$/Fi$O_2$ ratios. In conclusion, after controlling for socioeconomic, demographic and health-related variables, we found evidence of a significant positive relationship between air pollution and mortality in patients hospitalised for COVID-19 pneumonia. Additionally, inflammation (CRP) and gas exchange (Sp$O_2$/Fi$O_2$) in these patients were significantly related to exposure to air pollution

El estatus socioeconómico influencia la condición física en adolescentes europeos : el estudio HELENA

Introduction: The influence of socioeconomic status on health-related fitness is not clear. Aim: To examine the influence of socioeconomic status on health-related fitness in adolescents. Methods: A total of 3,259 adolescents (15.0 ± 1.3 y) from the Healthy Lifestyle in Europe by Nutrition in Ado- lescence Cross-Sectional Study (HELENA-CSS) partici- pated in the study. Socioeconomic status was assessed by the family affluence scale (FAS). Speed-agility, muscular strength and cardiorespiratory fitness were assessed. Covariates included total body fat, physical activity and pubertal status. Results: Adolescents with high FAS had significantly higher fitness levels than their peers of lower FAS cate- gories except for speed-agility and handgrip in boys. Overall, the associations observed presented a medium to large effect size. Conclusion: These results suggest that socioeconomic status is positively associated with physical fitness in European adolescents independently of total body fat and habitual physical activityIntroducción: La influencia del estatus socioeconómico sobre la condición física en relación con la salud no está clara. Objetivo: Examinar la influencia del estatus socioeconómico sobre la condición física en relación con la salud en adolescentes. Metodología: Un total de 3259 adolescentes (15,0 ± 1,3 años) del “Healthy Lifestyle in Europe by Nutrition in Adolescence Cross-Sectional Study” (HELENA-CSS) participaron en el estudio. El estatus socioeconómico fue medido con una escala de riqueza familiar “family affluence scale (FAS)”. Se midieron velocidad-agilidad, fuerza muscular y capacidad aeróbica. Las covariables incluidas fueron grasa corporal total, actividad física y estadio madurativo. Resultados: Los adolescentes con alto FAS tuvieron significativamente mayores niveles de condición física que aquellos con bajo FAS exceptuando los tests de velocidad-agilidad y fuerza de prensión manual en chicos. En general, las asociaciones observadas presentaron un efecto del tamaño de la muestra (effect size) entre medio y largo. Conclusión: Estos resultados sugieren que el estatus socioeconómico esta positivamente asociado con la condición física en adolescentes Europeos independientemente de la grasa corporal total y el nivel de actividad física

Stabilization and reversal of child obesity in Andalusia using objective anthropometric measures by socioeconomic status

Background: Childhood obesity continues to be a significant public health issue worldwide. Recent national studies in Spain show a stable picture. However, prevalence and trends differ by socio-economic status, age, and region. We present the trend in childhood excess weight prevalence, aged 8–15 years, in Andalusia from 2011-2012 to 2015–2016 by socio-economic status. Results: Overall prevalence of excess weight decreased from 42.0% in 2011–2012 to 35.4% in 2015–2016. Overweight decreased from 28.2 to 24.2% and obesity from 13.8 to 11.2%. In 2011–2012 the prevalence of excess weight in boys was 46.0%and 37.9% in girls; in 2015–2016 the difference became significant with 41% of boys with excess weight compared with 30% in girls. Conclusions: Childhood excess weight prevalence in Andalusia has decreased slightly between 2011-2012 and 2015–2016. Notably, a decrease in obesity prevalence in girls aged 8–15 years was recorded. In 2011–2012 a social gradient for excess weight prevalence across three SES indicators was observed: in 2015–2016 this gradient disappeared. Nonetheless, prevalence remains too high

Predicción de la gravedad de neumonías por SARS-CoV-2 a partir de información clínica y contaminación, mediante inteligencia artificial

Introducción La contaminación del aire exterior se ha relacionado con mayor gravedad de las infecciones respiratorias. Por tanto, su inclusión en algoritmos predictivos podrían añadir información para pronosticar la gravedad de neumonías SARS-CoV-2. Material y métodos Estudio observacional longitudinal retrospectivo de cohortes, multicéntrico en 4 hospitales. Se incluyeron ingresos por neumonía SARS-CoV-2 en el primer pico epidémico de COVID-19 (febrero-mayo 2020). Se recogieron hasta 93 variables clínicas, analíticas y radiológicas por cada paciente (sexo, edad, peso, comorbilidades, síntomas, variables fisiológicas en urgencias, sangre, gasometría, etc.). Además, se calcularon los niveles exposición a contaminación por PM$_{10}$, PM$_{2.5}$, O$_{3}$, NO$_{2}$, NO, NO$_{X}$, SO$_{2}$ y CO en su código postal. En función de la evolución clínica de la neumonía, se definieron 3 niveles de gravedad [Tabla 1]. Para predecir dicha gravedad, se desarrolló un algoritmo de inteligencia artificial (IA), tipo ‘Random Forest’ con balanceo y ajuste automático de sus parámetros internos. El algoritmo se entrenó y evaluó mediante 20 repeticiones de validación cruzada 10-fold (90% entrenamiento, 10% validación), estratificando aleatoriamente por hospital y gravedad. Resultados En los conjuntos de validación, el algoritmo alcanzó una capacidad predictiva (área bajo la curva ROC) promedio AUC=0.834 para gravedad nivel 0, AUC=0.724 para 1 y AUC=0.850 para 2 [Figura 1]. Sin la información de contaminantes, su capacidad predictiva se degradó ligeramente (AUCs = 0.829, 0.722, 0.844; respectivamente). Conclusiones Nuestro algoritmo IA es capaz de predecir de manera satisfactoria la evolución de la gravedad en la neumonía; en particular para los casos más leves y más severos. El algoritmo IA extrae las reglas más relevantes a partir principalmente de la información clínica, analítica y radiológica de cada individuo; no obstante, la incorporación de la exposición a contaminantes mejora ligeramente la capacidad predictiva. El impacto de la contaminación podría estar ya reflejado en las analíticas de sangre, a través de su efecto en los niveles de inflamación del paciente (PCT, PCR, LDH, etc.)

Impacto cuantitativo de la contaminación en la probabilidad de muerte por neumonía por SARS-CoV-2

Introducción La evidencia científica disponible señala que la contaminación del aire exterior podría agravar la severidad de la COVID-19 y por ende, incrementar las probabilidades de fallecimiento. Material y métodos Estudio observacional longitudinal retrospectivo de cohortes, multicéntrico en 4 hospitales: 2 en Bizkaia (1 urbano, 1 urbano-rural), Valencia y Barcelona (urbanos). Se incluyeron ingresos por neumonía SARS-CoV-2 en el primer pico epidémico de COVID-19 (febrero-mayo 2020). Para determinar la exposición a contaminación por PM$_{10}$ y NO$_{2}$, se obtuvieron los datos publicados por los organismos autonómicos de calidad del aire, para 2019 y 1er semestre 2020. Se utilizó un Modelo Aditivo Generalizado (GAM) para estimar el nivel diario de contaminante en cada código postal, en función de las coordenadas geográficas y la altitud de las estaciones de medición [Figura 1]. Para determinar la exposición crónica, se calcularon media y máximo en 2019; la aguda se caracterizó por media y máximo en los 7 días anteriores al ingreso. Se estudió la razón de probabilidades (‘odds ratio’, OR) de muerte frente a supervivencia entre nuestra cohorte. Se modeló mediante un GAM con regresión logística, incorporando como efectos fijos sexo, edad y contaminante; hospital como efecto aleatorio e índice de comorbilidad de Charlson como función suave mediantes splines penalizados. Resultados De los 1548 pacientes reclutados, 243 (15.7%) fallecieron durante su hospitalización y/o 30 días postingreso. Según los modelos [Tabla 1], existe evidencia estadística significativa de que la exposición crónica a PM$_{10}$ y NO$_{2}$ incrementan la probabilidad de muerte por neumonía SARS-CoV-2. Compensando por sexo, edad y Charlson -todos factores relacionados positivamente con el OR de muerte- así como por hospital; por cada incremento de 10 μg/m$^{3}$ en el nivel de PM$_{10}$ (máximo anual) el OR aumenta en 10.5%, linealmente proporcional al incremento en la contaminación. Mientras, cada 10 μg/m$^{3}$ más de NO2 (media anual) aumentan OR en 35.7%; cada 10 μg/m$^{3}$ más en exposición aguda a NO2 (media semana pre-ingreso): 62.9%; y NO$_{2}$ (máximo semana): 34.4%. Conclusiones Se cuantificaron y compensaron los efectos de los factores sexo, edad, Charlson y hospital. A igualdad de estos, incrementos en la exposición crónica y aguda a PM$_{10}$ y NO$_{2}$ aumentan de manera lineal y estadísticamente significativa la probabilidad de muerte por neumonía SARS-CoV-2