Using Simulation Models to Evaluate Ape Nest Survey Techniques

BACKGROUND: Conservationists frequently use nest count surveys to estimate great ape population densities, yet the accuracy and precision of the resulting estimates are difficult to assess. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used mathematical simulations to model nest building behavior in an orangutan population to compare the quality of the population size estimates produced by two of the commonly used nest count methods, the 'marked recount method' and the 'matrix method.' We found that when observers missed even small proportions of nests in the first survey, the marked recount method produced large overestimates of the population size. Regardless of observer reliability, the matrix method produced substantial overestimates of the population size when surveying effort was low. With high observer reliability, both methods required surveying approximately 0.26% of the study area (0.26 km(2) out of 100 km(2) in this simulation) to achieve an accurate estimate of population size; at or above this sampling effort both methods produced estimates within 33% of the true population size 50% of the time. Both methods showed diminishing returns at survey efforts above 0.26% of the study area. The use of published nest decay estimates derived from other sites resulted in widely varying population size estimates that spanned nearly an entire order of magnitude. The marked recount method proved much better at detecting population declines, detecting 5% declines nearly 80% of the time even in the first year of decline. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These results highlight the fact that neither nest surveying method produces highly reliable population size estimates with any reasonable surveying effort, though either method could be used to obtain a gross population size estimate in an area. Conservation managers should determine if the quality of these estimates are worth the money and effort required to produce them, and should generally limit surveying effort to 0.26% of the study area, unless specific management goals require more intensive sampling. Using site- and time- specific nest decay rates (or the marked recount method) are essential for accurate population size estimation. Marked recount survey methods with sufficient sampling effort hold promise for detecting population declines

The Seroepidemiology of Haemophilus influenzae Type B Prior to Introduction of an Immunization Programme in Kathmandu, Nepal.

Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) is now recognized as an important pathogen in Asia. To evaluate disease susceptibility, and as a marker of Hib transmission before routine immunization was introduced in Kathmandu, 71 participants aged 7 months-77 years were recruited and 15 cord blood samples were collected for analysis of anti-polyribosylribitol phosphate antibody levels by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Only 20% of children under 5 years old had levels considered protective (>0.15 µg/ml), rising to 83% of 15-54 year-olds. Prior to introduction of Hib vaccine in Kathmandu, the majority of young children were susceptible to disease

ERK1/2 signaling dominates over RhoA signaling in regulating early changes in RNA expression induced by endothelin-1 in neonatal rat cardiomyocytes

Cardiomyocyte hypertrophy is associated with changes in gene expression. Extracellular signal-regulated kinases 1/2 (ERK1/2) and RhoA [activated by hypertrophic agonists (e.g. endothelin-1)] regulate gene expression and are implicated in the response, but their relative significance in regulating the cardiomyocyte transcriptome is unknown. Our aim was to establish the significance of ERK1/2 and/or RhoA in the early cardiomyocyte transcriptomic response to endothelin-1.Cardiomyocytes were exposed to endothelin-1 (1 h) with/without PD184352 (to inhibit ERK1/2) or C3 transferase (C3T, to inhibit RhoA). RNA expression was analyzed using microarrays and qPCR. ERK1/2 signaling positively regulated approximately 65% of the early gene expression response to ET-1 with a small (approximately 2%) negative effect, whereas RhoA signaling positively regulated approximately 10% of the early gene expression response to ET-1 with a greater (approximately 14%) negative contribution. Of RNAs non-responsive to endothelin-1, 66 or 448 were regulated by PD184352 or C3T, respectively, indicating that RhoA had a more significant effect on baseline RNA expression. mRNAs upregulated by endothelin-1 encoded a number of receptor ligands (e.g. Ereg, Areg, Hbegf) and transcription factors (e.g. Abra/Srf) that potentially propagate the response.ERK1/2 dominates over RhoA in the early transcriptomic response to endothelin-1. RhoA plays a major role in maintaining baseline RNA expression but, with upregulation of Abra/Srf by endothelin-1, RhoA may regulate changes in RNA expression over longer times. Our data identify ERK1/2 as a more significant node than RhoA in regulating the early stages of cardiomyocyte hypertrophy

Children’s sedentary behaviour: descriptive epidemiology and associations with objectively-measured sedentary time

Background: Little is known regarding the patterning and socio-demographic distribution of multiple sedentary behaviours in children. The aims of this study were to: 1) describe the leisure-time sedentary behaviour of 9-10 year old British children, and 2) establish associations with objectively-measured sedentary time. Methods: Cross-sectional analysis in the SPEEDY study (Sport, Physical activity and Eating behaviour: Environmental Determinants in Young people) (N=1513, 44.3% boys). Twelve leisure-time sedentary behaviours were assessed by questionnaire. Objectively-measured leisure-time sedentary time (Actigraph GT1M, <100 counts/minute) was assessed over 7 days. Differences by sex and socioeconomic status (SES) in self-reported sedentary behaviours were tested using Kruskal-Wallis tests. The association between objectively-measured sedentary time and the separate sedentary behaviours (continuous (minutes) and categorised into 'none' 'low' or 'high' participation) was assessed using multi-level linear regression. Results: Sex differences were observed for time spent in most sedentary behaviours (all p ≤ 0.02), except computer use. Girls spent more time in combined non-screen sedentary behaviour (median, interquartile range: girls: 770.0 minutes, 390.0-1230.0; boys: 725.0, 365.0 - 1182.5; p = 0.003), whereas boys spent more time in screen-based behaviours (girls: 540.0, 273.0 - 1050.0; boys: 885.0, 502.5 - 1665.0; p < 0.001). Time spent in five non-screen behaviours differed by SES, with higher values in those of higher SES (all p ≤ 0.001). Regression analyses with continuous exposures indicated that reading (β = 0.1, p < 0.001) and watching television (β = 0.04, p < 0.01) were positively associated with objectively-measured sedentary time, whilst playing board games (β = -0.12, p < 0.05) was negatively associated. Analysed in categorical form, sitting and talking (vs. none: 'low' β = 26.1,ns; 'high' 30.9, p < 0.05), playing video games (vs. none: 'low' β = 49.1, p < 0.01; 'high' 60.2, p < 0.01) and watching television (vs. lowest tertile: middle β = 22.2,ns; highest β = 31.9, p < 0.05) were positively associated with objectively-measured sedentary time whereas talking on the phone (vs. none: 'low' β = -38.5, p < 0.01; 'high' -60.2, p < 0.01) and using a computer/internet (vs. none: 'low' β = -30.7, p < 0.05; 'high' -4.2,ns) were negatively associated. Conclusions: Boys and girls and children of different socioeconomic backgrounds engage in different leisure-time sedentary behaviours. Whilst a number of behaviours may be predictive of total sedentary time, collectively they explain little overall variance. Future studies should consider a wide range of sedentary behaviours and incorporate objective measures to quantify sedentary time where possible

Declining Orangutan Encounter Rates from Wallace to the Present Suggest the Species Was Once More Abundant

BACKGROUND: Bornean orangutans (Pongo pygmaeus) currently occur at low densities and seeing a wild one is a rare event. Compared to present low encounter rates of orangutans, it is striking how many orangutan each day historic collectors like Alfred Russel Wallace were able to shoot continuously over weeks or even months. Does that indicate that some 150 years ago encounter rates with orangutans, or their densities, were higher than now? METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We test this hypothesis by quantifying encounter rates obtained from hunting accounts, museum collections, and recent field studies, and analysing whether there is a declining trend over time. Logistic regression analyses of our data support such a decline on Borneo between the mid-19th century and the present. Even when controlled for variation in the size of survey and hunting teams and the durations of expeditions, mean daily encounter rates appear to have declined about 6-fold in areas with little or no forest disturbance. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This finding has potential consequences for our understanding of orangutans, because it suggests that Bornean orangutans once occurred at higher densities. We explore potential explanations-habitat loss and degradation, hunting, and disease-and conclude that hunting fits the observed patterns best. This suggests that hunting has been underestimated as a key causal factor of orangutan density and distribution, and that species population declines have been more severe than previously estimated based on habitat loss only. Our findings may require us to rethink the biology of orangutans, with much of our ecological understanding possibly being based on field studies of animals living at lower densities than they did historically. Our approach of quantifying species encounter rates from historic data demonstrates that this method can yield valuable information about the ecology and population density of species in the past, providing new insight into species' conservation needs

Weight management interventions in adults with intellectual disabilities and obesity: a systematic review of the evidence

o evaluate the clinical effectiveness of weight management interventions in adults with intellectual disabilities (ID) and obesity using recommendations from current clinical guidelines for the first line management of obesity in adults. Full papers on lifestyle modification interventions published between 1982 to 2011 were sought by searching the Medline, Embase, PsycINFO and CINAHL databases. Studies were evaluated based on 1) intervention components, 2) methodology, 3) attrition rate 4) reported weight loss and 5) duration of follow up. Twenty two studies met the inclusion criteria. The interventions were classified according to inclusion of the following components: behaviour change alone, behaviour change plus physical activity, dietary advice or physical activity alone, dietary plus physical activity advice and multi-component (all three components). The majority of the studies had the same methodological limitations: no sample size justification, small heterogeneous samples, no information on randomisation methodologies. Eight studies were classified as multi-component interventions, of which one study used a 600 kilocalorie (2510 kilojoule) daily energy deficit diet. Study durations were mostly below the duration recommended in clinical guidelines and varied widely. No study included an exercise program promoting 225–300 minutes or more of moderate intensity physical activity per week but the majority of the studies used the same behaviour change techniques. Three studies reported clinically significant weight loss (&#8805; 5%) at six months post intervention. Current data indicate weight management interventions in those with ID differ from recommended practice and further studies to examine the effectiveness of multi-component weight management interventions for adults with ID and obesity are justified

Techniques to increase lumbar puncture success in newborn babies: the NeoCLEAR RCT

BackgroundLumbar puncture is an essential tool for diagnosing meningitis. Neonatal lumbar puncture, although frequently performed, has low success rates (50–60%). Standard technique includes lying infants on their side and removing the stylet ‘late’, that is, after the needle is thought to have entered the cerebrospinal fluid. Modifications to this technique include holding infants in the sitting position and removing the stylet ‘early’, that is, following transection of the skin. To the best of our knowledge, modified techniques have not previously been tested in adequately powered trials.ObjectivesThe aim of the Neonatal Champagne Lumbar punctures Every time – An RCT (NeoCLEAR) trial was to compare two modifications to standard lumbar puncture technique, that is, use of the lying position rather than the sitting position and of ‘early’ rather than ‘late’ stylet removal, in terms of success rates and short-term clinical, resource and safety outcomes.MethodsThis was a multicentre 2 × 2 factorial pragmatic non-blinded randomised controlled trial. Infants requiring lumbar puncture (with a working weight ≥ 1000 g and corrected gestational age from 27+0 to 44+0 weeks), and whose parents provided written consent, were randomised by web-based allocation to lumbar puncture (1) in the sitting or lying position and (2) with early or late stylet removal. The trial was powered to detect a 10% absolute risk difference in the primary outcome, that is, the percentage of infants with a successful lumbar puncture (cerebrospinal fluid containing 2.5 kg (971/1076, 90.2%). Baseline characteristics were balanced across groups. In terms of the primary outcome, the sitting position was significantly more successful than lying [346/543 (63.7%) vs. 307/533 (57.6%), adjusted risk ratio 1.10 (95% confidence interval 1.01 to 1.21); p = 0.029; number needed to treat = 16 (95% confidence interval 9 to 134)]. There was no significant difference in the primary outcome between early stylet removal and late stylet removal [338/545 (62.0%) vs. 315/531 (59.3%), adjusted risk ratio 1.04 (95% confidence interval 0.94 to 1.15); p = 0.447]. Resource consumption was similar in all groups, and all techniques were well tolerated and safe.LimitationsThis trial predominantly recruited term-born infants who were 2.5 kg. The impact of practitioners’ seniority and previous experience of different lumbar puncture techniques was not investigated. Limited data on resource use were captured, and parent/practitioner preferences were not assessed.ConclusionLumbar puncture success rate was higher with infants in the sitting position but was not affected by timing of stylet removal. Lumbar puncture is a safe, well-tolerated and simple technique without additional cost, and is easily learned and applied. The results support a paradigm shift towards sitting technique as the standard position for neonatal lumbar puncture, especially for term-born infants during the first 3 days of life.Future workThe superiority of the sitting lumbar puncture technique should be tested in larger populations of premature infants, in those aged > 3 days and outside neonatal care settings. The effect of operators’ previous practice and the impact on family experience also require further investigation, alongside in-depth analyses of healthcare resource utilisation. Future studies should also investigate other factors affecting lumbar puncture success, including further modifications to standard technique.Trial registrationThis trial is registered as ISRCTN14040914 and as Integrated Research Application System registration 223737.FundingThis award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (NIHR award ref: 15/188/106) and is published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 27, No. 33. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information

Informing the design of a national screening and treatment programme for chronic viral hepatitis in primary care: qualitative study of at-risk immigrant communities and healthcare professionals

n Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise statedThis paper presents independent research funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) under the Programme Grants for Applied Research programme (RP-PG-1209-10038).

Investor heterogeneity and the cross-section of U.K. investment trust performance

We use the upper and lower bounds derived by Ferson and Lin (2010) to examine the impact of investor heterogeneity on the performance of U.K. investment trusts relative to alternative linear factor models. We find using the upper bounds that investor heterogeneity has an important impact for nearly all investment trusts. The upper bounds are large in economic terms and significantly different from zero. We find no evidence of any trusts where all investors agree on the sign of performance beyond what we expect by chance. Using the lower bound, we find that trusts with a larger disagreement about trust performance have a weaker relation between the trust premium and past Net Asset Value (NAV) performance

Differential Roles of the PKC Novel Isoforms, PKCδ and PKCε, in Mouse and Human Platelets

Background Increasing evidence suggests that individual isoforms of protein kinase C (PKC) play distinct roles in regulating platelet activation. Methodology/Principal Findings In this study, we focus on the role of two novel PKC isoforms, PKCδ and PKCε, in both mouse and human platelets. PKCδ is robustly expressed in human platelets and undergoes transient tyrosine phosphorylation upon stimulation by thrombin or the collagen receptor, GPVI, which becomes sustained in the presence of the pan-PKC inhibitor, Ro 31-8220. In mouse platelets, however, PKCδ undergoes sustained tyrosine phosphorylation upon activation. In contrast the related isoform, PKCε, is expressed at high levels in mouse but not human platelets. There is a marked inhibition in aggregation and dense granule secretion to low concentrations of GPVI agonists in mouse platelets lacking PKCε in contrast to a minor inhibition in response to G protein-coupled receptor agonists. This reduction is mediated by inhibition of tyrosine phosphorylation of the FcRγ-chain and downstream proteins, an effect also observed in wild-type mouse platelets in the presence of a PKC inhibitor. Conclusions These results demonstrate a reciprocal relationship in levels of the novel PKC isoforms δ and ε in human and mouse platelets and a selective role for PKCε in signalling through GPVI