Meteorological forecasting for the European Southern observatory in Chile

The potential of numerical weather prediction to supply a useful support to flexible scheduling of astronomical observations is investigated. We applied some common tools presently used in numerical meteorology at regional scale in order to evaluate the ability to forecast local meteorological conditions (cloud cover, air temperature and wind speed) at Cerro Paranal and Cerro La Silla in Chile, where telescopes of ESO (the European Southern Observatory) are sited. The first part of this paper is devoted to evaluating the accuracy of analysis and forecasts of the ECMWF (European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecast) general circulation model for ESO needs. With this aim, analysis and 24-48 hour forecasts from ECMWF are systematically compared with observations at the ground meteorological stations of Paranal and La Silla, and with vertical profiles of radiosounding launches at Antofagasta and Quintero. The second part of this paper is aimed at improving the ECMWF forecasts at telescope sites by means of Kalman filter statistical post-processing and meteorological limited area modeling. Encouraging results are obtained concerning temperature, whereas much less satisfactory results are obtained for wind field and cloud cover. The most critical aspects of atmospheric dynamics affecting the local forecast are discussed within the limits of available information

Implementazione del modello SWAT per uno studio metodologico sull'utilizzo dei dati di un modello meteorologico a scala regionale in un modello idrologico a scala di bacino

In questo lavoro si è cercato di accostare due campi di ricerca tradizionalmente separati: la meteorologia, che verrà introdotta nella prima parte, e l’idrologia, di cui si parlerà nella seconda. Entrambe hanno come scopo la previsione di eventi naturali, quali, per esempio, gli uragani e le alluvioni per la meteorologia e le onde di piena, per l’idrologia. In questo lavoro utilizzeremo una gerarchia di applicazioni: limited area model (LAM), per quanto riguarda la meteorologia, geographic information systems (GIS), per la gestione della topografia e l’utilizzo del suolo ed il modello Soil and Water Assesment Tool (SWAT), per l’idrologia, mediante le quali, a partire dalla scala globale, saremo in grado di simulare un vento di precipitazione intensa e a simulare i suoi effetti in termini di deflusso al suolo. Il caso di studio è relativo ad un evento di precipitazione particolarmente intenso verificatosi nel novembre del 1999 in Sardegna. Le numerose problematiche legate all’integrazione dei tre strumenti applicativi e dei risultati provenienti da ognuno di essi (si pensi al downscaling dei campi di precipitazione per passare dalla scala regionale a quella di bacino) non verranno affrontate perché non sono lo scopo di questo lavoro. Si sono effettuate una serie di simulazioni idrologiche usando l’interfaccia GIS di SWAT2000 partendo dai dati di precipitazione generati dal modello atmosferico sulla Sardegna e effettuando un confronto con i risultati ottenuti mediante dati di precipitazione misurati al suolo e dati costruiti teoricamente

Regional climate models' performance in representing precipitation and temperature over selected Mediterranean areas

This paper discusses the relative performance of several climate models in providing reliable forcing for hydrological modeling in six representative catchments in the Mediterranean region. We consider 14 Regional Climate Models (RCMs), from the EU-FP6 ENSEMBLES project, run for the A1B emission scenario on a common 0.22° (about 24 km) rotated grid over Europe and the Mediterranean region. In the validation period (1951 to 2010) we consider daily precipitation and surface temperatures from the observed data fields (E-OBS) data set, available from the ENSEMBLES project and the data providers in the ECA&D project. Our primary objective is to rank the 14 RCMs for each catchment and select the four best-performing ones to use as common forcing for hydrological models in the six Mediterranean basins considered in the EU-FP7 CLIMB project. Using a common suite of four RCMs for all studied catchments reduces the (epistemic) uncertainty when evaluating trends and climate change impacts in the 21st century. We present and discuss the validation setting, as well as the obtained results and, in some detail, the difficulties we experienced when processing the data. In doing so we also provide useful information and advice for researchers not directly involved in climate modeling, but interested in the use of climate model outputs for hydrological modeling and, more generally, climate change impact studies in the Mediterranean region

Tourism and Economic Globalization: An Emerging Research Agenda

Globalization characterizes the economic, social, political, and cultural spheres of the modern world. Tourism has long been claimed as a crucial force shaping globalization, while in turn the developments of the tourism sector are under the influences of growing interdependence across the world. As globalization proceeds, destination countries have become more and more susceptible to local and global events. By linking the existing literature coherently, this study explores a number of themes on economic globalization in tourism. It attempts to identify the forces underpinning globalization and assess the implications on both the supply side and the demand side of the tourism sector. In view of a lack of quantitative evidence, future directions for empirical research have been suggested to investigate the interdependence of tourism demand, the convergence of tourism productivity, and the impact of global events