Mutual Absolute Continuity of Multiple Priors

This note provides a behavioral characterization of mutually absolutely continuous multiple priors.Mutual absolute continuity, Multiple priors

Coarse contingencies and ambiguity

The paper considers an agent who must choose an action today under uncertainty about the consequence of any chosen action but without having in mind a complete list of all the contingencies that could influence outcomes. She conceives of some relevant (subjective) contingencies but she is aware that these contingencies are coarse---they leave out some details that may affect outcomes. Though she may not be able to describe these finer details, she is aware that they exist and this may affect her behavior.Uncertainty, states of the world, ambiguity, coarse contingencies

Coarse Contingencies

The paper considers an agent who must choose an action today under uncertainty about the consequence of any chosen action but without having in mind a complete list of all the contingencies that could influence outcomes. She conceives of some relevant (subjective) contingencies but she is aware that these contingencies are coarse - they leave out some details that may affect outcomes. Though she may not be able to describe these finer details, she is aware that they exist and this may affect her behavior.Unforeseen Contingencies, Ambiguity, Menu Choices

Mortality by education level at late-adult ages in Turin: a survival analysis using frailty models with period and cohort approaches

OBJECTIVES: Neglecting the presence of unobserved heterogeneity in survival analysis models has been showed to potentially lead to underestimating the effect of the covariates included in the analysis. This study aimed to investigate the role of unobserved heterogeneity of frailty on the estimation of mortality differentials from age 50 on by education level. DESIGN: Longitudinal mortality follow-up of the census-based Turin population linked with the city registry office. SETTING: Italian North-Western city of Turin, observation window 1971–2007. POPULATION: 391 170 men and 456 216 women followed from age 50. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Mortality rate ratios obtained from survival analysis regression. Models were estimated with and without the component of unobserved heterogeneity of frailty and controlling for mortality improvement over time from both cohort and period perspectives. RESULTS: In the majority of cases, the models without frailty estimated a smaller educational gradient than the models with frailty. CONCLUSIONS: The results draw the attention of the potential underestimation of the mortality inequalities by socioeconomic levels in survival analysis models when not controlling for unobserved heterogeneity of frailty

HIV-associated Cutaneous Dissemination of Visceral Leishmaniasis, Despite Negligible Immunodeficiency. Failure of Liposomal Amphotericin B Administration, Followed by Successful Pentamidine-Paromomycin Administration

and post hoc Tukey test. Statistical analysis of survival time was carried out with Kaplan-Meier (Log-Rank) test. Results: The immunized mice with this DNA vaccine presented an important reduction in diameter of lesion and increasing of weight compared to the control mice and was indicated a significant difference between the immunized group and the control groups (p < 0.05). The survival time of the immunized mice was significantly higher than the control groups (p < 0.05) after challenge with Leishmania major. The immunized mice had significantly lower parasite load compared to the control mice (p < 0.05). Conclusion: The findings of this study, indicated that the TSA encoded DNA vaccine induced protection against infection with Leishmania major in mice. In this study, we demonstrated that, the TSA -encoded DNA vaccine may be an excellent candidate for futher vaccine development

Strong laws of large numbers for sub-linear expectations

We investigate three kinds of strong laws of large numbers for capacities with a new notion of independently and identically distributed (IID) random variables for sub-linear expectations initiated by Peng. It turns out that these theorems are natural and fairly neat extensions of the classical Kolmogorov's strong law of large numbers to the case where probability measures are no longer additive. An important feature of these strong laws of large numbers is to provide a frequentist perspective on capacities.Comment: 10 page

Origin and evolution of ultra-diffuse galaxies in different environments

We study the formation of ultra-diffuse galaxies (UDGs) using the cosmological hydrodynamical simulation TNG50 of the Illustris-TNG suite. We define UDGs as dwarf galaxies in the stellar mass range $\rm{7.5 \leq log (M_{\star} / M_{\odot}) \leq 9 }$ that are in the $5\%$ most extended tail of the simulated mass-size relation. This results in a sample of UDGs with half-mass radii $\rm{r_{h \star } \gtrsim 2 \ kpc}$ and surface brightness between $\rm{24.5}$ and $\rm{28 \ mag \ arcsec^{-2}}$, similar to definitions of UDGs in observations. The large cosmological volume in TNG50 allows for a comparison of UDGs properties in different environments, from the field to galaxy clusters with virial mass $\rm{M_{200} \sim 2 \times 10^{14} ~ M_{\odot}}$. All UDGs in our sample have dwarf-mass haloes ($\rm{M_{200}\sim 10^{11} ~ M_{\odot} }$) and show the same environmental trends as normal dwarfs: field UDGs are star-forming and blue while satellite UDGs are typically quiescent and red. The TNG50 simulation predicts UDGs that populate preferentially higher spin haloes and more massive haloes at fixed $\rm{M_{\star}}$ compared to non-UDG dwarfs. This applies also to most satellite UDGs, which are actually ``born" UDGs in the field and infall into groups and clusters without significant changes to their size. We find, however, a small subset of satellite UDGs ($\lesssim 10 \%$) with present-day stellar size a factor $\geq 1.5$ larger than at infall, confirming that tidal effects, particularly in the lower mass dwarfs, are also a viable formation mechanism for some of these dwarfs, although subdominant in this simulation.Comment: 17 pages, 13 figures, submitted to MNRA

Galaxy formation with local photoionization feedback – II. Effect of X-ray emission from binaries and hot gas

We study how X-rays from stellar binary systems and the hot intracluster medium (ICM) affect the radiative cooling rates of gas in galaxies. Our study uses a novel implementation of gas cooling in the moving-mesh hydrodynamics code arepo. X-rays from stellar binaries do not affect cooling at all as their emission spectrum is too hard to effectively couple with galactic gas. In contrast, X-rays from the ICM couple well with gas in the temperature range 10⁴–10⁶ K. Idealized simulations show that the hot halo radiation field has minimal impact on the dynamics of cooling flows in clusters because of the high virial temperature ( ≳ 10⁷ K), making the interaction between the gas and incident photons very ineffective. Satellite galaxies in cluster environments, on the other hand, experience a high radiation flux due to the emission from the host halo. Low-mass satellites ( ≲ 10¹² M⊙) in particular have virial temperatures that are exactly in the regime where the effect of the radiation field is maximal. Idealized simulations of satellite galaxies including only the effect of host halo radiation (no ram pressure stripping or tidal effects) fields show a drastic reduction in the amount of cool gas formed (∼40 per cent) on a short time-scale of about 0.5 Gyr. A galaxy merger simulation including all the other environmental quenching mechanisms, shows about 20 per cent reduction in the stellar mass of the satellite and about ∼30 per cent reduction in star formation rate after 1 Gyr due to the host hot halo radiation field. These results indicate that the hot halo radiation fields potentially play an important role in quenching galaxies in cluster environments

A Comparison of Circumgalactic Mg ii Absorption between the TNG50 Simulation and the MEGAFLOW Survey

The circumgalactic medium (CGM) contains information on gas flows around galaxies, such as accretion and supernova-driven winds, which are difficult to constrain from observations alone. Here, we use the high-resolution TNG50 cosmological magnetohydrodynamical simulation to study the properties and kinematics of the CGM around star-forming galaxies in 1011.5-1012 M o˙ halos at z ≃ 1 using mock Mg ii absorption lines, which we generate by postprocessing halos to account for photoionization in the presence of a UV background. We find that the Mg ii gas is a very good tracer of the cold CGM, which is accreting inward at inflow velocities of up to 50 km s-1. For sight lines aligned with the galaxy's major axis, we find that Mg ii absorption lines are kinematically shifted due to the cold CGM's significant corotation at speeds up to 50% of the virial velocity for impact parameters up to 60 kpc. We compare mock Mg ii spectra to observations from the MusE GAs FLow and Wind (MEGAFLOW) survey of strong Mg ii absorbers (EW2796 Å0 &gt; 0.5 Å). After matching the equivalent-width (EW) selection, we find that the mock Mg ii spectra reflect the diversity of observed kinematics and EWs from MEGAFLOW, even though the sight lines probe a very small fraction of the CGM. Mg ii absorption in higher-mass halos is stronger and broader than in lower-mass halos but has qualitatively similar kinematics. The median-specific angular momentum of the Mg ii CGM gas in TNG50 is very similar to that of the entire CGM and only differs from non-CGM components of the halo by normalization factors of ≲1 dex

The morphology and kinematics of the gaseous circumgalactic medium of Milky Way mass galaxies - II. Comparison of IllustrisTNG and Illustris simulation results

We have carried out a controlled comparison of the structural and kinematic properties of the circumgalactic medium (CGM) around Milky Way mass galaxies in the Illustris and IllustrisTNG simulations. Very striking differences are found. At z = 0, gas column density and temperature profiles at large radii (~100 kpc) correlate stronglywith disc gasmass fraction in Illustris, but not in TNG. The neutral gas at large radii is preferentially aligned in the plane of the disc in TNG, whereas it is much more isotropic in Illustris. The vertical coherence scale of the rotationally supported gas in the CGM is linked to the gas mass fraction of the galaxy in Illustris, but not in TNG. A tracer particle analysis allows us to show how these differences can be understood as a consequence of the different subgrid models of feedback in the two simulations. A study of spatially matched galaxies in the two simulations shows that in TNG, feedback by supernovae and active galactic nuclei (AGNs) helps to create an extended smooth reservoir of hot gas at high redshifts, which then cools to form a thin, rotationally supported disc at later times. In Illustris, AGNs dump heat in the form of hot gas bubbles that push diffuse material at large radii out of the halo. The disc is formed by accretion of colder, recycled material, and this results in more vertically extended gas distributions above and below the Galactic plane.We conclude that variations in the structure of gas around Milky Way mass galaxies are a sensitive probe of feedback physics in simulations and are worthy of more observational consideration in future