Financing the HIV response in sub-Saharan Africa from domestic sources: Moving beyond a normative approach

AbstractDespite optimism about the end of AIDS, the HIV response requires sustained financing into the future. Given flat-lining international aid, countries' willingness and ability to shoulder this responsibility will be central to access to HIV care. This paper examines the potential to expand public HIV financing, and the extent to which governments have been utilising these options.We develop and compare a normative and empirical approach. First, with data from the 14 most HIV-affected countries in sub-Saharan Africa, we estimate the potential increase in public HIV financing from economic growth, increased general revenue generation, greater health and HIV prioritisation, as well as from more unconventional and innovative sources, including borrowing, health-earmarked resources, efficiency gains, and complementary non-HIV investments. We then adopt a novel empirical approach to explore which options are most likely to translate into tangible public financing, based on cross-sectional econometric analyses of 92 low and middle-income country governments' most recent HIV expenditure between 2008 and 2012.If all fiscal sources were simultaneously leveraged in the next five years, public HIV spending in these 14 countries could increase from US$3.04 to US$10.84 billion per year. This could cover resource requirements in South Africa, Botswana, Namibia, Kenya, Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Swaziland, but not even half the requirements in the remaining countries. Our empirical results suggest that, in reality, even less fiscal space could be created (a reduction by over half) and only from more conventional sources. International financing may also crowd in public financing.Most HIV-affected lower-income countries in sub-Saharan Africa will not be able to generate sufficient public resources for HIV in the medium-term, even if they take very bold measures. Considerable international financing will be required for years to come. HIV funders will need to engage with broader health and development financing to improve government revenue-raising and efficiencies

Cost-Effectiveness of Introducing the SILCS Diaphragm in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Though South Africa has high contraceptive use, unintended pregnancies are still widespread. The SILCS diaphragm could reduce the number of women with unmet need by introducing a discreet, woman-initiated, non-hormonal barrier method to the contraceptive method mix. METHODS: A decision model was built to estimate the impact and cost-effectiveness of the introduction of the SILCS diaphragm in Gauteng among women with unmet need for contraception in terms of unintended and mistimed pregnancies averted, assuming that the available contraceptives on the market were not a satisfying option for those women. Full costs were estimated both from a provider's and user's perspective, which also accounts for women's travel and opportunity cost of time, assuming a 5% uptake among women with unmet contraceptive need. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is computed at five and 10 years after introduction to allow for a distribution of fixed costs over time. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis was conducted to incorporate decision uncertainty. RESULTS: The introduction of the SILCS diaphragm in Gauteng could prevent an estimated 8,365 unintended pregnancies and 2,117 abortions over five years, at an annual estimated cost of US$55 per woman. This comes to a cost per pregnancy averted of US$153 and US$171 from a user's and provider's perspectives, respectively, with slightly lower unit costs at 10 years. Major cost drivers will be the price of the SILCS diaphragm and the contraceptive gel, given their large contribution to total costs (around 60%). CONCLUSIONS: The introduction of the SILCS diaphragm in the public sector is likely to provide protection for some women for whom current contraceptive technologies are not an option. However to realize its potential, targeting will be needed to reach women with unmet need and those with likely high adherence. Further analyses are needed among potential users to optimize the introduction strategy

Impact of integration of sexual and reproductive health services on consultation duration times: results from the Integra Initiative.

The lack of human resources is a key challenge in scaling up of HIV services in Africa's health care system. Integrating HIV services could potentially increase their effectiveness and optimize the use of limited resources and clinical staff time. We examined the impact of integration of provider initiated HIV counselling and testing (PITC) and family planning (FP counselling and FP provision) services on duration of consultation to assess the impact of PITC and FP integration on staff workload. This study was conducted in 24 health facilities in Kenya under the Integra Initiative, a non-randomized, pre/post intervention trial to evaluate the impact of integrated HIV and sexual and reproductive health services on health and service outcomes. We compared the time spent providing PITC-only services, FP-only services and integrated PITC/FP services. We used log-linear regression to assess the impact of plausible determinants on the duration of clients' consultation times. Median consultation duration times were highest for PITC-only services (30 min), followed by integrated services (10 min) and FP-only services (8 min). Times for PITC-only and FP-only services were 69.7% higher (95% Confidence Intervals (CIs) 35.8-112.0) and 43.9% lower (95% CIs -55.4 to - 29.6) than times spent on these services when delivered as an integrated service, respectively. The reduction in consultation times with integration suggests a potential reduction in workload. The higher consultation time for PITC-only could be because more pre- and post-counselling is provided at these stand-alone services. In integrated PITC/FP services, the duration of the visit fell below that required by HIV testing guidelines, and service mix between counselling and testing substantially changed. Integration of HIV with FP services may compromise the quality of services delivered and care must be taken to clearly specify and monitor appropriate consultation duration times and procedures during the process of integrating HIV and FP services

Cost-effectiveness of Xpert MTB/RIF for tuberculosis diagnosis in South Africa: a real-world cost analysis and economic evaluation

Background In 2010 a new diagnostic test for tuberculosis, Xpert MTB/RIF, received a conditional programmatic recommendation from WHO. Several model-based economic evaluations predicted that Xpert would be cost-effective across sub-Saharan Africa. We investigated the cost-effectiveness of Xpert in the real world during national roll-out in South Africa. Methods For this real-world cost analysis and economic evaluation, we applied extensive primary cost and patient event data from the XTEND study, a pragmatic trial examining Xpert introduction for people investigated for tuberculosis in 40 primary health facilities (20 clusters) in South Africa enrolled between June 8, and Nov 16, 2012, to estimate the costs and cost per disability-adjusted life-year averted of introducing Xpert as the initial diagnostic test for tuberculosis, compared with sputum smear microscopy (the standard of care). Findings The mean total cost per study participant for tuberculosis investigation and treatment was US$312·58 (95$298·58 (246·35–350·82) in the microscopy group. The mean health service (provider) cost per study participant was $168·79 (149·16–188·42) for the Xpert group and$160·46 (143·24–177·68) for the microscopy group of the study. Considering uncertainty in both cost and effect using a wide range of willingness to pay thresholds, we found less than 3% probability that Xpert introduction improved the costeffectiveness of tuberculosis diagnostics. Interpretation After analysing extensive primary data collection during roll-out, we found that Xpert introduction in South Africa was cost-neutral, but found no evidence that Xpert improved the cost-effectiveness of tuberculosis diagnosis. Our study highlights the importance of considering implementation constraints, when predicting and evaluating the cost-effectiveness of new tuberculosis diagnostics in South Africa

Correction to: A Systematic Review of Methodological Variation in Healthcare Provider Perspective Tuberculosis Costing Papers Conducted in Low- and Middle-Income Settings, Using An Intervention-Standardised Unit Cost Typology.

In the original version of this article, Fig. 3 was published in an incorrect format. The correct figure is published with this correction

Financing essential HIV services: a new economic agenda.

Anna Vassall and colleagues discuss the need for, and challenges facing, innovative and sustainable financing of the HIV response. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary

Strengthening health systems to improve the value of tuberculosis diagnostics in South Africa: A cost and cost-effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND: In South Africa, replacing smear microscopy with Xpert-MTB/RIF (Xpert) for tuberculosis diagnosis did not reduce mortality and was cost-neutral. The unchanged mortality has been attributed to suboptimal Xpert implementation. We developed a mathematical model to explore how complementary investments may improve cost-effectiveness of the tuberculosis diagnostic algorithm. METHODS: Complementary investments in the tuberculosis diagnostic pathway were compared to the status quo. Investment scenarios following an initial Xpert test included actions to reduce pre-treatment loss-to-follow-up; supporting same-day clinical diagnosis of tuberculosis after a negative result; and improving access to further tuberculosis diagnostic tests following a negative result. We estimated costs, deaths and disability-adjusted-life-years (DALYs) averted from provider and societal perspectives. Sensitivity analyses explored the mediating influence of behavioural, disease- and organisational characteristics on investment effectiveness. FINDINGS: Among a cohort of symptomatic patients tested for tuberculosis, with an estimated active tuberculosis prevalence of 13%, reducing pre-treatment loss-to-follow-up from ~20% to ~0% led to a 4% (uncertainty interval [UI] 3; 4%) reduction in mortality compared to the Xpert scenario. Improving access to further tuberculosis diagnostic tests from ~4% to 90% among those with an initial negative Xpert result reduced overall mortality by 28% (UI 27; 28) at $39.70/ DALY averted. Effectiveness of investment scenarios to improve access to further diagnostic tests was dependent on a high return rate for follow-up visits. INTERPRETATION: Investing in direct and indirect costs to support the TB diagnostic pathway is potentially highly cost-effective

Under-ascertainment of Respiratory Syncytial Virus infection in adults due to diagnostic testing limitations:A systematic literature review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Most observational population-based studies identify RSV by nasal/nasopharyngeal swab RT-PCR only. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analyses to quantify specimen and diagnostic testing-based under-ascertainment of adult RSV infection. METHODS: EMBASE, PubMed and Web of Science were searched (Jan2000-Dec2021) for studies including adults using/comparing >1 RSV testing approach. We quantified test performance and RSV detection increase associated with using multiple specimen types. RESULTS: Among 8066 references identified, 154 met inclusion. Compared to RT-PCR, other methods were less sensitive: rapid antigen detection (pooled sensitivity, 64%), direct fluorescent antibody (83%), and viral culture (86%). Compared to singleplex PCR, multiplex PCR's sensitivity was lower (93%). Compared to nasal/nasopharyngeal swab RT-PCR alone, adding another specimen type increased detection: sputum RT-PCR, 52%; 4-fold rise in paired serology, 44%; and oropharyngeal swab RT-PCR, 28%. Sensitivity was lower in estimates limited to only adults (for RADT, DFA and Viral culture), and detection rate increases were largely comparable. CONCLUSIONS: RT-PCR, particularly singleplex testing, is the most sensitive RSV diagnostic test in adults. Adding additional specimen types to nasopharyngeal swab RT-PCR testing increased RSV detection. Synergistic effects of using ≥3 specimen types should be assessed, as this approach may improve the accuracy of adult RSV burden estimates