The real exchange rate of the dollar for a panel of OECD countries: Balassa-Samuelson or distribution sector effect?

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the role of productivity in the behaviour of the dollar real exchange rate against a group of OECD countries’ currencies. To do this, a general specification is tested, paying special attention to the breakdown of the productivity variable into tradables, non-tradables and distribution sector productivity. The applied methodology relies on the Pool Mean Group estimation methodology proposed by Pesaran et al (1999) to obtain error correction models in panels without imposing equal long and shortrun parameters for the panel. The results point to the relevance of the differences in the distribution sector productivity to explain the real exchange rate, especially in the European Union countries. These results are in accordance with New Open Macroeconomics models predictions concerning the role of both distribution sector productivity and fiscal expenditure on the real exchange rate.real exchange rates, productivity, cointegration, panel, distribution sector

Estimating exports and imports demand for Manufactured goods: The role of FDI

In this paper we examine the joint performance of FDI and trade under a full liberalization process consistent with New Trade Theory models. The testing framework consists of the estimation of demand for exports and imports of manufactured goods for a panel containing the majority of the EU countries as well as the US and Japan. The model includes as explanatory factors, not only the traditional determinants of trade, but also new ones, such as the stock of foreign direct investment (FDI). We apply a variety of panel unit root and cointegration tests to the cases of both homogeneous and heterogeneous panels. Whereas there is no evidence of cointegration when using just the traditional formulation, the results are favorable to the existence of long-run relationships linking the variables of the augmented model. Moreover, the results point mainly to a complementarity relationship between trade and FDI.

A panel cointegration approach to the estimation of the peseta real exchange rate

In this paper we estimate different specifications of a model for the determination of the bilateral real exchange rate of the peseta relative to nine European Union members. The model is based on Meese and Rogo (1988) monetary approach as extended by MacDonald (1998). The applied econometric techniques are the recent panel cointegration tests developed by Kao (1999), McCoskey and Kao (1998) and Pedroni (1999) for homogeneous and heterogeneous panels. The results are favorable to a model containing relative productivities in tradables and non-tradables and the real interest rate di¤erentials as explanatory variables.real exchange rate, European Monetary Union, panel cointegration

Re-examining CO2 emissions. Is the assessment of convergence meaningless?

This paper re-examines CO2 emissions in 22 OECD countries over the period 1870–2006. It contributes to the field of environmental economics trying to clarify the possible sources of the mixed evidence on CO2 emissions convergence. To this end we employ a detailed methodological strategy. First we start with standard linear tests as the ones proposed by Ng and Perron (2001). Then, using the Lee and Strazicich (2003) tests, we take into account the possible existence of structural breaks in the series. Finally, we apply a non-linear test within a smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) framework proposed by Kapetanios et al. (2003). The empirical evidence provided by our methodological strategy suggests that the original per capita CO2 emissions for the largest span, from 1870 to 2006, are stationary, so that to continue with the assessment of convergence in this context would not be adequate. However if we consider instead the period 1950-2006, per capita CO2 emissions are in a non-stationary local regime. Thus, in this case we proceed with the study of convergence. Bearing in mind plausible nonlinearities, CO2 emissions convergence is assessed using two versions of the Kapetanios et al. (2003) test, and conclude that there is no robust convergence among these 22 OECD countries.CO2 emissions, stationarity, non linear test, smooth transition, convergence.

The Euro-Dollar exchange rate: Is it fundamental?

In this paper we have applied two different but complementary techniques and approaches to the study of the evolution of the dollar real exchange rate in relation with the Euro-area currencies. First, using the panel cointegration methodology for both homogeneous and heterogeneous panels, we study the long-run relationship between the bilateral real exchange rate of the dollar versus 10 European countries, Canada and Japan. Second, in a time series framework, we use Euro-area aggregate or "synthetic" variables to study the behavior of the dollar/Euro real exchange rate. The selected specification obtained using the panel techniques is an eclectic one, that supports the Meese and Rogoff (1988) real interest rate differential model augmented with two supply-side variables: the real oil dependence and the relative productivity in the non-tradables. The Euro-area variables support this type of results, although an additional determinant from the demand-side should be added (the relative public expenditure) whereas the real oil variable would be only significant in the short-run.

THE ROLE OF COMMODITY TERMS OF TRADE IN DETERMINING THE REAL EXCHANGE RATES OF MEDITERRANEAN COUNTRIES

The aim of this paper is to investigate whether there exists a long run relationship between the real exchange rate and the commodity terms of trade in the so-called ¿Mediterranean¿ or MENA countries. These economies are good candidates for this type of formulation, as they can be considered commodity exporting countries. Using cointegration techniques, we find long run relationships linking the real exchange rate and a commodity-based measure of the terms of trade. Thus, commodity terms of trade are a potential explanation for the apparent non-stationarity of MENA countries real exchange rate previously found in the empirical literature.género, consejo de administración, valor de la empresa, endogeneidad real exchange rate, terms of trade, commodity prices

¿Debe reducirse el exceso de deuda en la eurozona?: principales alternativas

Los actuales niveles de endeudamiento soberano en la eurozona implican un flujo futuro de superávits públicos primarios que puede ralentizar la posible recuperación de las economías más endeudadas y, con ello, aumentar la carga de la deuda a medio plazo, entrando en un círculo vicioso de difícil solución. El Pacto Fiscal obliga a todos los Estados miembros de la eurozona a reducir anualmente en un 5% su exceso de deuda sobre el 60% del PIB a lo largo de 20 años. Por todo lo anterior, resulta necesario alcanzar un mecanismo que permita aliviar la carga de la deuda.The current levels of sovereign debt within the Eurozone imply a future flux of primary government surpluses that may slow down any possible recovery of the most heavily indebted economies, thus increasing the burden of debts in the medium term, which would involve entering a difficult-to-tackle vicious cycle. The Fiscal Compact obliges all Member States in the Eurozone to reduce by 5% on an annual basis their excess of debt on 60% of their GDP throughout 20 years. Given this scenario, it is necessary to envisage a mechanism allowing to relieve the burden of debt

Nonlinear adjustment in the real dollar-euro exchange rate: The role of the productivity differential as a fundamental

In this paper we analyze the influence of productivity differentials in the dynamics of the real dollar–euro exchange rate. Using nonlinear procedures for the estimation and testing of ESTAR models during the period 1970–2009 we find that the dollar–euro real exchange rate shows nonlinear mean reversion towards the fundamentals represented by the productivity differential. In addition, we provide evidence about the ability of this variable to capture the overvaluation and undervaluation of the dollar against the euro

Testing for hysteresis in unemployment in OECD countries. New evidence using stationarity panel tests with breaks

This paper tests hysteresis effects in unemployment using panel data for 19 OECD countries covering the period 1956-2001. The tests exploit the cross-section variations of the series, and additionally, allow for a different number of endogenous breakpoints in the unemployment series. The critical values are simulated based on our specic panel sizes and time periods. The ndings stress the importance of accounting for exogenous shocks in the series and give support to the natural-rate hypothesis of unemployment for the majority of the countries analyzed.structural breaks, panel unit root tests, hysteresis

- CAMBIO DE RÉGIMEN Y SOSTENIBILIDAD A LARGO PLAZO DE LA POLÍTICA FISCAL: EL CASO DE ESPAÑA

In this paper, the Spanish fiscal policy sustainability is tested for the period 1964-1996. The theoretical framework used in this paper draws from Quintos (1995) where a distinction between weak and strong conditions for deficit sustainability is pointed out. From an empirical point of view, new cointegration techniques allowing for structural breaks in the long-run relationships as well as in the cointegration parameters are implemented in order to reach a deeper insight. En este trabajo se contrasta la sostenibilidad de la política fiscal en la economía española para el periodo 1964-1996 utilizando el planteamiento teórico propuesto en Quintos (1995). Desde el punto de vista empírico, la novedad del estudio radica en la utilización de nuevas técnicas de cointegración que recogen la posibilidad de cambios estructurales, tanto en las relaciones de largo plazo como en los parámetros de cointegración.sostenibilidad, política fiscal, cointegración, cambio de régimen sustainability, fiscal policy, cointegration, regimen shifts.