Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change and Land Management Change on Soil Organic Carbon Content, Leached Carbon Rates and Dissolved Organic Carbon Concentrations

Climate change is projected to significantly affect the concentrations and mobility of contaminants, such as metals and pathogens, in soil, groundwater and surface water. Climate- and land management-induced changes in soil organic carbon and dissolved organic carbon levels may promote the transport of toxic substances, such as copper and cadmium, and pathogenic microorganisms, ultimately affecting the exposure of humans and ecosystems to these contaminants. In this study, we adopted the Century model to simulate past (1900 - 2010), present, and future (2010 - 2100) SOC and DOC levels for a sandy and a loamy soil typical for Central and Western European conditions under three land use types (forest, grassland and arable land) and several future scenarios addressing climate change and land management change. The climate scenarios were based on the KNMI'06 G+ and W+ scenarios from the Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute. The simulated current SOC levels were compared to observed SOC values derived from various Dutch soil databases, taking into account the different soil depths the simulated and observed values refer to. The simulated SOC levels were generally in line with the observed values for the different kinds of soil and land use types. Climate change scenarios resulted in a decrease in both SOC and DOC for the grassland systems, whereas in the arable land (on sandy soil) and in the forest systems, SOC was found to increase and DOC to decrease. A sensitivity analysis of the individual effects of changes in temperature and precipitation showed that the effect of temperature predominates over the effect of precipitation. A reduction in the application rates of artificial fertilizers leads to a decrease in the SOC stocks and the leached carbon rates in the arable land systems, but has a negligible effect on SOC and DOC levels of the grassland systems. This study demonstrated the ability of the Century model to simulate climate change and agricultural management effects on SOC dynamics. The following step of this study will involve the translation of the soil organic matter pools as simulated with Century model, into pools of different metal binding capacity to be used for the metal partitioning and leaching modelling

Assessment of the Effects of Climate Change on the Mobility and Distribution of Metals and Pathogens at the River Basin Scale

Anticipated climate change will most likely affect the mobility and distribution of contaminants, such as metals and pathogens, in soil, groundwater and surface water, ultimately affecting terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, as well as public health. For example, temperature-induced changes in soil structure may affect species composition, thereby promoting the transport of toxic substances, such as copper and cadmium, and pathogenic microorganisms. In the framework of a project to assess the effects of climate change on the concentrations and fluxes of metals and pathogens at the catchment scale, a dynamic, spatially distributed River Basin Model that integrates catchment-scale transport models will be developed. The River Basin Model will consist of modules describing the transfers and feedbacks between the environmental compartments soil, groundwater and surface water. The innovative aspect of this project involves the development of a novel soil module to include the effects of changing soil organic matter content and composition on the speciation and transport pathways of contaminants. For this purpose, a point-scale soil organic matter and nutrient dynamics model will be linked to a chemical speciation and transport model, which allows a quantitative assessment of climate change effects on the mobility of metals and pathogens in various soil types. The results of this model analyses will be used to parameterize a large-scale soil module to be included in the river basin model. To assess the impact of climate change and changes in land use on the future distributions of contaminant concentrations in the major exposure pathways to man and ecosystems, a selected number of scenarios addressing climate change, agricultural practices (land use change, land management), current policies and mitigation strategies, will be defined. For each scenario, the River Basin Model will be used to project the probability distributions of contaminant concentrations in soil, groundwater and surface water. The River Basin Model will be tested in a moderately-sized river basin in the Netherlands and will feed input to a probabilistic risk assessment model that is being developed in a parallel project

The response of metal leaching from soils to climate change and land management in a temperate lowland catchment

<p>Changes in soil hydrology as a result of climate change or changes in land management may affect metal release and leaching from soils. The aim of this study is to assess the cascading response of SOM and DOC levels and metal leaching to climate change in the medium-sized lowland Dommel catchment in the southern part of the Netherlands. We implemented the CENTURY model in a spatial setting to simulate SOM, DOC, and water dynamics in topsoils of the Dutch portion of the Dommel catchment under various climate and land management scenarios. These CENTURY model outputs were subsequently used to calculate changes in the topsoil concentrations, solubility, and leaching of cadmium (Cd) and zinc (Zn) for current (1991–2010) and future (2081–2100) conditions using empirical partition-relations. Since the metal leaching model could not be evaluated quantitatively against measured values, we focus mainly on the trends in the projected metal concentrations and leaching rates for the different scenarios. Our results show that under all climate and land management scenarios, the SOM contents in the topsoil of the Dommel catchment are projected to increase by about 10% and the DOC concentrations to decrease by about 20% in the period from present to 2100. These changes in SOM and DOC only have a minor influence on metal concentrations and leaching rates under the climate change scenarios. Our scenario calculations show a considerable decrease in topsoil Cd concentrations in the next century as a result of increased percolation rates. Zinc, however, shows an increase due to agricultural inputs to soil via manure application. These trends are primarily controlled by the balance between atmospheric and agricultural inputs and output via leaching. While SOM and DOC are important controls on the spatial variation in metal mobility and leaching rates, climate-induced changes in SOM and DOC only have a minor influence on metal concentrations and leaching rates. The climate-induced changes in metal concentrations in both the topsoil and the soil leachate are primarily driven by changes in precipitation and associated water percolation rates.</p

Effects of climate change and land management on soil organic carbon dynamics and carbon leaching in northwestern Europe

Climate change and land management practices are projected to significantly affect soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) leaching from soils. In this modelling study, we adopted the Century model to simulate past (1906-2012), present, and future (2013-2100) SOC and DOC levels for sandy and loamy soils typical of northwestern European conditions under three land use types (forest, grassland, and arable land) and several future scenarios addressing climate change and land management change. To our knowledge, this is the first time that the Century model has been applied to assess the effects of climate change and land management on DOC concentrations and leaching rates, which, in combination with SOC, play a major role in metal transport through soil. The simulated current SOC levels were generally in line with the observed values for the different kinds of soil and land use types. The climate change scenarios result in a decrease in both SOC and DOC for the agricultural systems, whereas for the forest systems, SOC is projected to slightly increase and DOC to decrease. An analysis of the sole effects of changes in temperature and changes in precipitation showed that, for SOC, the temperature effect predominates over the precipitation effect, whereas for DOC the precipitation effect is more prominent. A reduction in the application rates of fertilisers under the land management scenario leads to a decrease in the SOC stocks and the DOC leaching rates for the arable land systems, but it has a negligible effect on SOC and DOC levels for the grassland systems. Our study demonstrated the ability of the Century model to simulate climate change and agricultural management effects on SOC dynamics and DOC leaching, providing a robust tool for the assessment of carbon sequestration and the implications for contaminant transport in soils

The response of metal leaching from soils to climate change and land management in a temperate lowland catchment

Changes in soil hydrology as a result of climate change or changes in land management may affect metal release and leaching from soils. The aim of this study is to assess the cascading response of SOM and DOC levels and metal leaching to climate change in the medium-sized lowland Dommel catchment in the southern part of the Netherlands. We implemented the CENTURY model in a spatial setting to simulate SOM, DOC, and water dynamics in topsoils of the Dutch portion of the Dommel catchment under various climate and land management scenarios. These CENTURY model outputs were subsequently used to calculate changes in the topsoil concentrations, solubility, and leaching of cadmium (Cd) and zinc (Zn) for current (1991–2010) and future (2081–2100) conditions using empirical partition-relations. Since the metal leaching model could not be evaluated quantitatively against measured values, we focus mainly on the trends in the projected metal concentrations and leaching rates for the different scenarios. Our results show that under all climate and land management scenarios, the SOM contents in the topsoil of the Dommel catchment are projected to increase by about 10% and the DOC concentrations to decrease by about 20% in the period from present to 2100. These changes in SOM and DOC only have a minor influence on metal concentrations and leaching rates under the climate change scenarios. Our scenario calculations show a considerable decrease in topsoil Cd concentrations in the next century as a result of increased percolation rates. Zinc, however, shows an increase due to agricultural inputs to soil via manure application. These trends are primarily controlled by the balance between atmospheric and agricultural inputs and output via leaching. While SOM and DOC are important controls on the spatial variation in metal mobility and leaching rates, climate-induced changes in SOM and DOC only have a minor influence on metal concentrations and leaching rates. The climate-induced changes in metal concentrations in both the topsoil and the soil leachate are primarily driven by changes in precipitation and associated water percolation rates

The response of metal leaching from soils to climate change and land management in a temperate lowland catchment

Changes in soil hydrology as a result of climate change or changes in land management may affect metal release and leaching from soils. The aim of this study is to assess the cascading response of SOM and DOC levels and metal leaching to climate change in the medium-sized lowland Dommel catchment in the southern part of the Netherlands. We implemented the CENTURY model in a spatial setting to simulate SOM, DOC, and water dynamics in topsoils of the Dutch portion of the Dommel catchment under various climate and land management scenarios. These CENTURY model outputs were subsequently used to calculate changes in the topsoil concentrations, solubility, and leaching of cadmium (Cd) and zinc (Zn) for current (1991–2010) and future (2081–2100) conditions using empirical partition-relations. Since the metal leaching model could not be evaluated quantitatively against measured values, we focus mainly on the trends in the projected metal concentrations and leaching rates for the different scenarios. Our results show that under all climate and land management scenarios, the SOM contents in the topsoil of the Dommel catchment are projected to increase by about 10% and the DOC concentrations to decrease by about 20% in the period from present to 2100. These changes in SOM and DOC only have a minor influence on metal concentrations and leaching rates under the climate change scenarios. Our scenario calculations show a considerable decrease in topsoil Cd concentrations in the next century as a result of increased percolation rates. Zinc, however, shows an increase due to agricultural inputs to soil via manure application. These trends are primarily controlled by the balance between atmospheric and agricultural inputs and output via leaching. While SOM and DOC are important controls on the spatial variation in metal mobility and leaching rates, climate-induced changes in SOM and DOC only have a minor influence on metal concentrations and leaching rates. The climate-induced changes in metal concentrations in both the topsoil and the soil leachate are primarily driven by changes in precipitation and associated water percolation rates.</p

Groundwater numerical modeling and environmental design using artificial neural networks and differential evolution

Summarization: A Differential Evolution (DE) algorithm is combined with an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to examine different operational strategies for the productive pumping wells located in the Northern part of Rhodes Island in Greece. The objective is to maximize the pumping rate without violating the environmental constraints associated with the water table drawdown at critical locations. The hydraulic head field is simulated using a groundwater flow simulator that solves numerically a system of partial differential equations. Successive calls to the simulator are used to provide the training data to the ANN. Then the ANN is used as an approximation model to the simulator, successively called by the DE algorithm to evaluate candidate solutions. The adopted procedure provides the ability to test different scenarios, concerning the optimization constraints, without retraining of the ANN, which significantly reduces the computational cost of the procedure.Παρουσιάστηκε στο: 12th International Conference Knowledge-Based Intelligent Information and Engineering System

Assessment of the Effects of Climate Change on the Mobility and Distribution of Metals and Pathogens at the River Basin Scale

Anticipated climate change will most likely affect the mobility and distribution of contaminants, such as metals and pathogens, in soil, groundwater and surface water, ultimately affecting terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, as well as public health. For example, temperature-induced changes in soil structure may affect species composition, thereby promoting the transport of toxic substances, such as copper and cadmium, and pathogenic microorganisms. In the framework of a project to assess the effects of climate change on the concentrations and fluxes of metals and pathogens at the catchment scale, a dynamic, spatially distributed River Basin Model that integrates catchment-scale transport models will be developed. The River Basin Model will consist of modules describing the transfers and feedbacks between the environmental compartments soil, groundwater and surface water. The innovative aspect of this project involves the development of a novel soil module to include the effects of changing soil organic matter content and composition on the speciation and transport pathways of contaminants. For this purpose, a point-scale soil organic matter and nutrient dynamics model will be linked to a chemical speciation and transport model, which allows a quantitative assessment of climate change effects on the mobility of metals and pathogens in various soil types. The results of this model analyses will be used to parameterize a large-scale soil module to be included in the river basin model. To assess the impact of climate change and changes in land use on the future distributions of contaminant concentrations in the major exposure pathways to man and ecosystems, a selected number of scenarios addressing climate change, agricultural practices (land use change, land management), current policies and mitigation strategies, will be defined. For each scenario, the River Basin Model will be used to project the probability distributions of contaminant concentrations in soil, groundwater and surface water. The River Basin Model will be tested in a moderately-sized river basin in the Netherlands and will feed input to a probabilistic risk assessment model that is being developed in a parallel project

Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change and Land Management Change on Soil Organic Carbon Content, Leached Carbon Rates and Dissolved Organic Carbon Concentrations

Climate change is projected to significantly affect the concentrations and mobility of contaminants, such as metals and pathogens, in soil, groundwater and surface water. Climate- and land management-induced changes in soil organic carbon and dissolved organic carbon levels may promote the transport of toxic substances, such as copper and cadmium, and pathogenic microorganisms, ultimately affecting the exposure of humans and ecosystems to these contaminants. In this study, we adopted the Century model to simulate past (1900 - 2010), present, and future (2010 - 2100) SOC and DOC levels for a sandy and a loamy soil typical for Central and Western European conditions under three land use types (forest, grassland and arable land) and several future scenarios addressing climate change and land management change. The climate scenarios were based on the KNMI'06 G+ and W+ scenarios from the Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute. The simulated current SOC levels were compared to observed SOC values derived from various Dutch soil databases, taking into account the different soil depths the simulated and observed values refer to. The simulated SOC levels were generally in line with the observed values for the different kinds of soil and land use types. Climate change scenarios resulted in a decrease in both SOC and DOC for the grassland systems, whereas in the arable land (on sandy soil) and in the forest systems, SOC was found to increase and DOC to decrease. A sensitivity analysis of the individual effects of changes in temperature and precipitation showed that the effect of temperature predominates over the effect of precipitation. A reduction in the application rates of artificial fertilizers leads to a decrease in the SOC stocks and the leached carbon rates in the arable land systems, but has a negligible effect on SOC and DOC levels of the grassland systems. This study demonstrated the ability of the Century model to simulate climate change and agricultural management effects on SOC dynamics. The following step of this study will involve the translation of the soil organic matter pools as simulated with Century model, into pools of different metal binding capacity to be used for the metal partitioning and leaching modelling