Assessing the Equilibrium Exchange Rate of the Cyprus Pound at the time of Euro Adoption

One of the landmark events in the recent history of Cyprus was the adoption of the euro on 1 January 2008. A crucial element of the preparatory discussions between the Cypriot authorities and the competent European bodies was the search for an agreement on the conversion rate of the Cyprus pound vis-a-vis the euro, which was decided by the Economic and Financial Affairs Council (ECOFIN) on 10 July 2007. This paper describes part of the work undertaken at the Central Bank of Cyprus as background material for these discussions. Using a qualitative and quantitative approach, the paper suggests that the exchange parity rate of the Cyprus pound vis-a-vis the euro which existed for a number of years prior to euro adoption was broadly in line with economic fundamentals. Evidence examined include the stability of the Cyprus pound vis-a-vis the euro within a credible exchange rate policy framework, robust growth, low levels of unemployment, high Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) coverage of the current account deficit as well as low and stable inflation. This conclusion is also supported by a model-based approach using the Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate (FEER) framework.Equilibrium exchange rate, euro adoption, FEER

Ultrasound methodology used to construct the fetal growth standards in the INTERGROWTH-21st Project

A unified protocol is essential to ensure that fetal ultrasound measurements taken in multicentre research studies are accurate and reproducible. This paper describes the methodology used to take two-dimensional, ultrasound measurements in the longitudinal, fetal growth component of the INTERGROWTH-21st Project. These standardised methods should minimise the systematic errors associated with pooling data from different study sites. They represent a model for carrying out similar research studies in the future

International gestational age-specific centiles for umbilical artery doppler indices: A longitudinal prospective cohort study of the INTERGROWTH-21st project

Background: Reference values for umbilical artery Doppler indices are used clinically to assess fetal well-being. However, many studies that have produced reference charts have important methodologic limitations, and these result in significant heterogeneity of reported reference ranges.Objectives: To produce international gestational age-specific centiles for umbilical artery Doppler indices based on longitudinal data and the same rigorous methodology used in the original Fetal Growth Longitudinal Study of the INTERGROWTH-21st Project.Study design: In Phase II of the INTERGROWTH-21st Project (the INTERBIO-21st Study), we prospectively continued enrolling pregnant women according to the same protocol from 3 of the original populations in Pelotas (Brazil), Nairobi (Kenya), and Oxford (United Kingdom) that had participated in the Fetal Growth Longitudinal Study. Women with a singleton pregnancy were recruited at weeks\u27 gestation, confirmed by ultrasound measurement of crown-rump length, and then underwent standardized ultrasound every 5±1 weeks until delivery. From 22 weeks of gestation umbilical artery indices (pulsatility index, resistance index, and systolic/diastolic ratio) were measured in a blinded fashion, using identical equipment and a rigorously standardized protocol. Newborn size at birth was assessed using the international INTERGROWTH-21st Standards, and infants had detailed assessment of growth, nutrition, morbidity, and motor development at 1 and 2 years of age. The appropriateness of pooling data from the 3 study sites was assessed using variance component analysis and standardized site differences. Umbilical artery indices were modeled as functions of the gestational age using an exponential, normal distribution with second-degree fractional polynomial smoothing; goodness of fit for the overall models was assessed.Results: Of the women enrolled at the 3 sites, 1629 were eligible for this study; 431 (27%) met the entry criteria for the construction of normative centiles, similar to the proportion seen in the original fetal growth longitudinal study. They contributed a total of 1243 Doppler measures to the analysis; 74% had 3 measures or more. The healthy low-risk status of the population was confirmed by the low rates of preterm birth (4.9%) and preeclampsia (0.7%). There were no neonatal deaths and satisfactory growth, health, and motor development of the infants at 1 and 2 years of age were documented. Only a very small proportion (2.8%-6.5%) of the variance of Doppler indices was due to between-site differences; in addition, standardized site difference estimates were marginally outside this threshold in only 1 of 27 comparisons, and this supported the decision to pool data from the 3 study sites. All 3 Doppler indices decreased with advancing gestational age. The 3rd, 5th 10th, 50th, 90th, 95th, and 97th centiles according to gestational age for each of the 3 indices are provided, as well as equations to allow calculation of any value as a centile and z scores. The mean pulsatility index according to gestational age = 1.02944 + 77.7456*(gestational age)-2 - 0.000004455*gestational age3.Conclusion: We present here international gestational age-specific normative centiles for umbilical artery Doppler indices produced by studying healthy, low-risk pregnant women living in environments with minimal constraints on fetal growth. The centiles complement the existing INTERGROWTH-21st Standards for assessment of fetal well-being

The objectives, design and implementation of the INTERGROWTH-21st Project

INTERGROWTH-21st is a multicentre, multiethnic, populationbased project, being conducted in eight geographical areas (Brazil, China, India, Italy, Kenya, Oman, UK and USA), with technical support from four global specialised units, to study growth, health and nutrition from early pregnancy to infancy. It aims to produce prescriptive growth standards, which conceptually extend the World Health Organization (WHO) Multicentre Growth Reference Study (MGRS) to cover fetal and newborn life. The new international standards will describe: (1) fetal growth assessed by clinical and ultrasound measures; (2) postnatal growth of term and preterm infants up to 2 years of age; and (3) the relationship between birthweight, length and head circumference, gestational age and perinatal outcomes. As the project has selected healthy cohorts with no obvious risk factors for intrauterine growth restriction, these standards will describe how all fetuses and newborns should grow, as opposed to traditional charts that describe how some have grown at a given place and time. These growth patterns will be related to morbidity and mortality to identify levels of perinatal risk. Additional aims include phenotypic characterisation of the preterm and impaired fetal growth syndromes and development of a prediction model, based on multiple ultrasound measurements, to estimate gestational age for use in pregnant women without access to early/frequent antenatal care

Monitoring human growth and development: a continuum from the womb to the classroom

A comprehensive set of fully integrated anthropometric measures is needed to evaluate human growth from conception to infancy so that consistent judgments can be made about the appropriateness of fetal and infant growth. At present, there are 2 barriers to this strategy. First, descriptive reference charts, which are derived from local, unselected samples with inadequate methods and poor characterization of their putatively healthy populations, commonly are used rather than prescriptive standards. The use of prescriptive standards is justified by the extensive biologic, genetic, and epidemiologic evidence that skeletal growth is similar from conception to childhood across geographic populations, when health, nutrition, environmental, and health care needs are met. Second, clinicians currently screen fetuses, newborn infants, and infants at all levels of care with a wide range of charts and cutoff points, often with limited appreciation of the underlying population or quality of the study that generated the charts. Adding to the confusion, infants are evaluated after birth with a single prescriptive tool: the World Health Organization Child Growth Standards, which were derived from healthy, breastfed newborn infants, infants, and young children from populations that have been exposed to few growth-restricting factors. The International Fetal and Newborn Growth Consortium for the 21st Century Project addressed these issues by providing international standards for gestational age estimation, first-trimester fetal size, fetal growth, newborn size for gestational age, and postnatal growth of preterm infants, all of which complement the World Health Organization Child Growth Standards conceptually, methodologically, and analytically. Hence, growth and development can now, for the first time, be monitored globally across the vital first 1000 days and all the way to 5 years of age. It is clear that an integrative approach to monitoring growth and development from pregnancy to school age is desirable, scientifically supported, and likely to improve care, referral patterns, and reporting systems. Such integration can be achieved only through the use of international growth standards, especially in increasingly diverse, mixed ancestry populations. Resistance to new scientific developments has been hugely problematic in medicine; however, we are confident that the obstetric and neonatal communities will join their pediatric colleagues worldwide in the adoption of this integrative strategy

Registration of 3D fetal neurosonography and MRI.

We propose a method for registration of 3D fetal brain ultrasound with a reconstructed magnetic resonance fetal brain volume. This method, for the first time, allows the alignment of models of the fetal brain built from magnetic resonance images with 3D fetal brain ultrasound, opening possibilities to develop new, prior information based image analysis methods for 3D fetal neurosonography. The reconstructed magnetic resonance volume is first segmented using a probabilistic atlas and a pseudo ultrasound image volume is simulated from the segmentation. This pseudo ultrasound image is then affinely aligned with clinical ultrasound fetal brain volumes using a robust block-matching approach that can deal with intensity artefacts and missing features in the ultrasound images. A qualitative and quantitative evaluation demonstrates good performance of the method for our application, in comparison with other tested approaches. The intensity average of 27 ultrasound images co-aligned with the pseudo ultrasound template shows good correlation with anatomy of the fetal brain as seen in the reconstructed magnetic resonance image

Achieving accurate estimates of fetal gestational age and personalised predictions of fetal growth based on data from an international prospective cohort study: a population-based machine learning study.

Background: Preterm birth is a major global health challenge, the leading cause of death in children under 5 years of age, and a key measure of a population's general health and nutritional status. Current clinical methods of estimating fetal gestational age are often inaccurate. For example, between 20 and 30 weeks of gestation, the width of the 95% prediction interval around the actual gestational age is estimated to be 18-36 days, even when the best ultrasound estimates are used. The aims of this study are to improve estimates of fetal gestational age and provide personalised predictions of future growth. Methods: Using ultrasound-derived, fetal biometric data, we developed a machine learning approach to accurately estimate gestational age. The accuracy of the method is determined by reference to exactly known facts pertaining to each fetus-specifically, intervals between ultrasound visits-rather than the date of the mother's last menstrual period. The data stem from a sample of healthy, well-nourished participants in a large, multicentre, population-based study, the International Fetal and Newborn Growth Consortium for the 21st Century (INTERGROWTH-21st). The generalisability of the algorithm is shown with data from a different and more heterogeneous population (INTERBIO-21st Fetal Study). Findings: In the context of two large datasets, we estimated gestational age between 20 and 30 weeks of gestation with 95% confidence to within 3 days, using measurements made in a 10-week window spanning the second and third trimesters. Fetal gestational age can thus be estimated in the 20-30 weeks gestational age window with a prediction interval 3-5 times better than with any previous algorithm. This will enable improved management of individual pregnancies. 6-week forecasts of the growth trajectory for a given fetus are accurate to within 7 days. This will help identify at-risk fetuses more accurately than currently possible. At population level, the higher accuracy is expected to improve fetal growth charts and population health assessments. Interpretation: Machine learning can circumvent long-standing limitations in determining fetal gestational age and future growth trajectory, without recourse to often inaccurately known information, such as the date of the mother's last menstrual period. Using this algorithm in clinical practice could facilitate the management of individual pregnancies and improve population-level health. Upon publication of this study, the algorithm for gestational age estimates will be provided for research purposes free of charge via a web portal. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Office of Science (US Department of Energy), US National Science Foundation, and National Institute for Health Research Oxford Biomedical Research Centre

INTERGROWTH-21st Project international INTER-NDA standards for child development at 2 years of age: an international prospective population-based study.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the construction of the international INTERGROWTH-21st Neurodevelopment Assessment (INTER-NDA) standards for child development at 2 years by reporting the cognitive, language, motor and behaviour outcomes in optimally healthy and nourished children in the INTERGROWTH-21st Project. DESIGN: Population-based cohort study, the INTERGROWTH-21st Project. SETTING: Brazil, India, Italy, Kenya and the UK. PARTICIPANTS: 1181 children prospectively recruited from early fetal life according to the prescriptive WHO approach, and confirmed to be at low risk of adverse perinatal and postnatal outcomes. PRIMARY MEASURES: Scaled INTER-NDA domain scores for cognition, language, fine and gross motor skills and behaviour; vision outcomes measured on the Cardiff tests; attentional problems and emotional reactivity measured on the respective subscales of the preschool Child Behaviour Checklist; and the age of acquisition of the WHO gross motor milestones. RESULTS: Scaled INTER-NDA domain scores are presented as centiles, which were constructed according to the prescriptive WHO approach and excluded children born preterm and those with significant postnatal/neurological morbidity. For all domains, except negative behaviour, higher scores reflect better outcomes and the threshold for normality was defined as ≥10th centile. For the INTER-NDA's cognitive, fine motor, gross motor, language and positive behaviour domains these are ≥38.5, ≥25.7, ≥51.7, ≥17.8 and ≥51.4, respectively. The threshold for normality for the INTER-NDA's negative behaviour domain is ≤50.0, that is, ≤90th centile. At 22-30 months of age, the cohort overlapped with the WHO motor milestone centiles, showed low postnatal morbidity (<10%), and vision outcomes, attentional problems and emotional reactivity scores within the respective normative ranges. CONCLUSIONS: From this large, healthy and well-nourished, international cohort, we have constructed, using the WHO prescriptive methodology, international INTER-NDA standards for child development at 2 years of age. Standards, rather than references, are recommended for population-level screening and the identification of children at risk of adverse outcomes

International values for haemoglobin distributions in healthy pregnant women.

BACKGROUND: Anaemia in pregnancy is a global health problem with associated morbidity and mortality. METHODS: A secondary analysis of prospective, population-based study from 2009 to 2016 to generate maternal haemoglobin normative centiles in uncomplicated pregnancies in women receiving optimal antenatal care. Pregnant women were enrolled <14 weeks' gestation in the Fetal Growth Longitudinal Study (FGLS) of the INTERGROWTH-21st Project which involved eight geographically diverse urban areas in Brazil, China, India, Italy, Kenya, Oman, United Kingdom and United States. At each 5 ± 1 weekly visit until delivery, information was collected about the pregnancy, as well as the results of blood tests taken as part of routine antenatal care that complemented the study's requirements, including haemoglobin values. FINDINGS: A total of 3502 (81%) of 4321 women who delivered a live, singleton newborn with no visible congenital anomalies, contributed at least one haemoglobin value. Median haemoglobin concentrations ranged from 114.6 to 121.4 g/L, 94 to 103 g/L at the 3rd centile, and from 135 to 141 g/L at the 97th centile. The lowest values were seen between 31 and 32 weeks' gestation, representing a mean drop of 6.8 g/L compared to 14 weeks' gestation. The percentage variation in maternal haemoglobin within-site was 47% of the total variance compared to 13% between sites. INTERPRETATION: We have generated International, gestational age-specific, smoothed centiles for maternal haemoglobin concentration compatible with better pregnancy outcomes, as well as adequate neonatal and early childhood morbidity, growth and development up to 2 years of age. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Grant number 49038