The Impact of Population Heterogeneities and Disease Interventions on Herd Immunity: A Case Study of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Ontario

In epidemiology, herd immunity refers to the population level of immunity required to prevent or extinguish a large disease outbreak. In models with homogeneously mixing assumptions and without demographic structures, the herd immunity level may be different from that in heterogeneous models. With the COVID-19 pandemic in Ontario as a case study, a comprehensive deterministic mathematical model of disease spread with age and contact pattern variations was developed to examine the required herd immunity for different variants and compare with theoretical values obtained using homogeneous assumptions. The effects of non-pharmaceutical (testing/isolation of silent infections) interventions and vaccination on epidemic progression and herd immunity were investigated. With the inclusion of age and contact pattern structures, the resulting herd immunity level required to end an epidemic under the assumptions of long-term protection (without re-infection) is lower than theoretical values, even for more transmissible variants. While waning immunity and re-infection results in an oscillation in herd immunity levels in the population, subsequent epidemic peaks are less amplified, suggesting that even with increased variant transmissibility, infections of any variant allow for population immunity to rise, leading to an endemic state

Emotional Abilities in Children with Oppositional Defiant Disorder (ODD): Impairments in Perspective-Taking and Understanding Mixed Emotions are Associated with High Callous-Unemotional Traits

Most studies of emotion abilities in disruptive children focus on emotion expression recognition. This study compared 74 children aged 4-8 years with ODD to 45 comparison children (33 healthy; 12 with an anxiety disorder) on behaviourally assessed measures of emotion perception, emotion perspective-taking, knowledge of emotions causes and understanding ambivalent emotions and on parent-reported cognitive and affective empathy. Adjusting for child's sex, age and expressive language ODD children showed a paucity in attributing causes to emotions but no other deficits relative to the comparison groups. ODD boys with high levels of callous-unemotional traits (CU) (n = 22) showed deficits relative to low CU ODD boys (n = 25) in emotion perspective-taking and in understanding ambivalent emotions. Low CU ODD boys did not differ from the healthy typically developing boys (n = 12). Impairments in emotion perceptive-taking and understanding mixed emotions in ODD boys are associated with the presence of a high level of CU